Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Qualifier Preview: The 10 Biggest Matches

Another huge day of qualifying for South Africa 2010 on Wednesday, 35 matches involving every continental grouping aside from Oceania.

We won't try to take on 35 previews, but we can skim off what we consider the top 10 matches and outline why they rate.

Here we go, counting down from No. 10:

10. Netherlands at Scotland, at Glasgow. The Dutch clinched Group 9 back in June, and normally rate as heavy favorites against the athletically limited Scots. But Scotland is home and has far more to play for, on the last day of play in Group 9, hoping for at least a point to ensure a second-place finish and a shot at being one of the eight-best European second-place teams -- advancing to a home-and-home playoffs to determine Europe's final four berths to South Africa. (Though a victory likely would be necessary to accrue enough points to put the Scotland in the playoffs.) Scotland is coming off a 2-0 victory over Macedonia. Birmingham City striker James McFadden scored in that one, and appears to be Scotland's top threat. The question here is how much the Dutch care about this match; if they are up for it, they should win, even in Glasgow. A Dutch victory, combined with a Norway home victory over Macdeonia, puts the Norwegians into second place on the basis of goal differential.

9. Colombia at Uruguay, at Montevideo. Resurgent Colombia could jump into fourth place -- and South America has four guaranteed slots to the 2010 finals -- with a road victory combined with an Argentina defeat at Paraguay. But the Colombians have yet to win a road match (though they have four ties in seven outings, including one vs. Brazil), and have struggled to score (only nine goals) throughout qualifying. Young strikers Jackson Martinez and Teofilo Gutierrez found the net in a 2-0 victory over Ecuador on Saturday. This is a last stand for Uruguay, a nation with a proud World Cup pedigree (championships in 1930 and 1950) that has struggled of late; a 1-0 defeat at lowly Peru on Saturday was crushing. Victory is imperative if the Uruguayans hope to finish even fifth in the South America standings and play the Concacaf No. 4 finisher for a berth in South Africa.

8. Croatia at England, at London. It's England, Masters of the Game, with round-the-clock media coverage, and a chance to clinch a 2010 berth, so Everything Seems Bigger around this national side. So we will include this one in our 10, even though the English, unbeaten after seven Group 6 matches, probably finish first even with a defeat, given that they still will be up a point, with a match in hand, and impossible to catch if they can scrounge three points from games at Ukraine and home against Belarus. Recollections of Croatia keeping England from Euro 2008 are still keen in England. Croatia will play at Wembley Stadium without midfield star Luka Modric.

7. Portugal at Hungary, at Budapest. A bell is about to toll for somebody here -- either the underachieving Portuguese or the (till a moment ago) overachieving Hungarians. A defeat would be disastrous to either side, currently fourth and second in Europe Group 1. It remains hard to imagine that Cristian Ronaldo and Portugal could miss the World Cup, but they will if they lose to Hungary, which is coming off a crushing, last-minute 2-1 loss (at home) to Sweden.

6.
Argentina at Paraguay, at Asuncion. The Argentines haven't won a qualifier on the road in nearly two years, but this would be a good time to start, against the No. 3 team in the South America standings. Paraguay has much as stake, as well: A victory clinches a berth in South Africa with two matches in hand. Diego Maradona, Argentina coach, needs offense from Lionel Messi or Carlos Tevez or someone. Paraguay, anything but a glamour squad, is getting fine play from attackers Salvador Cabanas (Club America) and Nelson Valdez (Borussia Dortmund), midfielder Cristian Riveros (Cruz Azul) and keeper (and captain) Justo Villar, who plays at Valladolid in Spain.

5. Bahrain at Saudi Arabia, at Riyadh. This is the last match in Asia qualifying and will determine who finishes fifth -- and moves on as the favorite to defeat Oceania champion New Zealand in a home-and-home for a South Africa berth. The winner will be the representative of the Arab world in the World Cup, so the stakes are huge. They played a scoreless match in Manama on Saturday in the first half of a home-and-home playoffs. Which means Saudi goes through with a 1-0 victory, but Bahrain advances (on the strength of away goals) if it can manage a 1-1 or 2-2 tie. Saudi Arabia has the more interesting international pedigree (four finals appearances to Bahrain's none), but there is little to choose from between these teams, currently ranked Nos. 64 and 65 in FIFA's international rankings.

4. France at Serbia, at Belgrade. Serbia can clinch Group 7 with a home victory, and is favored to do so, playing at home. France won the match at Stade de France, 2-1, last October, but the talented but erratic French are coming off a frustrating home draw vs. Romania. Coach Raymond Domenech may not survive a defeat, and he will need production from Thierry Henry and Nicolas Anelka for France to win and turn this into a race to the finish.

