Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Qualifier Preview: Mexico at Costa Rica

Post No. 2 looking ahead to key South Africa 2010 qualifying matches this weekend.

In this one, we focus on Mexico playing in Costa Rica, on the artificial turf of Estadio Saprissa in the capital of San Jose.

How this one turns out ... could change the face of qualifying in Concacaf.

Mexico is coming off a 2-1 comeback victory over the United States, its arch-rival. And Costa Rica was hammered, at Honduras, 4-0.

But those results may not mean much of anything here.

Global soccer analysts probably expect Mexico to get a point, and maybe three. Just off reputation and those recent matches.

But that overlooks two salient facts of the Concacaf world, both pertaining to the difficulty of winning on the road -- which seems as pronounced in this region as any in the world.

1. Costa Rica has won all three of its home qualifiers, including a 3-1 rout of the U.S. and a 2-0 romp past Honduras. Its home dominance seems reinforced by the intimidating dimensions of Saprissa, as well as its slick and quick artificial turf, a rare surface at the international level. Indeed, the Americans never seemed to get comfortable on it in their lopsided defeat.

2. Mexico has yet to earn a single point on the road, in three matches, losing heavily (2-0) to the U.S. and Honduras (3-1) ... and failing even to escape El Salvador with a point, in a 2-1 come-from-ahead defeat in San Salvador.

The Concacaf standings show how tight things are in this group, with four matches left for each of the teams in the Hexagonal. Even one point on the road is hugely important. Only four of the 18 matches played thus far have yielded even one point for the visitor -- U.S. 2-2 at El Salvador, Costa Rica 3-2 at Trinidad & Tobago, Trinidad & Tobago 2-2 at El Salvador and Honduras 1-1 at T&T.

Which brings us back to Mexico. Is El Tri really back, now that Sven-Goran Ericksson has been sent packing back to Sweden and Javier Aguirre has taken over as coach? Has the breakout of young forwards Giovani dos Passos and Carlos Vela heralded a new heyday of Mexican soccer?

Costa Rica should be an acid test. Not only do the Ticos have significant talent and massive self-belief, when playing at cramped Saprissa Stadium, they consider Mexico their arch-rival, and they will be playing to keep the lead in the group standings.

The Ticos are led by midfielder (and captain) Walter Centeno. Celso Borges, only 21, has been a relevation in midfield. And Alvaro Saborio, who plays with Bristol City, and Bryan Ruiz, are dangerous attackers. When they are feeling giddy, Costa Rica fans will confide that they consider themselves the Brazil of North America, entertaining as well as skilled.

Mexico looked improved in its victory over the United States on Aug. 12, but it wasn't exactly decisive. Mexico trailed 1-0 and didn't get the winning goal until the 82nd minute.

What is at stake in this one?

For Mexico, a chance to close up on the top three in the group, hoping to pass one of them between now and October and gaining one of the three automatic berths to South Africa. A point (or three) out of Costa Rica would put the Mexicans in good stead to move into the top three, especially with its next two matches at home (where Mexico almost never loses) and the qualifying finale at T&T, which will almost certainly be eliminated before the match kicks off.

A defeat, however, could reignite the sense of national panic that gripped the country only a few months ago, and perhaps leave El Tri vulnerable when Honduras visits Mexico City on Sept. 9.

For Costa Rica, staying atop the group is at stake. Losing (or even tying) at home could mean it doesn't finish in the top three -- and that is to be avoided at all costs.

Keep in mind that the fourth-place team in Concacaf (currently Mexico) still has a chance to get to South Africa, but it will have to survive a home-and-home playoff with South America's No. 5 team. And that will be no picnic, whether it's Uruguay, Ecuador or maybe even Argentina.

Not qualifying is not an option for either nation. Mexico is a World Cup regular, and Costa Rica is gunning for its third straight finals appearance.

So, which is it? Costa Rica on top? Mexico in trouble again? Or the Ticos suddenly struggling and Mexico rolling? We shall find out Saturday in San Jose.
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Monday, August 31, 2009

Qualifier Preview: Denmark at Portugal

This is the first of several expanded previews of key South Africa 2010 qualifying matches among the 40 (!) being contested in the Americas, Africa and Europe this weekend.

Almost all of the matches have some meaning, even this close to the draw. But some are pregnant with significance, and we will look at several this week.

(Note: A general preview of the five South American matches, by my distinguished colleague Armando Varela, appeared on this blog a few days ago.)

We begin with a crucial match pitting struggling Portugal at Group 1 leader Denmark on Saturday.

If we had looked at this group a year ago, we would have pegged Portugal as the favorite. Fourth at the 2006 World Cup, finalists at the 2004 Euro championships, quarterfinalists in Euro 2008 ...

