Monday, August 31, 2009

Qualifier Preview: Denmark at Portugal

This is the first of several expanded previews of key South Africa 2010 qualifying matches among the 40 (!) being contested in the Americas, Africa and Europe this weekend.

Almost all of the matches have some meaning, even this close to the draw. But some are pregnant with significance, and we will look at several this week.

(Note: A general preview of the five South American matches, by my distinguished colleague Armando Varela, appeared on this blog a few days ago.)

We begin with a crucial match pitting struggling Portugal at Group 1 leader Denmark on Saturday.

If we had looked at this group a year ago, we would have pegged Portugal as the favorite. Fourth at the 2006 World Cup, finalists at the 2004 Euro championships, quarterfinalists in Euro 2008 ...

Then they started playing the games, and the Portuguese lost at home to Denmark, 3-2, and were held at home by Sweden, 0-0, and that's why a team loaded with international stars is, basically, desperate for a victory at Copenhagen.

Portugal certainly looks imposing. From forward Cristiano Ronaldo, arguably the best player in the world, to midfield veterans such as Deco, Duda, Maniche and defenders Basingwa and Pepe ... why is this team loitering in third place in the group, ahead of Sweden only on goals scored?

The aforementioned failure to win at home is part of it. So is an oddly erratic offense (eight goals from six matches), given the star power on the pitch.

Ronaldo has yet to score, in four matches played. Nani and Hugo Almeida each have two goals, and that isn't quite where you would expect half your offense to come from. (And Almeida isn't even in the team for this match.)

Carlos Queiroz, the coach, has called in another Brazilian-born player, the forward Liedson, perhaps looking for that bit of finishing the Portguese have been lacking.

The surprising Danes, meanwhile, can take a big step to securing Group 1 with a home victory.

After beginning qualifying with a scoreless draw at Hungary, Denmark has reeled off five consecutive victories, and gets three of its last four matches at home -- the only road game being at unimpressive Albania.

Denmark has dominated the opposition, with a 13-2 goals for/against ratio.

Soren Larsen, a forward for Ligue 1 team Toulouse, has five goals, albeit all of them against Malta or Albania. Christian Poulson, a tough midfielder who plays for Juventus, has scored two goals.

Other stalwarts in the Danish campaign to date include Aresnal forward Niklas Bendtner, veteran defender Lars Jacobsen, who plays with Blackburn; center back Daniel Agger, who plays for Liverpool; Ajax midfielder Dennis Rommedahl and veteran Stoke City keeper Thomas Sorensen, who saved a penalty in the 10th minute of a match at Sweden, a match the Danes went on to win, 1-0.

Denmark will bring a major size advantage to the match. Larsen, Bendtner and Sorensen all are 6-foot-4 or better. Portugal is a little side, and it can't count on scoring on restarts in the attacking end.

Denmark can come close to assuring itself of no worse than a second-place finish with a home victory, and would be exceedingly hard to catch for first, actually, especially if Hungary doesn't win at home against Sweden on Saturday. Portugal, meanwhile, badly needs a point, at the least, to reassure its fans it hasn't fallen into some international slough of despond -- despite suiting up Ronaldo and a cast of stars.
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Sunday, August 30, 2009

Brazil Exports Soccer Talent into 2010 Qualifying*

(* -- I found one more! See below.)

Call them The Boys from Brazil.

What happens when you play for the greatest soccer nation on the planet, and you're good ... but not good enough to join the national team and play the joga bonito for Brasil in the World Cup?

Then you, a Brazilian soccer player, go play somewhere else and become (among others) a German, an Azeri, a Spaniard, a Belgian, a Croatian, a Mexican, a Pole ...

A few decades ago, national soccer teams were almost uniformly made up of players born within the borders of that nation. There were fairly tough rules about foreign-born players gaining acceptance on another nation's teams.

But those barriers seem to have crumbled. And no one has benefited from it as have Brazilian expatriates -- and the soccer nations that take them in.

Here is a list of Brazilians I found today while poring over rosters of World Cup-contending teams.

(Remember, every single one of these guys was born in Brazil.)

Cacau, Germany. A forward with Stuttgart, and (since February) a German citizen -- and one of the first naturalized players to have an impact on the Mannschaft.

Deco, Portugal. No it's not as weird when Brazilians go play for the mother country. Maybe that's why Portugal has three Brazilians on its current national team, including this veteran midfielder.

Pepe, Portugal. A forward who has been "Portuguese" since 2007, just in time to help with Euro Cup qualifying.

Liedson, Portugal. A defender who has just been called up for the first time.

Leandro Gomes, Azerbaijan. Like most of the guys on this list, Gomes went overseas to play (in his case, at Baku, capital of Azerbaijan), stayed long enough to pick up a passport and has been an Azeri regular of late.

Marcos Senna, Spain. He bucked the trend of going to Portugal, if a Brazilian is going to go to Iberia, and went to Spain, instead, and was naturalized in 2006. He has been an integral midfield presence for Spain for the past few years. He was outstanding in the 2008 Euro Cup.

Igor De Camargo, Belgium. Not quite as Belgian as Hercule Poirot, and got his passport just this year, so let the ink dry a bit more. A midfielder.

Eduardo da Silva, Croatia. A striker who wound up at Dinamo Zagreb, got his papers, now is a striker for the Croats. The only Brazilian I found among any of the Balkan teams.

Emerson, Qatar. A striker who played in Qatar long enough to get a passport, and was part of the (narrowly) failed campaign to get out of the Asia Group 1.

Junior Marcone, Qatar. Another Brazilian who went to Qatar, got his papers, played for the Qataris. A defender.

Sinha, Mexico. Also known as Zinha (by FIFA) and by his birth name, Antonio Naelson Matias. A tiny midfielder who was playing in Mexico and got his passport in 2006 -- in time to become the first non-Mexico-native to score for Mexico in the World Cup. A major breakthrough in a country that seemed uncomfortable with the idea of non-native Mexicans in its side.

Roger Guerreiro, Poland. A midfielder from Sao Paolo, Guerreiro played in Warsaw for three seasons -- or long enough for the Poles to decide he was one of them. He got his passport in the spring of 2008, in time to play for Poland in Euro 2008. And he scored Poland's goal in a 1-1 tie with Austria.

In every case here, the Brazilian player left the country for, we must assume, more money than he could get in the domestic league, stayed long enough (and played well enough) to impress the locals, got a passport (in some cases, we imagine, through preferential treatment) ... and bang, you've got a guy with one name playing for Germany or Mexico or Portugal. Countries with real players of their own.

An interesting concept, and a trend as well. Most common in countries that have professional leagues strong enough to afford a Brazilian mercenary. If your country has a weak league ... sorry, no Brazilians for you.

But that could change, as Brazilians cast ever further afield in search of jobs. If a guy already is in Azerbaijan ...

Maybe in another 20 years, every "nation" in the world will have its own Brazilian-born citizen-footballer. At which point the "national team" underpinnings of the World Cup become a bit ridiculous.
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Saturday, August 29, 2009

Nervous Time in Germany

South Africa plays a friendly against Germany next Saturday.

South Africa is host to the 2010 World Cup, and doesn't really have to worry about results. We suspect Germany will handle the Bafana Bafana fairly easily ... but a writer for the Johannesburg Sunday Times suggests that a win over South Africa won't eliminate the angst surrounding the Mannschaft.

Germany's biggest problem is Russia. Well, and not winning more impressively during the European qualifying phase.

Germany has won six matches and tied one, but it hasn't quite shaken Russia, which has won five and lost one and plays Liechtenstein in what amounts to a sure victory on Sept. 5.

Why are the Germans nervous?

The author of the Times piece is a bit purple in his description, and a bit relentless in his fondness for wordplay, but the story seems to be a fairly accurate assessment of the mood in the Germany soccer community.

The sense is that their team is still pretty good, but more out of habit than talent, and that there is a festering fear that Russia will win Europe's Group 4 by winning the head-to-head in Moscow next month ... and Germany's 3-3 tie at Finland will come home to haunt it.

Germany gets Azerbaijan at home on Sept. 9, which ought to be an easy victory, but it won't do the Germans any good unless Wales helps them out by defeating (or at least tying) the Russians at Cardiff, on the same day.

A nice roundup on the Germany situation.
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Friday, August 28, 2009

World Cup Staple: Qualifier Roster Debates

This concept is a bit difficult for someone from the United States to grasp, but it is a staple of the World Cup qualifying process.

The national team roster debates.

Why is this guy on the team? Why isn't that guy?

This is madness! No, it makes perfect sense!

This is the stuff of endless discussion among fans and journalists in the serious soccer countries, and the debates are heating up right this minute, as more and more federations announce their training rosters ahead of the qualifiers coming up Sept. 5-0. A critical period for teams in Europe, Africa and the Americas ... because the end of the qualifying process is in sight.

France is a good example of the angst surrounding the process.

France coach Raymond Domenech has announced a roster that includes veteran forward Thierry Henry -- some say aging, past-his-prime Thierry Henry -- ahead of France's key qualifying matches against Romania (Sept. 5) and at Serbia (Sept. 9).

However, another veteran some like and some detest -- Patrick Vieira -- has not been called in.

And the vitriol is flowing.

Not that this is a key moment, or anything, for France and its campaign, but it sits second in the European Group 7 standings with four matches to play. If it wins its next two matches, it could lead the group -- and winning a group means direct qualification to South Africa 2010. Or a pair of defeats could leave it hopeless of winning the group and worried about just hanging on to second place and getting into the home-and-home playoff with some other second-place team.