3. Slovakia at Northern Ireland, at Belfast. Two surprise teams playing for the lead in Group 3. The Ulstermen, after taking a point out of Poland on Saturday, can jump Slovakia in the standings with a victory at Windsor Park (although Slovakia has a game in hand). Kyle Lafferty, the goal-scorer in Poland, may sit this out with a knee injury, meaning David Healy will be looked to for offense. Slovakia just suffered a home draw with the Czechs, twice losing leads and slowing the charge for ts first World Cup berth as an independent nation. But a victory here would put the Slovaks in excellent shape to finish first, and they could even clinch Wednesday if things break right elsewhere.

2. Switzerland at Latvia, at Riga. Latvia never has played in a World Cup finals, but the unfancied Balts could turn Europe Group 2 into madness of they defeat the visiting Swiss, creating a three-way tie atop the standings at 16 points if Greece wins at bottom-feeder Moldova. Latvia's players play for some utterly unremarkable European sides, many of them in the domestic league. Kaspars Gorkss, a defender for Queen's Park Rangers, a second-tier English club, scored the goal at Israel on Saturday that vaulted the Letts into contention to win the group. Switzerland normally is led by the veteran attacking duo of Alexander Frei and Blaise Kufo, but it was midfielder Marco Padalino and defender Stephane Grichting who scored in the key, 2-0 home victory over Greece on Saturday. It isn't a stretch to suggest this is the biggest soccer match in Latvia's history.

1. Honduras at Mexico, at Mexico City. Los Tricolores (almost) never lose at Estadio Azteca, but Honduras is big, athletic and on a roll, having won its last two matches by an aggregate 8-1 score. If Carlos Costly, Carlos Pavon, David Suazo & Co. can get a goal or two in Mexico City's smog and altitude, it could lead directly to South Africa 2010. (Little noticed: Honduras has conceded only seven goals in seven matches, fewest in the Concacaf Hexagonal.) Mexico is back on track after trashing Costa Rica 3-0 at San Jose, with prodigy Giovani dos Santos leading the way. Both these teams are involved in the four-team clot atop the regional standings and seem supremely confident. It could be a great match. Read more!

Monday, September 7, 2009

The Shame of the Own Goal

Is there a bigger gaffe in sports?

Putting a soccer ball into your own goal.

Does it get any worse than that?

Well, yes.

When you put the ball into your own net ... twice. In the same game. For the only two goals in a match. A World Cup qualifying match, at that.

And that is what happened to a poor defender in a Saturday qualifier.

Georgia's captain, a veteran defender named Kakha Kaladze, gave up two own goals in his country's 2-0 loss to Italy in a European Group 8 match on Saturday.

That is, Italy doesn't score if Kaladze doesn't score for it.

Twice.

What compares in infamy to a soccer own goal? Someone taking a safety in American football is dire, but it's two points in a game that might have 20 or 30 scored. Scoring for the other team occasionally happens in basketball, but again, it's a fraction of the scoring.

Nope. I think an own goal in soccer is the most embarrassing event in sports. Especially in modern sports, where the own goals can (and are) seen by millions on television and played and replayed over and again, and everyone can see a guy directing the ball into his own net.

Kaladze wasn't the only misfortunate to score for the opposition on Saturday. Another was French defender Julien Escude, whose own goal in the 58th minute cost France a victory over Romania. The French settled for a 1-1 tie, but France's media seemed far more interested in blaming the coach, Raymond Domenech, than Escude, who redirected a ball into his own net.

Kaladze is a quality player; he is property of Italian power AC Milan. But he was playing in his first match in seven months, following knee surgery, and odds are he will be remembered for his two-own-goals performance as much as for anything positive he ever has done.

Kaladze, sadly, showed his versatility by managing to score once in the air and once on the ground. Ugh. He headed in Angelo Palombo's cross 56 minutes into the match at Tbilisi before miskicking a clearance which also flew into the net.

According to Reuters, Kaldze said, "My team did well and we showed our heart. I'm so sorry, it's my fault. It hurts me. I don't know what to say."

The most infamous own-goal scorer of all time probably is Andres Escobar of Colombia, who gave up an own goal against the United States in the 1994 World Cup, a game the U.S. won 2-1.

That own goal was what put the U.S. into the second round ... and sent home a well-regarded Colombia team (Pele had predicted Colombia would win the World Cup) after the first round.

What cemented Escobar's gaffe in the minds of fans is that he was shot and killed outside a bar, in Colombia, 10 days later. One popular theory behind the shooting is that drug lords who had bet heavily on Colombia took vengeance on Escobar for his innocent mistake.

At any rate, I couldn't name five other defenders who played in the 1994 World Cup aside from Escobar. And I bet, in Georgia, and in Italy (at the least), Kakha Kaladze will be a name that will live in infamy for a long, long time.
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Sunday, September 6, 2009

The Road to 2010: African Qualifying Matches

The massive qualifier weekend -- 40 matches in two days -- concluded with six African matches today.

The short of it is ... Ghana clinched a berth in South Africa 2010 ... Tunisia scored a stunning goal in the final minute at Nigeria to hold on to first place in its group ... and Algeria won a late game to stay atop its group.