Then they started playing the games, and the Portuguese lost at home to Denmark, 3-2, and were held at home by Sweden, 0-0, and that's why a team loaded with international stars is, basically, desperate for a victory at Copenhagen.

Portugal certainly looks imposing. From forward Cristiano Ronaldo, arguably the best player in the world, to midfield veterans such as Deco, Duda, Maniche and defenders Basingwa and Pepe ... why is this team loitering in third place in the group, ahead of Sweden only on goals scored?

The aforementioned failure to win at home is part of it. So is an oddly erratic offense (eight goals from six matches), given the star power on the pitch.

Ronaldo has yet to score, in four matches played. Nani and Hugo Almeida each have two goals, and that isn't quite where you would expect half your offense to come from. (And Almeida isn't even in the team for this match.)

Carlos Queiroz, the coach, has called in another Brazilian-born player, the forward Liedson, perhaps looking for that bit of finishing the Portguese have been lacking.

The surprising Danes, meanwhile, can take a big step to securing Group 1 with a home victory.

After beginning qualifying with a scoreless draw at Hungary, Denmark has reeled off five consecutive victories, and gets three of its last four matches at home -- the only road game being at unimpressive Albania.

Denmark has dominated the opposition, with a 13-2 goals for/against ratio.

Soren Larsen, a forward for Ligue 1 team Toulouse, has five goals, albeit all of them against Malta or Albania. Christian Poulson, a tough midfielder who plays for Juventus, has scored two goals.

Other stalwarts in the Danish campaign to date include Aresnal forward Niklas Bendtner, veteran defender Lars Jacobsen, who plays with Blackburn; center back Daniel Agger, who plays for Liverpool; Ajax midfielder Dennis Rommedahl and veteran Stoke City keeper Thomas Sorensen, who saved a penalty in the 10th minute of a match at Sweden, a match the Danes went on to win, 1-0.

Denmark will bring a major size advantage to the match. Larsen, Bendtner and Sorensen all are 6-foot-4 or better. Portugal is a little side, and it can't count on scoring on restarts in the attacking end.

Denmark can come close to assuring itself of no worse than a second-place finish with a home victory, and would be exceedingly hard to catch for first, actually, especially if Hungary doesn't win at home against Sweden on Saturday. Portugal, meanwhile, badly needs a point, at the least, to reassure its fans it hasn't fallen into some international slough of despond -- despite suiting up Ronaldo and a cast of stars.
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Sunday, August 30, 2009

Brazil Exports Soccer Talent into 2010 Qualifying*

(* -- I found one more! See below.)

Call them The Boys from Brazil.

What happens when you play for the greatest soccer nation on the planet, and you're good ... but not good enough to join the national team and play the joga bonito for Brasil in the World Cup?

Then you, a Brazilian soccer player, go play somewhere else and become (among others) a German, an Azeri, a Spaniard, a Belgian, a Croatian, a Mexican, a Pole ...

A few decades ago, national soccer teams were almost uniformly made up of players born within the borders of that nation. There were fairly tough rules about foreign-born players gaining acceptance on another nation's teams.

But those barriers seem to have crumbled. And no one has benefited from it as have Brazilian expatriates -- and the soccer nations that take them in.

Here is a list of Brazilians I found today while poring over rosters of World Cup-contending teams.

(Remember, every single one of these guys was born in Brazil.)

Cacau, Germany. A forward with Stuttgart, and (since February) a German citizen -- and one of the first naturalized players to have an impact on the Mannschaft.

Deco, Portugal. No it's not as weird when Brazilians go play for the mother country. Maybe that's why Portugal has three Brazilians on its current national team, including this veteran midfielder.

Pepe, Portugal. A forward who has been "Portuguese" since 2007, just in time to help with Euro Cup qualifying.

Liedson, Portugal. A defender who has just been called up for the first time.

Leandro Gomes, Azerbaijan. Like most of the guys on this list, Gomes went overseas to play (in his case, at Baku, capital of Azerbaijan), stayed long enough to pick up a passport and has been an Azeri regular of late.

Marcos Senna, Spain. He bucked the trend of going to Portugal, if a Brazilian is going to go to Iberia, and went to Spain, instead, and was naturalized in 2006. He has been an integral midfield presence for Spain for the past few years. He was outstanding in the 2008 Euro Cup.

Igor De Camargo, Belgium. Not quite as Belgian as Hercule Poirot, and got his passport just this year, so let the ink dry a bit more. A midfielder.

Eduardo da Silva, Croatia. A striker who wound up at Dinamo Zagreb, got his papers, now is a striker for the Croats. The only Brazilian I found among any of the Balkan teams.