Around the planet, journalists are putting the national team selections in prominent places in newspapers and giving their own opinions. These are genuine national debates rivaling almost anything going on in politics or business in any given country.

This is a bit difficult to grasp in a country such as the United States, which has some world-class talent, but not a whole lot of it.

That is, you could put a dozen U.S. fans, coaches and journalists in a room, ask them to pick, independently, the 23-25 guys they want to call in for training ahead of a qualifier, and everyone in the room would have essentially the same list.

But in a country like France, which has hundreds of players on major club rosters and has thousands more who believe they ought to be ... the team selection is a contentious business.

This is part of what makes South Africa 2010 -- or any World Cup -- fun. The passionate debate. The fervor of it all. The absolute certainty in the mind of the Man in the Street that the national coach has botched it all again.

Let the arguments begin!

And here is the rest of it.
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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Preview of South American Qualifiers

This is Post No. 1 in what will be several posts, over the next 10 days, taking a closer look at several important South Africa 2010 qualifying matches coming up on Sept. 5.

In this post, we turn to the expertise of a colleague from South America, Armando Varela.

Armando writes for Futbolmls.com and for Record, Semanario de Futbol, from México, as its Los Angeles correspondent.

A native of Medellin, Armando lived and worked as a journalist in Colombia until 1998, when he moved to the U.S., first to New York City and then to California, and he is very familiar with the thrills and spills of the grand South America qualifying experience.

Armando's outlook on the five South America (Conmebol) qualifiers being played Sept. 5:

--Brazil at Argentina (Rosario): With forward Adriano recently announced as part of the roster, Conmebol table-leading (and world top-ranked) Brazil (27 points) is set up to face Diego Maradona’s Argentina in the match of the day. The “Albicelestes” have been slow in getting their mojo working, with constant back-and-forth between their famous (and outspoken) coach and his star, Leo Messi, arguably the best player of the world these days. The Argentines stand only fourth in the Conmebol standings, and a home defeat could put at risk the two-time champs' chances of getting to South Africa. At all.

Brazil has been on a tear of late, crushing Argentina 3-0 in the Copa America final in 2007, and winning the Confederations Cup in June with victories over Italy, Egypt, host South Africa and the United States (twice). But Brazil was held to a 0-0 draw with Argentina in their first qualifying meeting, a year ago in Bela Horizonte.

Carlos Dunga, a non-celebrity-oriented coach in command of the Brazilian side, will have to conquer over a proud Argentinean team that has historically grown with the challenges and that claims to be a better team, man for man. Even if they don’t play in River Plate’s stadium, but 300 miles away, in Rosario.

--Venezuela at Chile (Santiago): Non-traditional power Venezuela -- up until a few years ago baseball was the country’s only passion -- travels to meet the previous breakthrough power in South American soccer, Chile. Chile is led by the Argentinian Marcelo Bielsa, a former player and now a coach and so popular in Chile that he is considered a possible presidential candidate. His team faces a not-so-consistent but sometimes surprising Venezuela that still has a small chance to get to its first World Cup.

--Ecuador at Colombia (Medellin): Beautiful-with-a-past Medellin serves as host city for a key game in which Colombia (17 points) will play for its survival against recently erected regional power Ecuador. With rumors of not getting the best elements out of the national pool of players and a rivalry with the fifth-placed Ecuadorians (20 points) that now is political as well as sporting, the Colombians will have to win this game if they want to remain alive in the competition.

--Uruguay at Peru (Lima): With Peru’s good times now just a memory, Uruguay has the perfect scenario to show up and regain some of the recently lost shine. Uruguay, still a South American powerhouse with a soccer tradition similar to Argentina’s and Brazil’s, faces a disoriented team that sits last in the group and has no chance to win a place to the World Cup, even if they play as hosts in colonial and mysterious Lima. Uruguay will do whatever it takes to get visitors points and compete for the fifth spot against Concacaf’s fourth. And probably will get them.

--Bolivia at Paraguay (Asuncion): Paraguay is third in the group (24 points) with a recent path that began in Copa America 2007 with a mix of spectacular wins and deep losses. The Paraguayans remain veterans of the World Cup with potential to surprise. Bolivia, the adversary (12 points), doesn’t look nearly as dangerous when playing at sea-level Asuncion -- that is, away from its 11,900-foot altitude aerie back at home, in La Paz.
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

40,000 Tickets for 2010 to Construction Workers

Remember those 120,000 tickets that World Cup 2010 organizers said would be set aside for distribution, at no charge, to poor South Africans?

Turns out that 40,000 of them are going to construction workers involved in preparations for the World Cup, organizers said today.

Given that strikes by workers seeking better pay have at times delayed construction, you have to wonder if this is a sort of gesture designed to win the cooperation of labor and its unions.

What is a more attractive concept to a construction worker, in South Africa, than the concept of free tickets to see a match in a stadium you helped build?

Clever move, on the part of organizers.

But those 120,000 free tickets for the poor ... are now down to 80,000. Maybe poor people should go on strike, or hold mass demonstrations. See if that frees up some more tickets.
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Bid Countries Get FIFA Advice in Zurich

Even more information on 2018 and 2022 ... eight-plus months ahead of South Africa 2010. Not to mention four-plus years ahead of Brazil 2014.

All 11 bid teams are in Zurich so that FIFA can remind them today how to better prepare in their pursuit of the 2018 or 2022 World Cups.

Conversation about those events isn't as remote as it sounds because FIFA will choose hosts for 2018 and 2022 in a December meeting next year. That is, 16 months hence. So it is getting fairly late for the would-be hosts.

The World Cup has become such a big business that FIFA can summon the bidders almost like servants to sit and listen to what, exactly, FIFA expects of them. Even bidders as sophisticated and experienced in putting on big soccer events as England, Japan, Russia and the United States.

What does FIFA demand of its hosts?

Let's see ...

--World-class stadiums, with at least one stadium of 80,000 capacity for the opening and closing matches.

--First-class hotels, and lots of them.

--Easily accessed transportation.

--Modern communications technology.

--Environmental awareness.

--Corporate and social responsibility.

And we could be cynical and suggest it wouldn't hurt to massage the egos and perhaps fatten the wallets of the FIFA electorate, but these things are on the up and up, I'm sure. (Wink wink nudge nudge.)

To recap, bidders for both 2018 and 2022 include Australia, England, Japan, Mexico, Russia and the United States, plus joint bids from Belgium-Netherlands and Spain-Portugal. Indonesia, Qatar and South Korea have applied only for the 2022 finals.

The thinking is that England is the favorite for the 2018 World Cup; the "masters of the game" have hosted only one World Cup, and that was in 1966. After that, FIFA probably will want to go to North America, which hasn't hosted since 1994, which might put the U.S. in good stead.

Anyway, yes, the way bidders are at the beck and call of FIFA shows just how much value bidders now attach to hosting a World Cup. They will jump through hoops.
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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Media Censorship in South Africa?

South Africa seems to have a fairly free and independent news media. But the president of the ruling party's Youth League would like to see that changed.

In most of Africa -- well, in most of the world -- media don't have the freedom to go after the government. But in South Africa, they pretty much do.

Consider the lead story in the Aug. 23 edition of the Johannesburg Sunday Times: "The report Mbeki and Zuma hid from you"

Mbeki and Zuma would be the former and current presidents of South Africa. And the headline clearly indicates the Sunday Times is going right after them.

The story is a pretty intense and important examination of "shady oil deals" between South Africa and Saddam Hussein's Iraq. It is good, aggressive journalism of the sort that is rarely seen in the Third World.

But the aforementioned leader of the ruling party's Youth League, name of Julius Malema, would like to see the independent media brought to heel, and he is blunt about it.

According to The Times, in a story dated Saturday, Malema said "this media needs to be controlled somehow. They are even trying to set an agenda for the ANC. We cannot allow just a few editors to dictate what is wrong and what is right."

Malema apparently is convinced much of South Africa media is hostile to the African National Congress, the ruling party, nonstop, since the end of the apartheid government, in 1994. Maybe it's because the government more than occasionally is corrupt? Like most governments?

Malema said "some sort of control" needs to be exercised over the media. Which is the sort of thing you might expect from a man who has identified Fidel Castro as the politician he most admires.

Malema seems to be fairly often pilloried as a left-wing nut job. One blogger said Malema is "a sandwich short a picnic" ... but he still is in a high-level and high-visibility position, and it is a bit chilling to hear him calling for controlled media.

It reminds us that political and social freedoms in South Africa remain tenuous and fragile. Imagine a major U.S. or British or French or Australian politician calling for censorship. It wouldn't happen.

But it does, in South Africa. And we fear it may, again.

It would be nice to be able to go to a World Cup in a country where both successes and failures are duly reported. South Africa seems like such a place. For now.
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Monday, August 24, 2009

Cape Town Worried about Selling Itself

Cape Town is near the the southern tip of South Africa (and, hence, Africa) and is rivaled only by Johannesburg in global recognition among South African cities.

Cape Town is second in population, with 3.5 million residents, only to Johannesburg. It also is the No.1 tourist destination in Africa, having overtaken Cairo, according to this post at Wikipedia (which isn't the Encylopedia Brittannica, but generally is more right than wrong).

Cape Town also has a long history as the entre pot of European entry and expansion in the area and the focal point of the country for centuries, and sometimes is known as the country's Mother City.

Understandably, then, Cape Town is a host city (one of nine) for the 2010 World Cup. It also will be the site of the World Cup draw, on Dec. 4.

But some of those in Cape Town are worrying that the city is missing a chance to broaden and enhance its global image.