Emerson, Qatar. A striker who played in Qatar long enough to get a passport, and was part of the (narrowly) failed campaign to get out of the Asia Group 1.

Junior Marcone, Qatar. Another Brazilian who went to Qatar, got his papers, played for the Qataris. A defender.

Sinha, Mexico. Also known as Zinha (by FIFA) and by his birth name, Antonio Naelson Matias. A tiny midfielder who was playing in Mexico and got his passport in 2006 -- in time to become the first non-Mexico-native to score for Mexico in the World Cup. A major breakthrough in a country that seemed uncomfortable with the idea of non-native Mexicans in its side.

Roger Guerreiro, Poland. A midfielder from Sao Paolo, Guerreiro played in Warsaw for three seasons -- or long enough for the Poles to decide he was one of them. He got his passport in the spring of 2008, in time to play for Poland in Euro 2008. And he scored Poland's goal in a 1-1 tie with Austria.

In every case here, the Brazilian player left the country for, we must assume, more money than he could get in the domestic league, stayed long enough (and played well enough) to impress the locals, got a passport (in some cases, we imagine, through preferential treatment) ... and bang, you've got a guy with one name playing for Germany or Mexico or Portugal. Countries with real players of their own.

An interesting concept, and a trend as well. Most common in countries that have professional leagues strong enough to afford a Brazilian mercenary. If your country has a weak league ... sorry, no Brazilians for you.

But that could change, as Brazilians cast ever further afield in search of jobs. If a guy already is in Azerbaijan ...

Maybe in another 20 years, every "nation" in the world will have its own Brazilian-born citizen-footballer. At which point the "national team" underpinnings of the World Cup become a bit ridiculous.
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Saturday, August 29, 2009

Nervous Time in Germany

South Africa plays a friendly against Germany next Saturday.

South Africa is host to the 2010 World Cup, and doesn't really have to worry about results. We suspect Germany will handle the Bafana Bafana fairly easily ... but a writer for the Johannesburg Sunday Times suggests that a win over South Africa won't eliminate the angst surrounding the Mannschaft.

Germany's biggest problem is Russia. Well, and not winning more impressively during the European qualifying phase.

Germany has won six matches and tied one, but it hasn't quite shaken Russia, which has won five and lost one and plays Liechtenstein in what amounts to a sure victory on Sept. 5.

Why are the Germans nervous?

The author of the Times piece is a bit purple in his description, and a bit relentless in his fondness for wordplay, but the story seems to be a fairly accurate assessment of the mood in the Germany soccer community.

The sense is that their team is still pretty good, but more out of habit than talent, and that there is a festering fear that Russia will win Europe's Group 4 by winning the head-to-head in Moscow next month ... and Germany's 3-3 tie at Finland will come home to haunt it.

Germany gets Azerbaijan at home on Sept. 9, which ought to be an easy victory, but it won't do the Germans any good unless Wales helps them out by defeating (or at least tying) the Russians at Cardiff, on the same day.

A nice roundup on the Germany situation.
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Friday, August 28, 2009

World Cup Staple: Qualifier Roster Debates

This concept is a bit difficult for someone from the United States to grasp, but it is a staple of the World Cup qualifying process.

The national team roster debates.

Why is this guy on the team? Why isn't that guy?

This is madness! No, it makes perfect sense!

This is the stuff of endless discussion among fans and journalists in the serious soccer countries, and the debates are heating up right this minute, as more and more federations announce their training rosters ahead of the qualifiers coming up Sept. 5-0. A critical period for teams in Europe, Africa and the Americas ... because the end of the qualifying process is in sight.

France is a good example of the angst surrounding the process.

France coach Raymond Domenech has announced a roster that includes veteran forward Thierry Henry -- some say aging, past-his-prime Thierry Henry -- ahead of France's key qualifying matches against Romania (Sept. 5) and at Serbia (Sept. 9).

However, another veteran some like and some detest -- Patrick Vieira -- has not been called in.

And the vitriol is flowing.

Not that this is a key moment, or anything, for France and its campaign, but it sits second in the European Group 7 standings with four matches to play. If it wins its next two matches, it could lead the group -- and winning a group means direct qualification to South Africa 2010. Or a pair of defeats could leave it hopeless of winning the group and worried about just hanging on to second place and getting into the home-and-home playoff with some other second-place team.

Around the planet, journalists are putting the national team selections in prominent places in newspapers and giving their own opinions. These are genuine national debates rivaling almost anything going on in politics or business in any given country.

This is a bit difficult to grasp in a country such as the United States, which has some world-class talent, but not a whole lot of it.

That is, you could put a dozen U.S. fans, coaches and journalists in a room, ask them to pick, independently, the 23-25 guys they want to call in for training ahead of a qualifier, and everyone in the room would have essentially the same list.