A local newspaper, the Cape Argus, today has a story on a local business leader suggesting Cape Town is botching its shot to re-brand itself on the international stage.

The leader is displeased that Cape Town began its World Cup campaign by calling itself "Africa's Party Capital."

The thinking seems to be that Cape Town already is known for its benign climate and recreational opportunities and is limiting itself by reinforcing its "good times" image when some business could get done.

The new slogan for Cape Town? "Ready to welcome the world." The critic prefers "Where the world meets." But he likes the new one better than the old, which he dismissed as trite, making Cape Town sound like some Southern Hemisphere version of Ibiza.

Having been through these things a time or three, I've noticed that it's natural for leaders in World Cup host cities to be nervous and easily agitated at the way their city is being promoted. If we called up people in Johannesburg, Durban, Pretoria, Rustenburg -- other World Cup cities, that is -- we certainly wouldn't have trouble finding someone with a title who is unhappy with how the promotional side of things is going down.

Those of us who focus on the sports side of things sometimes lose sight of these things. The civic boosterism that is part and parcel of the whole hosting process. The cities want something tangible to come out of all the effort.

It appears Cape Town is having a particularly nervous moment. "OK, foreigners know we're a nice place to visit. But how about letting them know this is a place where they can come do some business with us, as well?"

It's always something.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009

'Row' Over Media Housing in Joburg

Interesting story in today's editions of the Johannesburg Sunday Times about housing being constructed in Johannesburg for media covering the 2010 World Cup.

Let's boil this down: What it comes down to is a concern over media perceptions. And that is a legitimate concern because media perceptions turn into global reality.

(Just ask Atlanta about the 1996 Olympics. A couple of lost bus drivers the first few days of the event forever tarred Atlanta as an Olympics that "didn't work.")

Apparently, South Africa organizers are building new housing that they believe will work just fine for media during the World Cup.

However, officials in the Expo Centre area, where the housing is being built, say the accommodations are too small and too primitive -- they describe it as "hostel-like" -- to fit in with what is an upscale area, and that it will harm property values in the neighborhood.

Welcome to the tug of war that is a major world event, Joburg.

A distinction we should make, right up front. The housing in question apparently is intended to accommodate electronic media people. TV folks. The Richie Rich-es of media.

If it were print media housing, you could throw up a tent with a Coleman heater in the corner, a port-a-potty outside and that would be the end of it. I've been to 13 Olympics and four World Cups, and print people expect little more than more-or-less clean sheets and a ride to the venues. I'm thinking of some of the new multi-residential areas I've been lodged in, over the years ... and I recall barely functioning apartment units (and a shared bathroom) at Sarajevo in 1984, new but downscale apartments at Korea in 1984, at Nagano in 1998 and something hardly better than Quonset huts at Sydney, 2000.

This is an issue because it's the electronic media, and canny South Africa leaders know that a throwaway line by a TV guy about the "hostel" he is stuck in at night can paint, to millions of television viewers, a picture of South Africa as a primitive and unwelcoming place.

Personally, I think anything with a roof, a bed and functioning plumbing is just fine. But I know where the Expo Centre people are coming from when they suggest the 45-square-meter (480 square feet) units under construction might be considered subpar by TV people. Even though 480 square feet is far bigger than the average First World hotel room.

But this is different because the Expo Centre will, apparently, be home to the electronic media center. And that makes some people nervous.

Thing is, I imagine the elite world TV media will be staying in four- or five-star hotels, not in the media housing. The commentators who work for the big TV companies will never see this housing. They will be in a hotel.

How this turns out will be interesting. Can Expo Centre officials push World Cup organizers (with the help of the courts) into even bigger and posher cribs for the talking heads? Or will the World Cup officials hold the line, plead a lack of time -- and perhaps undermine a neighborhood's resale values with several hundred undersized/shabby future apartments?

This is the sort of push and pull that comes with these events. The fact that TV people are involved makes it a little more delicate. We'll tell you about the outcome, when we get one.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009

Already Planning for 2018 and 2022

We're almost 300 days away from the start of the 2010 World Cup.

But plenty of thought already being given to the World Cups nine and 13 years hence.

We already have lists of bidders for each event. The United States, Australia, England, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and Russia have formally declared their desire to host the FIFA World Cup in 2018 or 2022.

Netherlands-Belgium and Portugal-Spain have each submitted joint bids for the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.

Qatar and South Korea have applied as candidates to play host only to the tournament in 2022.

In the U.S., things are moving along to the point that its bid committee has whittled down to 27 the list of potential match sites for games to be played 9/13 years from now.

Go to the bottom of this link to see the 27 cities/stadiums still in contention.

Among them: The Rose Bowl, in Pasadena, Calif., where the 1994 World Cup final was held. As well as Chicago's Soldier Field, which hosted the opening match of the same World Cup.

Here are the 11 cities who didn't make the cut: Birmingham, Ala.; Cincinnati, Ohio; Columbus, Ohio; Fayetteville, Ark.; Knoxville, Tenn.; Las Vegas, Nev.; Minneapolis, Minn.; New Orleans, La.; Pittsburgh, Pa.; Salt Lake City, Utah and San Antonio, Tex.

If it seems strange that we're already talking about 2022, it's because FIFA has announced it will award both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups in December of next year. So everyone needs to have I's dotted and T's crossed 8/12 years ahead of time.

A bit curious. And it's why we're hearing talk about the third and fourth World Cups down the line ... before South Africa 2010 even begins.
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Friday, August 21, 2009

Brazil Recalls Adriano to Team

Adriano is a sort of Brazilian prototype/soccer cliche. Technically gifted, athletically precocious, globally prominent in his early 20s ... and facing burnout and weight problems well before he reaches 30. It seems to be a sort of Brazilian archtype, in recent years, with Ronaldo being the prime example.

Adriano was close to some sort of collapse earlier this year. He was dumped by Seria A club Inter Milan in April and heading back to Brazil and just about disappeared for a time.

But now he appears to be back, in form, and he's in the team.

Next up is to see if he does any damage against Argentina, Brazil's arch-rival, when the two nations meet in a South America qualifier, Sept. 5.

Here is the Rueters story about Adriano being welcomed back by Dunga, the national team coach.

It helps that Adriano is off to a fast start with Brazilian club team Flamengo, with 10 goals in 16 matches.

Adriano has a history of scoring against Argentina, which also recommends him for the coming match. A match that is key to both sides; Brazil can all but clinch a spot in the top four (guaranteed berths to South Africa) with a victory. Argentina will be in peril of not finishing in the top four if it loses, at home.

Adriano allegedly has had personal problems exacerbated by the death of his father. Some have suggested alcohol abuse is/was involved.

As we suggested in the previous post, we doubt Dunga will allow anyone on the team to get out of hand, and it might be good for Adriano to have that sort of discipline in his life. As well as to make a difference for Brazil in a big match.
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Thursday, August 20, 2009

Dunga Cracking Whip on Team Brazil

An interesting story. Ricardo Teixeira, president of the Brazilian Football Federation, made a point of telling a news conference that current national team coach Dunga won't put up with any shenanigans from the 2010 Brazil World Cup team. Assuming Brazil makes it, and it is about 95 percent of the way there.

Teixeira suggests the 2006 Brazil team wasn't quite paying attention to detail at the World Cup in Germany, and that's why the team was ushered out of the quarterfinals by France, 1-0.

"Given the team we had, it was a great disappointment," Teixeira is quoted as saying in a wire story. "There was a lack of fighting spirit."

That's kind of a nebulous accusation. From what I can tell, from researching, it wasn't as if Brazil players were missing curfew or getting arrested or acting badly on the field.

So what is Teixeira referring to when he says things like, "What happened in 2006 will certainly never happen again in terms of the Brazilian national team. You only learn when you suffer. I'll make the changes for that not to happen again"?

Well, here's our best guess.

While googling "Brazil Germany 2006 bad behavior" a bunch of items came up in the return, but here is the most interesting one.

It comes from a blogger who apparently is Brazilian (or speaks Portuguese, at the least), who wrote about Brazil's time at the World Cup.

And if you follow this link ... and scroll down the page to the third item -- "Brazil Is Ready for Failure" -- you will find a really interesting item from a Brazilian newspaper columnist in which he predicts disaster for the 2006 team. And, mind, this was written in May 2006, before the 2006 World Cup had kicked off.

The gist of it is ... that Brazil took a veteran team to Germany (which doesn't have to be bad) ... but this Brazil team, the journalist wrote, was one that happened to be a cynical, world-weary crew of veterans that was more interested in individual than collective success. He mocks the players' demands for individual rooms, a first for Brazil, which before had paired up players as roommates. He refers to them as "highnesses" who can't be bothered with a snoring roommate.

The writer also suggests Brazil had become ensnared in its own legend, feeling obligated to entertain while winning. The writer even refers to them as the Globetrotters -- the American team of basketball showmen who don't actually play real games.

So, yes, this Teixeira thing apparently is about attitude.

And here is where Dunga comes in.

If you want lots of background on Dunga, here is his wikipedia entry.

First, though, start by examining that mugshot.

Does that look like a coach who will put up with guys screwing around? Looking away as global icons seem more devoted to the joga bonito (the beautiful game) at the expense of team goals?

A weird thing here? Dunga is a nickname. The man's real name is Carlos Caetano Bledorn Verri, which is 1) quite dignified and 2) of Italian and German background. But Carlos CBV got stuck with "Dunga" because, apparently, an uncle though he wouldn't grow up to be very tall, and "Dopey" was the name of one of the Seven Dwarfs (from "Snow White and the ...") and the rest is so not applicable history. Dunga was the hard man of Brazil soccer for three World Cups, the defensive mid who played with passion ... but perhaps not the sort of flair that Brazil prefers -- as long as it still wins.