But in a country like France, which has hundreds of players on major club rosters and has thousands more who believe they ought to be ... the team selection is a contentious business.

This is part of what makes South Africa 2010 -- or any World Cup -- fun. The passionate debate. The fervor of it all. The absolute certainty in the mind of the Man in the Street that the national coach has botched it all again.

Let the arguments begin!

And here is the rest of it.
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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Preview of South American Qualifiers

This is Post No. 1 in what will be several posts, over the next 10 days, taking a closer look at several important South Africa 2010 qualifying matches coming up on Sept. 5.

In this post, we turn to the expertise of a colleague from South America, Armando Varela.

Armando writes for Futbolmls.com and for Record, Semanario de Futbol, from México, as its Los Angeles correspondent.

A native of Medellin, Armando lived and worked as a journalist in Colombia until 1998, when he moved to the U.S., first to New York City and then to California, and he is very familiar with the thrills and spills of the grand South America qualifying experience.

Armando's outlook on the five South America (Conmebol) qualifiers being played Sept. 5:

--Brazil at Argentina (Rosario): With forward Adriano recently announced as part of the roster, Conmebol table-leading (and world top-ranked) Brazil (27 points) is set up to face Diego Maradona’s Argentina in the match of the day. The “Albicelestes” have been slow in getting their mojo working, with constant back-and-forth between their famous (and outspoken) coach and his star, Leo Messi, arguably the best player of the world these days. The Argentines stand only fourth in the Conmebol standings, and a home defeat could put at risk the two-time champs' chances of getting to South Africa. At all.

Brazil has been on a tear of late, crushing Argentina 3-0 in the Copa America final in 2007, and winning the Confederations Cup in June with victories over Italy, Egypt, host South Africa and the United States (twice). But Brazil was held to a 0-0 draw with Argentina in their first qualifying meeting, a year ago in Bela Horizonte.

Carlos Dunga, a non-celebrity-oriented coach in command of the Brazilian side, will have to conquer over a proud Argentinean team that has historically grown with the challenges and that claims to be a better team, man for man. Even if they don’t play in River Plate’s stadium, but 300 miles away, in Rosario.

--Venezuela at Chile (Santiago): Non-traditional power Venezuela -- up until a few years ago baseball was the country’s only passion -- travels to meet the previous breakthrough power in South American soccer, Chile. Chile is led by the Argentinian Marcelo Bielsa, a former player and now a coach and so popular in Chile that he is considered a possible presidential candidate. His team faces a not-so-consistent but sometimes surprising Venezuela that still has a small chance to get to its first World Cup.

--Ecuador at Colombia (Medellin): Beautiful-with-a-past Medellin serves as host city for a key game in which Colombia (17 points) will play for its survival against recently erected regional power Ecuador. With rumors of not getting the best elements out of the national pool of players and a rivalry with the fifth-placed Ecuadorians (20 points) that now is political as well as sporting, the Colombians will have to win this game if they want to remain alive in the competition.

--Uruguay at Peru (Lima): With Peru’s good times now just a memory, Uruguay has the perfect scenario to show up and regain some of the recently lost shine. Uruguay, still a South American powerhouse with a soccer tradition similar to Argentina’s and Brazil’s, faces a disoriented team that sits last in the group and has no chance to win a place to the World Cup, even if they play as hosts in colonial and mysterious Lima. Uruguay will do whatever it takes to get visitors points and compete for the fifth spot against Concacaf’s fourth. And probably will get them.

--Bolivia at Paraguay (Asuncion): Paraguay is third in the group (24 points) with a recent path that began in Copa America 2007 with a mix of spectacular wins and deep losses. The Paraguayans remain veterans of the World Cup with potential to surprise. Bolivia, the adversary (12 points), doesn’t look nearly as dangerous when playing at sea-level Asuncion -- that is, away from its 11,900-foot altitude aerie back at home, in La Paz.
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

40,000 Tickets for 2010 to Construction Workers

Remember those 120,000 tickets that World Cup 2010 organizers said would be set aside for distribution, at no charge, to poor South Africans?

Turns out that 40,000 of them are going to construction workers involved in preparations for the World Cup, organizers said today.

Given that strikes by workers seeking better pay have at times delayed construction, you have to wonder if this is a sort of gesture designed to win the cooperation of labor and its unions.

What is a more attractive concept to a construction worker, in South Africa, than the concept of free tickets to see a match in a stadium you helped build?

Clever move, on the part of organizers.

But those 120,000 free tickets for the poor ... are now down to 80,000. Maybe poor people should go on strike, or hold mass demonstrations. See if that frees up some more tickets.
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