Dunga is anything but Dopey. And anything but the sort of guy who is going to take any guff from anyone. Ever.

And, my sense is that this is what Teixeira (Dunga's boss) was referring to, the other day. If Brazil loses in South Africa, it won't be because the team lacked focus. That is what Dunga is about. And if Brazil loses some style points along the way ... well, Dunga is ready to make that trade in exchange for a trophy.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

South Africa Sinks to No. 72 in World Rankings

Well, this has been a bit of a damper on World Cup enthusiasm, in South Africa.

The latest FIFA world rankings have South Africa at No. 72 on the planet, down two slots from the previous list. Here is a link to the Johannesburg Sunday Times story on it, and you can almost see the hand-wringing from a continent away.

Canada and Trinidad & Tobago have gone past the hosts of the 2010 World Cup, and that can't be promising ... especially for those of us who know how modest the achievements of the Canadian and Trinidadian sides are. Canada failed even to make the final six in Concacaf qualifying, and T&T has been all but eliminated from World Cup consideration halfway through the final round of competition.

At this rate, South Africa will be, by far, the lowest-ranked soccer nation ever to play host to the World Cup.

The lowest previous?

From my investigation of FIFA's rankings ... it appears as if South Korea was the previous lowest-ranked host -- No. 40 in May of 2002, the month before South Korea co-hosted with Japan -- which was No. 32 in May of 2002, the second-lowest ranking on record.

In 1994, the United States was the ranked No. 24 a month ahead of the tournament.

France was No. 18 just before the 1998 World Cup that it hosted ...

Germany was No. 19 (how did that happen?) the month before it hosted the 2006 World Cup.

FIFA's Web site takes its world rankings back only as far as 1993. But it's hard to imagine any earlier hosts of the World Cup -- Italy in 1990, Mexico in 1986, Spain in 1982, Argentina in 1978, West Germany in 1974, Mexico in 1970, England in 1966 ... and so on back to Uruguay in 1930 ... were ranked as low as South Africa is -- or is likely to be.

A 3-1 loss, in South Africa, to Serbia in a friendly last week won't help South Africa's ranking, either.

No host nation has failed to survive the first round of the tournament. But unless South Africa shows more signs of life, it will break that streak.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

New Zealand Desperate for Fan Support

The United States can relate to this. Canada, too. Even South Africa, most years.

It is an English-speaking country in which soccer is, well, soccer. Not football.

Where soccer is anything but the No. 1 sport in the national sports hierarchy.

But where qualifying for the World Cup is a real possibility ... if only the national side can get a bit of support from the hometown population

How bad are things "soccer" in New Zealand?

So bad that New Zealand's soccer federation already has announced it is slashing ticket prices for a crucial home match, Nov. 14, in Wellington.

How sad is that? Well, quite. The Kiwis are 180 minutes from reaching the World Cup finals, for the first time since 1982. And they fear that they won't be able to sell out a 34,000-seat stadium unless they offer ticket prices at a fraction of what the country's rugby team could (and would) charge.

New Zealand is champion of Oceania (which no longer includes Australia, so it isn't exactly a tough region), which qualifies it to play the fifth-place team from Asia in a home-and-home series to determine one of the precious 32 World Cup berths.

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia first play their own home-and-home (Sept. 5 and 9) to determine Asia's No. 5, and the survivor will face New Zealand. The first game will be in the Asian country, on Oct. 10. The second match will be in Wellington a month later.

New Zealand soccer officials realize that having a full stadium is critical. It would be damaging for team morale to have the All Whites (as the soccer Kiwis are known) come out on the pitch and see scads of empty seats.

Filling a 34,000-seat stadium with the World Cup on the line shouldn't be a problem -- and wouldn't be in nearly any other country in the world -- but New Zealand loves its rugby (and perhaps cricket, too) far more than soccer.

Also, New Zealand isn't a very populous place. It can't support much of a soccer infrastructure in the margins of its sports menu (as the U.S. does). The Wellington metro area has a population of less than 400,000, and the entire country's population is only 4.3 million.

Anyway, it strikes us as a bit perverse that soccer, a game invented by English-speaking people, in England, is perhaps least popular -- compared to other sports -- in primarily English-speaking countries. The United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Just about anywhere else in the world that doesn't speak English as an official language (aside Cuba and Japan) ... soccer is No. 1.

Be interesting to see if the Kiwis can pack the joint, come Nov. 14, with the World Cup on the line. Someone may have to make sure the country knows it's a big deal.
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Monday, August 17, 2009

Hooligans Make SA Fret about Image

Nothing quite like playing host to a global event to make a country sit up and take stock of itself.

In 1984, Los Angeles got the Summer Olympics, and organizers spent thousands of man-hours working out solutions to unclog the freeways and the city spent millions of dollars building a big, new terminal at the airport, the Bradley Terminal, for international flights.

In 2008, China forced industries all over the country to shut down for three weeks so that the air quality for the Beijing Olympics would be merely bad, instead of the usual "awful."

Even South Africa, with far more limited resources than most nations that put on World Cups and Olympics, is getting into the clean-up-our-house spirit.

The Johannesburg Sunday Times over the weekend wrote an editorial about how "hooligans disgrace SA while the world watches."

Well, actually, the world isn't quite watching yet, aside from the likes of this blog. But it will be, certainly, when we get closer to the 2010 World Cup.

The angst exhibited by the Times in its editorial is understandable. There were ugly scenes at a domestic club match between a team from Cape Town and another from Johannesburg, and hometown fans of the Kaizer Chiefs apparently showered the pitch with bottles and vuvuzelas -- the plastic horns that seem to be a fixture at South Africa soccer matches.

(In the fans' defense ... well, we can't actually defend them ... but we can explain some of their actions by noting that the referee apparently was comically inept. The writer who reported on the game suggests the referee blew time to "end" the first half only 38 minutes into the match.)

South Africa doesn't seem to have experienced hooliganism of the sort that bedeviled Europe for so many years ... with drunken yahoos taking to the streets, brawling with other fans, trashing businesses and terrorizing passengers on public transit.

England, in particular, had serious issues with hooliganism that were investigated in depth in the 1990 book written by an American, "Among the Thugs." This is the book that famously details a hooligan sucking the eyeball out of a police officer's face.

Behavior among British fans of certain teams was so bad that American organizers celebrated when England failed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup, held in the U.S. They figured that keeping England's fans in England was better for the '94 World Cup than whatever economic gain England being in the tournament might have been worth.

That sentiment seemed to be borne out four years later, at the 1998 World Cup in France. After England's first match, English fans rioted after the team's first match, which was held in Marseilles and later came to be known as "The Battle of Marseille" by some elements of the English media.

The French responded with overwhelming security for every remaining match involving the English.

South Africa doesn't seem to have the same sort of deep issues that England and other countries, such as Germany and Holland, have seen. The Times editorial makes a point of noting that the bottles thrown were "empty." The other projectiles mentioned, vuvuzelas, are ubiquitous in part because they are cheap, plastic and weigh just a few ounces.

But when you feel as if your quiet little corner of the world is being examined more closely, it makes you nervous about bad behavior. The Times' editorial fretfully asks, "One wonders whether those overzealous idiots realised that the international soccer showcase is less than 300 days away — and that the whole world is watching our every move."

Well, we will be. And as the editorial notes, if there is a good time for South Africa fans to work on their sportsmanship, this is it.
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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Key Dates in Countdown to 2010

Some dates you may want to note in counting down the days until the 2010 World Cup kicks off. Mark your calendar, and all.

One date we won't list, because it passed two days ago, is Aug. 14. That marked 300 days left till the first match of the 2010 South Africa -- featuring South Africa and an as-yet-to-be-identified opponent in the opening match of the tournament.

Some other important dates:

Sept. 5: On this date, 34 qualifying matches are scheduled.

Sept. 6: Six qualifying matches, all in Africa.

Sept. 9: 35 qualifying matches.

Oct. 10: 37 qualifying matches, the most hectic day on the qualifier schedule. Among the 37 is the first half of the New Zealand-vs.-Asia No. 5 home-and-home playoff.

Oct. 11: Three qualifying matches, all in Africa.

Oct. 13: Five qualifying matches, all in South America. Four World Cup-bound teams will be known by the end of the day.

Oct. 14: 27 qualifying matches, including the final matches in UEFA and Concacaf; we will know which three Concacaf teams have clinched berths, as well as nine UEFA group champions.

Oct. 19: The draw for the eight second-place teams out of UEFA qualifying that will have home-and-home playoffs to determine the final four European teams in the World Cup.

Nov. 13: 200 days to kickoff of the 2010 World Cup.

Nov. 14: 16 qualifying matches, 10 in Africa that will complete qualifying and give us five teams headed for South Africa; the second half of the New Zealand-vs.-Asia No. 5 home-and-home playoffs, which gives us another World Cup team; four among UEFA second-place teams involved in part one of the home-and-home playoffs for a berth; and the first half of the home-and-home between the Concacaf No. 4 and the South American No. 5.

Nov. 18: Five qualifiers, four of them from the second leg of the UEFA home-and-home playoffs to identify the final four European nations advancing to South Africa; and the second half of the home-and-home between the Concacaf No. 4 and South America No. 5. At the end of this day, all 32 teams involved in the 2010 World Cup should be known.

Dec. 4: World Cup draw in Cape Town, South Africa. Groups identified, game schedules set.

March 3: 100 days to kickoff of the 2010 World Cup.

May 15, 2010: World Cup rosters for each of the 32 qualified nations must be set.

June 11, 2010:
Game 1 of the 2010 World Cup, in Johannesburg, South Africa.
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Saturday, August 15, 2009

Link to World Cup Ticket Site

Continuing with our theme of "news you can use ..."

If you want to attempt to purchase tickets to the 2010 World Cup, here is a link to the site that starts you on your way.

Many of the 3.2 million tickets remain available because we don't know most of the field yet.

And for five countries already qualified -- Australia, Japan, Netherlands, North Korea and South Korea -- we have no idea what groups they will end up in.

All we know for sure is when South Africa (team No. 1 in Group A) plays its group-stage matches.

Organizers say the biggest demand for tickets, so far, is from Europe and the United States.

The record for most tickets sold for a World Cup is nearly 3.6 million, sold for the 1994 World Cup in the United States. That record may not be broken for a while because of the size of the venues used by American organizers.
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Friday, August 14, 2009

Deadline for Volunteering: August 31

Organizers of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa are looking for 15,000 volunteers to help make the event work, as noted in a previous post on this site.

Time is running out to apply -- the deadline is Aug. 31 -- and here are more specifics on how to volunteer.

This is the link to the fifa.com news release that provides contacts and e-mail addresses for potential volunteers.

It's notable that more than 15,000 people already had applied to volunteer by the end of July, but organizers still seem interested in additional resumes.

Note that 10 percent of all volunteers must come from outside Africa. Ten percent must come from African countries that are not South Africa, and 80 percent will come from the host nation.

As you might expect, the greatest demand is for volunteers with language skills, and Danny Jordaan, the boss of the organizing committee says just that.

So, yes, if you can speak Dutch or Korean as well as English, your chances of being accepted are much better.
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120,000 Free Tickets to 2010 World Cup

This is an outstanding idea. A significant chunk of South African citizenry apparently cannot afford to buy World Cup tickets. Yet many of them are avid football fans.

So, organizers will provide 120,000 free tickets to impoverished South Africans, out of the 3.2 million tickets available for the 2010 World Cup, according to a story in the Johannesburg Sunday Times.

Getting 120,000 poorer South Africans into stadiums during the 2010 World Cup is both fair and clever.

As the Times points out, several Confederations Cup matches in June were poorly attended. The three-week competition was treated as a sort of trial run for the Big Event next summer, and organizers (and viewers) noticed empty seats in stadiums when neither the host team, South Africa, nor one of the world's heavyweight powers (Brazil, Italy, Spain) were not on the pitch.

Almost without doubt, the 2010 World Cup will yield several group-stage matches of marginal (or nearly zero) interest among ticket-buying South Africans ... and also fail to attract sufficient traveling fans of the competing teams to fill a stadium.

It is fair to assume many of the free tickets will be for those matches of lesser-demand. Creating a win-win situation by getting the South Africa underclass into a World Cup match -- at no cost to the consumer -- as well as filling up empty spots in the stadium. Those gaps of unfilled seats that look so bad when a match is televised globally.

Even the United States, which is vastly more wealthy than South Africa, and has tens of thousands of ethnic groups from all over the world already within its borders, had trouble selling out some matches during the attendance-record-setting 1994 World Cup.

To wit: Bulgaria and Nigeria played a group-stage match in Dallas before a Cotton Bowl crowd of 44,132 -- nearly 20,000 short of a sellout.

If U.S. organizers couldn't sell out a stadium, imagine the empty swaths in a South Africa venue next summer when, say, Paraguay and North Korea play. Even as tens of thousands of rabid soccer fans live within a few miles of the stadium -- but can't afford the price of a ticket.

The per capita annual income in South Africa is $10,000 (compared to $46,000 in the U.S. or $36,600 in the United Kingdom), according to The World Factbook.

Expecting South Africans to pay globally competitive ticket prices to see matches from far-away countries isn't realistic, and giving away some of those tickets to impoverished citizens is one of the smartest things organizers can do.
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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Concacaf Turns into the Wild, Wild West

Two matches, two victories by teams lying in the middle of the standings, and suddenly the (deep breath) Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (Concacaf) qualifying process is a horse race.

Mexico 2, United States 1 ... Honduras 4, Costa Rica 0 ... and three points separate four teams atop the Concacaf standings, with four matches per team still to play.

Yes, this could go in any direction, and it's quite exciting. Certainly more exciting than, say, Costa Rica and the United States would like it to be, considering those two seemed to have pulled away a bit from the pack. Until Wednesday's matches.

Now it's Costa Rica with 12 points, Honduras and the U.S. with 10 and Mexico with 9, and sorting this out almost certainly will go down to the final day of qualifying, Oct. 14. It should be wild, and a goal here or there will separate first from fourth. And it is very important, indeed, to finish higher than fourth.

Here's why.

The top three finishers in the hexagonal, as it is often known here in the northern half of the Western Hemisphere, go directly to South Africa 2010.

The No. 4 team still has a shot to get to South Africa, but it detours through a home-and-home series with the No. 5 team out of South America. Winner (on aggregate) goes to South Africa, loser waits for 2014.

And that No. 5 South American team could be quite a test.

With four matches, per team, left in the South America qualifying, the No. 5 team is Ecuador. But Argentina is only two points ahead of the Ecuadorans, and Uruguay is only two back and Colombia and Venezuela are only three back. That's five teams in play for No. 5.

So, let's see, finish fourth in Concacaf and you could get ...

Argentina (and almost certain dismissal) ...

Or Ecuador or Colombia, which means serious altitude in Quito (9,300 feet/2,850 meters) or Bogota (8,300/2,650) or Medellin (4,900/1,500) and a road loss of a severity to be determined ...

Or Uruguay, which has won two World Cups, has a deep soccer culture and also a reputation for being the dirtiest team in FIFA ...

Or Venezuela, which would make it a political story for the U.S. or Honduras, each of which have major issues with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.

So, you want to finish in the top three. For sure.

What's ahead for the Concacaf top four? We'll take them in current standings order.

Costa Rica: Like the other three, Costa Rica has two matches left at home and two on the road. The Ticos have a reputation for not being very good outside San Jose, but the reality here is that they have three of the mere six points earned so far, in 18 matches, by road teams in the final round of qualifying (thanks to a victory at Trinidad & Tobago). If Costa Rica can win twice on its home field (vs. Mexico and T&T), that's 18 points and should render road matches at El Salvador and the U.S. moot. Probably the safest bet of the four.

Predicted finish: 19 points, second, on goal differential.

Honduras: The Catrachos actually are second now, thanks to the best goal differential (plus-4) in the group. Honduras gets T&T and the U.S. at home, and that's one easy victory and one tougher one ... and Mexico and El Salvador on the road, which would seem like a certain loss and one winnable match, but ... The El Salvador match is the last on the schedule, and that ought to be a break because the Salvadorans almost certainly will be eliminated by then. Except that these two countries are sports arch-rivals and were the participants in the infamous 1969 "Football War" that began after a World Cup qualifying match and ended after four days of fighting and more than 4,000 fatalities. So, yes, El Salvador will be playing with its First XI and with full-blooded passion, even if all it can hope to gain from the match is mess up Honduras' chances of getting to South Africa. Honduras needs to clinch in its next three matches, that is. It does not want to go to San Salvador needing a point to make the top three, even if it has clearly superior talent.

Predicted finish: 17 points, fourth.

United States: Mexico is famed for its homefield advantage, but the Americans rarely concede a qualifying point at home, which should put the Yankees in good stead when El Salvador and Costa Rica come to visit. A road match at T&T next month could yield a point or three for the Yanks, since T&T is all but out of contention, but the Americans shouldn't count on taking any points out of Honduras. The home match with Costa Rica is the final of the hexagonal, for the Americans, and if Costa Rica has already qualified, the U.S. could be playing against a less-than-full-strength and less-than-motivated Ticos team.

Predicted finish: 19 points, first on goal differential.

Mexico: Los Tricolores looked much sharper in defeating the U.S. 2-1 on Wednesday, but Mexico has become a bad road team of late. Indeed, Mexico has yet to gain a single "away" point in the hexagonal, in three matches, including a loss at El Salvador. It has matches at home against Honduras and El Salvador, and that should be one difficult victory and one easy one. It cannot count on points out of Costa Rica, but it ends at T&T, and the Trinidadians will be out of contention and perhaps ready to roll over for an opponent it harbors no special animus toward.

Predicted finish: 18 points, third.
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A "Shoot to Kill" Attitude

We interrupt our stream of football-related posts to bring you more news on the nature of South African society. Which seems depressingly familiar to someone from the United States.

To wit: A story from the Johannesburg Sunday Times relating a rash of violent mall robberies and the strong (very strong) language used by police as to how best they can fight back against the criminals. The Times describes it as a "shoot to kill" frame of mind.

The crime and violence is centered in the province of Gauteng, the economic heart of South Africa -- and also home to the cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria -- and three of the 10 stadiums that will play host to 2010 World Cup matches. So, yes, these are issues that potential visitors to the World Cup might want to pay attention to.

The peg for this story, as we say in journalism, was the robbery of an armored car Tuesday and the shooting of two guards, both in the head, one fatally.

It seems to have provoked the local authorities into recognizing there is a problem crying for attention, and prompted this strong language from the provincial police chief, Khabisi Mosunkutu:

“[The police] must make sure they do not allow criminals the split second to aim their weapons at policemen and policewomen. I urge the members in blue to shoot if they feel threatened, and they must not miss.

“They must hit the target [so that] when the dust settles there should be no doubt as to who is in charge.”

Wow. Must be interesting to live in a country where cops can still talk like that and keep their jobs. Imagine a police chief of a major U.S. city (never mind a major European city) encouraging police to shoot sooner than later and "not miss." How long would that police chief keep his/her job?

Mosunkutu also is concerned that police are given "heavy-caliber automatic weapons" that will "match and outmatch the firepower of criminals." (Now that sounds more familiar, in the U.S.)

South Africa isn't the only dangerous country in the world, when it comes to what ought to be banal activities, like going to the mall. I live a few miles from South-Central Los Angeles, where violence seems endemic. And Long Beach isn't exactly as pacific as the nearby ocean.

But the U.S. has a worldwide reputation for violence. To a lot of us (say, sports fans), who haven't paid close attention to the daily life in South Africa, some of this may come as a surprise. In short, South Africa has at least as much violence (and apparently more) than the U.S.

Soccer fans who plan on visiting should know this before they decide to travel to the 2010 World Cup. "Forewarned is forearmed," and all.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Mexico, Norway Win, Improve SA 2010 Chances

Two countries with significant World Cup history took steps toward a trip to South Africa 2010 today. Mexico came from behind to defeat its regional arch-rival, the United States, 2-1; and Norway thrashed Scotland in Europe Group 9 to reintroduce itself to contention for second place -- and potential advancement.

Other qualifiers already in, and what they mean:

Germany 2 at Azerbaijan 0: Germany stays atop Group 4 and keeps up the pressure on Russia, which is four points back with a game in hand. The group winner probably will be decided when Germany plays in Moscow on Oct. 10.

Croatia 3 at Belarus 1: Ivica Olic scored twice as Croatia kept alive its slim hopes of catching England atop Group 6, put some pressure on Ukraine in the battle for second and essentially eliminated Belarus.

France 1 at Faroe Islands 0: Andre-Pierre Gignac scored in the 42nd minute as France was anything but convincing against the Group 7 minnow and moved within five points of group leader Serbia -- with four matches to play vs. Serbia's three. France also shored up its grip on second place over Lithuania.

At least one fairly significant match remains to be played today -- Costa Rica at Honduras.

In Oslo, Norway revived its campaign with a Group 9 rout of the Scots, who had hoped to move into the clear in second place behind already qualified Holland. Scotland has seven points, as does Macedonia, and Norway is now in it with six points. Each of those three has three matches left, and if one of them can get to, say, 12 points, it has a shot of getting into the four home-and-home playoffs of the eight best European group runnersup.

The biggest game was the one played in Mexico City, where Mexico conceded a ninth-minute goal by Charlie Davies (after an exquisite pass from Landon Donovan). It gave the U.S. a lead on Mexico soil for the first time, but it was not to stand up.

Los Tricolores steadily applied pressure on the visitors thereafter, who seemed content to surrender about 75 percent of the field, and Mexico picked up a pair of goals to improve to 23-0-1 at home, all-time (and 19-0-1 at Azteca), against the norte americanos.

Mexico's confidence and resolve was rewarded by a nice goal from 25 yards by Israel Castro in the 19th minute, a well-struck ball that glanced off the underside of the crossbar and bounced down into the goal. The winner came in the 82nd minute, when Efrain Juarez ran past Donovan in the box and turned the corner before knocking a pass back to recent sub Miguel Sabah, who was unmarked as he popped the ball into the goal from about 7 yards.

Mexico almost had to win, and now that it has it remains very much in the mix for one of Concacaf's three automatic berths and, worst-case, seems positioned to get the No. 4 spot -- which means a home-and-home with the No. 5 out of South America.

The United States remains stuck at 10 points, only one ahead of Mexico. Four matches remain for each.

The next big day in World Cup qualifying: Sept. 5.
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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Landon Donovan Q&A on USA's Mexico Match

Landon Donovan of the U.S. national team is in Mexico City, resting up for a qualifying match tomorrow vs. archrival Mexico at Azteca Stadium.

Donovan is making his third appearance in Azteca, more than any other player on the U.S. squad.

We asked him several questions about the difficulties of playing Mexico in Mexico, where the U.S. national team has never won in 23 tries, and at Azteca, where the Yankees are 0-18-1.

Here are my questions and his answers:

Question: Everyone is better at home. Why is Mexico massively better at home?

Answer: Mexico uses all the outside influences to their advantage and let's not forget that they are a top team in the world.

Q: What aspect of the Azteca experience is most difficult for you?

A: The altitude is the hardest part to deal with. Usually with altitude, you get past it after 15-20 minutes, but I was never able to catch my breath last time we played here.

Q: Did Mexico gain confidence from the 5-0 victory over the U.S.'s second XI in the Gold Cup final?

A: Mexico certainly gained confidence from the GC Final, no question.

Q: What's up with the 3 p.m. (Mexico time) kickoff on a weekday? Is that some sort of gamesmanship?

A: They want it to be as hot as possible when the game starts and I'm positive they made it at 3:00 PM on purpose.

Q: You once told me that Mexico is one of your two favorite sides to beat, along with Germany. What are your feelings about El Tri now?

A: Mexico are a very good team that find themselves in a difficult position right now in qualifying. I still believe they will qualify but it'll be very difficult if we beat them tomorrow.

Q: A victory would put the U.S. very close to qualifying. But would finally winning at Azteca and/or messing with Mexico's World Cup aspirations be almost as sweet?

A: Qualifying is the No. 1 goal but it would incredible to do something that no U.S. team has ever done and that only one team has done in the last 50 years.

Q: Have you seen much of Giovani dos Santos, the 20-year-old Mexico forward, and do you have an opinion on him?

A: Giovani is a player with a ton of talent and is starting to produce for the National Team. If he plays, we will certainly have our hands full.
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Qualifier preview: USA at Mexico

With apologies to Germany and Croatia and Honduras and Belarus and the other 10 sides playing, this is the biggest World Cup qualifying match of the eight being played on Wednesday.

The United States vs. Mexico at Estadio Azteca.

Not only is it critical to the course of World Cup qualifying in Concacaf, this game matches the two greatest rivals in the region. Whenever they play, even if it were in a "friendly" in an empty stadium, it is sure to be a match of high energy and high emotion.

Among the story lines for this one ...

--Mexico's panic. El Tri, as Mexicans refer to their team, is in trouble in Concacaf qualifying, and everyone in the country knows it would be a scandal if its team doesn't advance to South Africa. Mexico stands fourth in Concacaf qualifying standings; the top three in the group are assured berths in the 2010 World Cup; No. 4 goes into a home-and-home series with the No. 5 out of South America, which will be the hard way to get to South Africa. Mexico cannot (in its fans' minds) finish behind Costa Rica and Honduras as well as the hated Yanqis.

--America's drought. The U.S. has not won a match in Mexico in 23 tries and is 0-18-1 at Azteca. All it has to show for all those matches is a scoreless tie in 1997. American players very much want to erase that zero from the 0-22-1 south-of-the-border record.

--American revenge. Mexico just annihilated the U.S. 5-0 in the championship of the Gold Cup, the hemispheric championship. Granted, neither team was at full strength (the U.S. fielded a second team from front to back), but that sort of overwhelming result rankled in the States, and the Yanks will be keen to expunge the memory.

--American goals. The U.S. stands on 12 points halfway through qualifying. A road victory would be an enormous boost in the push to South Africa. In fact, were the Yanks to vault to 15 points, with Mexico stuck at 6, it would create a situation in which it would be difficult to envision the Americans not qualifying, even with four matches still to play.

--The Azteca Factor. Mexico City's big stadium is one of the most difficult venues in the world. (Mexico has lost a World Cup qualifier in Azteca only once, to Costa Rica in 2001.) Visitors must deal with altitude (7,200 feet, or 2,200 meters), severe air pollution, highly partisan crowds of 100,000-plus and, of course, a Mexico team that is convinced it cannot lose. Also, Mexican federation officials have added one more bit of gamesmanship to this one, scheduling kickoff for 3 p.m. (11 p.m. GMT), on a weekday, which can only be a hope that temperatures will be uncomfortably high for the oxygen-deprived visitors.

--Who is No. 1? Mexican fans are hard-wired to believe that El Tri is the elite team in the region. Even though the U.S. is 13-8-8 vs. Mexico since 1990. Even though the U.S. eliminated Mexico from the 2002 World Cup. Mexican fans -- and players -- need that Azteca victory fix to keep on believing. "They're a rival to be respected, but we know how they play," Mexico keeper Guillermo Ochoa said of the Americans. "Furthermore we're physically fitter and better players."

--International relations. The U.S. and Mexico have a long and complicated relationship, and for the most part the Yanqis have dominated Mexico economically and militarily, and that leads to antipathy south of the Rio Grande River, where the citizenry is convinced that America exploits and abuses Mexican immigrants (illegal or otherwise) to the States. That sort of collective animus is never far from the surface of the relationship.

The U.S., naturally, has recalled its best players. That includes Everton goalkeeper Tim Howard, Fulham midfielder Clint Dempsey, AC Milan defender Oguchi Onyewu and Landon Donovan, top scorer in U.S. soccer history and the most accomplished American in Major League Soccer, with the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Mexico also will be close to full strength. Gifted young forwards Giovani dos Santos (Tottenham) and Carlos Vela (Arsenal) lead the expanding list of Mexicans who are succeeding overseas, which also includes defenders Ricardo Osorio (Stuttgart) and Rafael Marquez (Barcelona), though the latter is out with an injury. Cuauhtemoc Blanco has been called in, too, and the Chicago Fire midfielder often gives the Yanqis fits.

Mexico prefers to believe that it is back on track now that native son Javier Aguirre is back at coach, replacing the Swede Sven-Goran Ericksson.

Matches in this rivalry tend to look rather alike, especially over the past few decades, with Mexico pressing from kickoff and the U.S. looking to counterattack.

And the way these matches tend to finish is, if Mexico scores early, it can pull the Americans out of their defensive posture and win by a score as big as, say, 5-0. However, if the Americans score first, Mexico tends to overreact, loses its composure and rarely catches up.

The conflict of styles makes for interesting football, and the qualities of the players are at odds, as well. Mexico's players tend to have significantly greater skill on the ball, prefer to play it on the ground, have a quicker first step and tend to score in the run of play. The American side inevitably is bigger and might be faster in a long dash, enjoys playing in the air and is likely to score on restarts.

Almost always, it makes for great drama. It is unlikely to be matched by any other qualifier being contested on Wednesday.
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Monday, August 10, 2009

Qualifier preview: Croatia at Belarus

Croatia and Belarus? This game matters?

Croatia has appeared in three consecutive World Cups, famously finishing third in France 1998, losing only to France in the semifinals.

Meanwhile, Belarus has never played in any major tournament, and not many people think it will any time soon, either.

Yet the Belarussians have their fate largely in their hands. They are lying fourth in Europe's Group 6 standings, and, yes, have no chance to catch top-of-the-table England. But Belarus has nine points from five matches, and trails Croatia and Ukraine (each of which have played six matches) by two points for second place -- and second place means a home-and-home playoff with another second-place finisher for a berth in South Africa 2010.

The match Wednesday in Minsk is crucial. Belarus almost has to win to energize its campaign, while Croatia could nearly eliminate one of its key competitors for second place if it can win on the road.

Factors to consider include ...

--Belarus gets Croatia in back-to-back matches (Wednesday, and Sept. 5 at Zagreb). A victory and a draw would vault Belarus past Croatia and startle the football world.

--Belarus also has a home match vs. Ukraine, on Sept. 9, and a victory in that one could leave it alone in second.

--Belarus ends its qualifying run against England, in London, on Oct.14, and England has been rampant in qualifying so far. However, England will have clinched first place (and a qualifying berth) a month before, and may not field its First XI.

--Belarus doesn't yet have a signature victory in Group 6 qualifying; its nine points come from a pair of victories over little Andorra and one over hapless Kazakhstan. Its defeats were 1-0 at Ukraine and 3-1 at home vs. England.

--Croatia needs a result in Minsk not just to dishearten the Belarussians, it needs a point (or three) to keep Ukraine at bay; the Ukrainians have two matches with Andorra among its final four, and that is an automatic six points -- as well as opportunities to push its goal differential (the first tiebreakter) farther north.

Belarus hopes center on attacking midfielder Aleksandr Hleb, who is on loan to VfB Stuttgart from Barcelona. Hleb, nicknamed The Sorceror's Apprentice during an earlier stay in Stuttgart, is widely considered the best player in the history of Belarus football. He will need to be on his game for the underdogs to have their day.

Timofei Kalachev, a Belarus-based midfielder, has three goals in qualifying, top on the Belarus side. Other stalwarts include Seria A Bari-based forward Vitaly Kutuzov, defender Dimitry Verkhovtsov and goalkeeper Yuri Zhevnov, who plays for FC Moscow.

Croatia's side is better known in the West because of that big run in the 1998 World Cup ... and because Croatia knocked England out of Euro 2008 with a pair of victories in qualifying.

Croatia also has more players in top European leagues. The biggest name is midfielder Luka Modric, who plays at Tottenham. Modric scored a late goal that enabled Croatia to salvage a 2-2 tie at home vs. Ukraine.

Other important players include Bayern Munich forward Ivica Olic, Tottenham-based defender Vedran Corluka, Spartak Moscow goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa and Australia-born central defender Josip Simunic, who plays for Bundesliga upstart Hoffenheim.

If past form means anything, battle-tested Croatia shows up in Minsk, paddles the never-been-anywhere Belarussians, and then turns its attention to staying ahead of the Ukraine.

But the reality of Belarus controlling its own destiny, and getting its two most important matches at home, could propel the former Soviet republic to heights never before associated with its national team.
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Sunday, August 9, 2009

Qualifier preview: Costa Rica at Honduras

This is Game 2 of our four-part series of previews leading up to Wednesday, the day when eight World Cup qualifying matches are played.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras, in the steamy port city of San Pedro Sula.

This is a sort of Zero Hour for the Hondurans, who stand third in the Concacaf table midway through the qualifying process. To keep their slight lead over fourth-place Mexico, Honduras needs to win at home against the group-leading Ticos.

The top three finishers in the Concacaf tournament go to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup.

The No. 4 finisher goes into a home-and-home playoff with the No. 5 team out of South America, and Honduras will be an underdog to advance over whomever that No. 5 team is.

So, yes, the Hondurans want to stay ahead of Mexico -- and could even move into second place if the U.S. loses to Mexico earlier Wednesday, and would then trail table-leading Costa Rica by only two points.

But a defeat, at home ...

A defeat, at home ... could be ruinous for the Hondurans, who must still play at Mexico and El Salvador. While a road victory by the Ticos would all but put them into the 2010 World Cup.

To watch the two squads warm up is to like the Catrachos, as the Hondurans are known. They clearly are the bigger and more physical side, and they appear to have an edge in speed, too.

They have quality attacking players in enough depth -- Carlos Costly, Carlos Pavon, Tottenham-based midfielder Wilson Palacios, Parma-based midfielder (and free-kick specialist) Julio "Rambo" de Leon, FC Toronto standout Amado Guevara and even Gold Cup revelation George Welcome -- that they should be able to withstand the absence of high-profile striker David Suazo (of Inter Milan), who will miss the match with a leg injury.

Costa Rica, often a more elegant and cohesive side, won at home against Honduras, 2-0, back in February, on a pair of second-half goals from forward Andy Furtado.

But the Ticos are not nearly as formidable away from their home in San Jose, having lost 2-0 at Mexico and winning only 3-2 at bottom-of-the-table Trinidad & Tobago. Also, they rarely win on Honduran soil, and what has been such a promising start to qualifying could founder if they can't pick up another point or three in their three remaining road games -- against Honduras, El Salvador and the United States.

Walter Centeno, captain and midfielder, has been Costa Rica's best player so far. But the Ticos also have gotten lots of offense from playmaking midfielder Celso Borges and forward Bryan Ruiz.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras is considered the best rivalry in Central America. Costa Rica has had slightly the better of it, leading the series 19-14-16 and, more importantly, has reached the World Cup finals three times (1990, 2002, 2006) since Honduras made its one and only appearance, in 1982.

Hondurans have made a greater impact on the international club scene, but the Catrachos keep finding themselves looking up at the Ticos in the standings. They can begin to rectify that issue on Wednesday.

Former Honduras coach Jose de la Paz, who led the 1982 Catrachos to the World Cup finals in Spain, is confident of Honduran victory.

"Honduras are an experienced side and should beat Costa Rica, while they've only beaten us once at home in the last 40 years or so," said De la Paz, according to fifa.com. "I think that we'll win the game because we've got a better team and will have the fans behind us, which has been decisive in the past. If you go through each team one by one, there's no doubt that the Honduran players are better."
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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Qualifier preview: Germany at Azerbaijan

Eight World Cup qualifying matches are scheduled for Aug. 12 -- next Wednesday, that is -- and we are going to take a closer look at four of those matches in our next four entries on this site.

Normally, Germany and Azerbaijan wouldn't be the sort of match that could aspire to have the word "crucial" associated with it. The Germans are 5-0-1 so far in Europe's Group 4, good for 16 points and the group lead. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is 0-4-1, good for 1 point, and is completely out of contention.

But, but ... this is the sort of "trap" game that could cost Germany a precious point -- or three -- as it attempts to outpace Russia atop Group 4 -- and Russia is only one point back, with a 5-1-0 mark, the one defeat coming against Germany, 2-1, at Dortmund last October. Russia gets a return match this October, and the Germans don't want Russia to be able to take the group lead with a home victory.

Remember ...

... only the winners of Europe's nine groups clinch berths in South Africa 2010. The eight best second-place finishers are chucked into a home-and-home pair of matches against another second-place team, and only four will survive that roulette spin to go to the World Cup final.

Thus, the difference between finishing first and finishing second in European qualifying is enormous, and every point is crucial. Especially points accrued in away games -- and this is Germany's last on the road, aside from the trip to Russia.

Why shouldn't Azerbaijan be easy pickings? The Azeris haven't managed so much as a goal in five matches, including a scoreless draw against little Liechtenstein.

But consider:

--The Azeris have conceded a mere five goals in their five matches, and never more than one -- aside from a 2-0 defeat vs. Russia at Moscow, back in March.

--Azerbaijan, which lies on the west coast of the Caspian Sea, is the most distant country in UEFA, aside from neighboring Kazakhstan. It is more than 2,000 air miles from Frankfurt to Baku, and that is a long trip, indeed, for Western European players, and into an environment that is far more like the Middle East or Asia than the tidy and well-ordered Europe that Germany's players know.

--The Azeris are coached by German native Berti Vogts, who led Germany to the 1996 Euro Cup championship in England (and later coached Scotland, Kuwait, Nigeria with less success). Vogts certainly understands German football and German players, and that could make for a tougher time, when the Germans are far from home.

Germany will count on its strike force of Michael Ballack, who is recovering from a toe fracture suffered during Chelsea's preseason tour of the United States; Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski to come up with that one goal that could keep the Germans a step ahead of the Russians.

The Azeris are not well known in the West. Rashad Sadigov, who last season played for an also-ran in Turkey's top league, is perhaps their most dangerous attacking player. Farhad Valiyev was in goal for Azerbaijan in its most recent qualifier, a 1-0 home loss to Wales in June. In that Wales game, commentators noted that the match was very rough. The Germans are no shrinking violets, but if a game gets dirty, odd things are even more likely to happen.

This has the feel of a 1-0 score to it, and the Germans will be looking for that one goal early to try to dampen the enthusiasm of the home crowd. If the game is 0-0 for any length of time, well, the atmosphere could become electric and the Azeris could come to believe they are one lucky strike away from making history by upsetting one of the globe's elite sides and, perhaps, turning the course of qualifying in Group 4.
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Friday, August 7, 2009

Race Remains a Big Issue in South Africa

Even Americans, who generally are intellectually challenged when it comes to international relations, know that South Africa has race issues.

Well, those race issues haven't gone away with the end of the "apartheid" system that kept the minority whites in control of the government from 1948-94. The award of the 2010 World Cup hasn't made things all hunky-dory, either.

Earlier this week, Julius Malema, leader of the African National Congress Youth League, got lots of attention for complaining that the ANC-run government has "too many minorities" in the financial sector.

"Minorities," in South Africa, being non-blacks.

The Johannesburg Sunday Times, my favorite newspaper in South Africa (at least, from evaluating Web sites), did a story about Malema's comments, and days later it remains the "most popular" story on the site.

But the Times put a headline on the story that would not pass political-correctness muster, in the U.S.

"Too many Indians, chief" is the Web headline. Apparently a reference intended to make the paper's English-speaking readers think of American Indians. (And perhaps the old "too many chiefs, not enough Indians" idiom.) When, actually, the Indians involved in the story appear to have ancestral ties to India, the country. And the other minorities appear to be of European origin, just by guessing from their surnames.

The gist of the story:
That the ANC Youth League leader believes South Africa president Jacob Zuma is perpetuating anti-black-African stereotypes by putting non-blacks into positions of authority in the business/finance part of his government. While giving all the security-related government positions to black South Africans.

The upshot: That the black president of South Africa is contributing to the perception that black Africans can handle guns ... but not bank accounts.

What is just as interesting as the finance/security aspect of things ... is that the head of a major ANC political arm can complain about "too many minorities" in the government -- and thatit is considered a fair and proper topic for discussion. Compare that to the U.S., where not much of anyone outside the Ku Klux Klan would complain in a public forum about "too many minorities" in the government. And, note, that it is the South African government that is on the defensive here, not the ANC Youth League boss.

The point of this being, on this blog, that race is a major, major issue in South Africa, and we need to keep that in mind to even begin to understand the nation that will hold the 2010 World Cup.
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Thursday, August 6, 2009

Terror Threats and the 2010 World Cup

Since Munich 1972, organizers of any major sports events have to prepare for this: Terrorist acts that interrupt/ruin/scar forever their event.

Ahead of the 2010 World Cup, South African authorities say they are preparing for terror threats. Even though Al Qaeda, etc., hasn't been known to act on South African territory, the police spokesman spoke about visiting teams/fans that could "import the threat of a terrorism attack" into the country.

To wit: The United States and England ...
which have been military active in the Middle East and have been targeted by terror attacks in the past.

While the idea of a large-scale, 9/11-style attack is sobering ... the story linked (above) concedes that the more real and present danger is generic crime and violence in South Africa. The story notes that 50 people are murdered every day in South Africa, a rate that outstrips the United States -- even though the U.S., famous for its gun violence, has more than six times South Africa's population.

Anyway, yes, there is a need to be prepared. And that means looking for bombs and bombers ... even when the odds of a visiting Brit or Yank being mugged or shot are far higher.
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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

South Africa Q&A with Landon Donovan

Landon Donovan, the U.S. international midfielder, was in South Africa for nearly all of June while playing with the team that finished second, to Brazil, in the Confederations Cup -- a sort of test tournament for the 2010 World Cup.

I was hoping to get some input on this blog from someone who was there, for the Confed Cup, and Landon graciously responded to a set of questions I sent to him.

My queries, and his replies:

Question: What most impressed you about the handling of the Confederations Cup?

Answer: I think a lot of us didn't know what to expect and, given all the rumors we had heard, we were expecting the worst. However, I was completely impressed with the organization of the event and didn't have any complaints.

Q: What is most memorable South African part of the event? That is, something about the host country and not about the matches you and the U.S. played.

A: Going on a Nature Ride was something I will never forget. It's one thing to go to a zoo in America and see these animals, but it's a whole other thing to see them interacting in their natural environment.

Q: The horns, the vuvuzelas. Have an opinion on them?

A: It's part of their soccer culture and we need to accept that. They were a little annoying at first but we got used to them as the tournament went on.

Q: What did you see that the organizers could do better, next summer?

A: I honestly didn't have any complaints. The people were friendly, competent, and helpful.

Q: Do you feel as if you have a good sense of the country? Did you see any of the poorer parts of the country? Can you compare South Africa to any place on the planet you've been before?

A: South Africa is incomparable to anywhere I've ever been. There were certainly some "poorer" places but the people were very happy and I really enjoyed being there.

Q: Do you have any sense about whether South Africa fans like Americans or the U.S. team?

A: I think we grew on the South African people as we got deeper into the tournament. They seemed to like us from the day we got there and we were very friendly with the people throughout.

Q: If the weather next summer is similar (cool, a little wet), what might that mean for the competition?

A: It will be interesting to have a World Cup in cold weather. The players actually prefer it because it makes the game faster. Hopefully it doesn't snow ...

Q: How much do U.S. players know about South Africa and its history? Was there a sense of anything special going on there ... or was it just another tournament?

A: It's hard to experience their culture and history the way we would like to because we are confined to the hotel and practice fields for most of the time. Hopefully after the World Cup we can spend some time learning more.
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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Becks Goal: Securing a Spot with England?

David Beckham had a very nice free kick goal against Barcelona at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on Saturday, and I wonder if that one play might be enough to get him to the 2010 World Cup.

Could be.

Very few players can do what Beckham did with that ball, driving it from about 25 yards out, outside the circle at the top of the box, and over a half-dozen-man wall ... but with enough overspin that the ball seemed to dive -- while swerving left -- and past Barcelona goalkeeper Jose Manuel Pinto and into the siding of the net.

That sort of deadball threat
-- and execution -- against a team as good as Barcelona certainly will be seen by England coach Fabio Capello and likely will bring Beckham in for the next two England matches in World Cup qualifying ... and maybe into the team for South Africa 2010. (England is close to clinching first place in its group.) I mean, even if the guy can't do much of anything else (defend, score in the run of play, etc.), that sort of active dead-ball threat is huge.

Organizers must hope Becks shows up in South Africa. Considering his name-recognition, etc. (Even if England in any competition means a fair chance of their loutish fans showing up and wrecking a town or three.)

Anyway, yeah. Socoring that goal, against Barcelona, with 93,000 fans watching ... that's the kind of pressure execution that might get a guy a berth in the World Cup. And that was the first thought that popped into my head as the ball settled into the back of the next.

Barcelona ultimately won the club friendly over Beckham and his temporary club team, the Los Angeles Galaxy, 2-1.
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Monday, August 3, 2009

World Cup Favorites, 310 Days Out

About six weeks ago, Brazil midfielder Kaka happened to drop the name of "England" into a discussion about favorites to win the 2010 World Cup, and of course the English media spotted it immediately.

The self-styled Masters of the Game always fancy themselves favorites to win the Big Event -- sometimes right up to the moment when they don't even qualify for it, as in 1994, 1978 and 1974.

Anyway, Kaka has his list of favorites, 310 days out.

But we also have our own. We will pick five, in the order of likelihood of winning. (The odds are our own, and not how the gambling public will place its bets.)

1. Brazil, 2-1 (When the World Cup is played outside Europe, Brazil has to be the favorite.)

2. Spain, 5-2 (Yeah, winning the Euro 2008 title was nice, and Spain has been rolling for several years now -- that Confederations Cup loss to the United States, notwithstanding -- but Espana has a long history of collapsing in World Cups, so we can't consider it "most likely" to win in South Africa.)

3. Germany 4-1 (Always rises to the occasion for the big tournaments. Always mentally tough and in marvelous physical condition.)

4. Italy, 6-1 (Defending champs looked old and shaky in the Confederations Cup, but no one is more cynically brilliant at milking results out of World Cup than the Azzurri.)

5. Netherlands, 10-1 (Already has qualified, and the usual collection of great attacking players could be ready to win their first World Cup.)

Darkhorses:

6. Argentina, 12-1. (First, that dope Diego Maradona has to get Argentina into the tournament. Maybe the country can find a real coach, and if it does, these odds will go down, because if Brazil doesn't win it, and the Euros freak out at playing in Africa, Argentina is the logical choice to take it all.

7. France, 12-1. (Again, they have to qualify first, but this is a side that has played with confidence and skill for most of the past decade and change -- aside from that meltdown in 2002.)

8. Ivory Coast, 15-1. (We suspect at least one African team is going to make a deep run into the tournament, and this is our choice.)

And what of England?

Any side that can't seem to find a competent second forward to pair with Wayne Rooney (and no, Peter "The Stork" Crouch doesn't count) and apparently will start creaky ol' David Beckham at right mid ... well, that's not a real contender.
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