Expanding a bit on the highlights:

Ghana 2, Sudan 0: The Black Stars are booked for the World Cup finals for the second time -- after never having qualified before 2006. To be honest, Group D was astonishingly weak. Ghana had only to beat out Mali, Benin and Sudan, and after four consecutive shutout victories, the Black Stars are in -- with two matches in hand. It helps when you've got the likes of Stephen Appiah, Michael Essien (Chelsea), Sulley Muntari (Inter Milan) and John Mensah (Sunderland) -- and your opponents do not.

Nigeria 2, Tunisia 2: The Super Eagles were scant minutes away from victory -- and a dramatic jump over Tunisia and into first place in Group B -- when Oussama Darragi scored for Tunisia to force a tie and reduce Nigeria's points haul from three to one. Tunisia thus remains atop the group with eight points with Nigeria second with six. A stunning result. Nigeria and Tunisia each have matches left against also-rans Kenya and Mozambique. It was a a scoreless draw at Mozambique that got Nigeria into the fix it is now; maybe the Super Eagles can hope the Carthage Eagles stumble at Maputo, as well, when they visit in November. If not, Tunisia will qualify for its fourth consecutive World Cup.

Algeria 1, Zambia 0: Rafik Saifi scored in the 58th minute to give Algeria a victory that wasn't finished until nearly midnight. Algeria thus remains three points ahead of Egypt in Group C. Algeria must still play at Egypt, on Nov. 14, but even an Egyptian victory likely won't be enough to get the Pharoahs to South Africa because Algeria has a plus-5 goal differential to Egypt's plus-2. Egypt needs to win by three goals (the U.S., from the Confederations Cup, might be able to help Egypt with that) ... or get help from feeble Rwanda when it plays at Algeria next month. Basically, Algeria is all but in.

Now we take a breath ... and get ready for another big round of matches on Wednesday.
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The Road to 2010: Western Hemisphere

More qualifying madness! Eight matches in the Americas on Saturday to wrap up a huge day of qualifying matches for South Africa 2010.

We dealt with the Eastern Hemisphere in the post below. Now for the New World ...

In short, the salient events were Mexico going into Costa Rica and spanking the Ticos ... Argentina being pummeled by Brazil, but the damage being limited, apparently, only to to Argentine pride. Brazil, meanwhile, clinched a berth in South Africa, continuing its run of never having failed to qualify for the finals.

More on the Western Hemisphere:

Game of the day: Mexico 3, Costa Rica 0. Giovani dos Santos, the attacking revelation from Tottenham, scored the first goal and assisted on the others as Los Tricolores blistered the Ticos in their home stadium and thoroughly recalibrated the Concacaf qualifying picture. The standings now are excruciatingly tight, but resurgent Mexico now is in the best position to gain one of the region's three guaranteed berths to South Africa 2010, and here's why: Mexico gets two of its final three matches at home, where it is always formidable, and ends at Trinidad & Tobago, which will be playing for nothing. And of the two home matches, only Honduras, on Wednesday, figures to be a test; the other is against little El Salvador. ... Meanwhile, Costa Rica, which led the standings most of the year, has been blitzed 7-0 in its last two matches and must recover in a hurry to avoid finishing fourth. The Ticos go up to El Salvador on Wednesday, and the Salvadorans haven't lost at home yet in the Hexagonal; gets T&T at home (a fairly certain three points) -- and then plays at the U.S., where it hasn't done well in decades.

Surprisingly inconsequential game of the day: Brazil 3, Argentina 1. Whenever these two meet, it's a competition of global significance. But Argentina's heavy defeat, even at home, did not cost it its fourth-place position in the South American standings because its top pursuers stumbled as well, and to sides not vaguely as formidable as la selecao. Argentina needs to win a road match however, something it hasn't been up to for nearly two years, if it wants to hang onto the fourth spot -- and a guaranteed berth at South Africa. (The No. 5 finisher goes into a playoff with Concacaf's No. 4 finisher.) Argentina goes to third-place Paraguay next, gets bottom-dweller Peru at home and finishes at Uruguay in a match that could determine Nos. 4-5. ... Meanwhile, Brazil punched its ticket to South Africa, thanks to two goals from Luis Fabiano, the Sevilla striker. Which was no great surprise, if a relief for Carlos Dunga & Co. ... Meanwhile, we have to wonder of Diego Maradona, Argentina's coach, might be in trouble if he doesn't get a result at Paraguay.

Ugly game of the day: United States 2, El Salvador 1. We didn't see them all, of course, but it would be hard to top the listless and erratic performances these two turned in, in Sandy, Utah. The U.S. was shockingly sloppy in the back, clearly missing AC Milan's Oguchi Onyewu (one-game suspension), but the Salvadorans were unable to take advantage of a half-dozen great scoring chances. Landon Donovan was one of the few Americans who played well, setting up both goals with fine service from distance, and working back into the defense for all 90 minutes. A week from now, of course, it will look only like the Americans successfully defending their home turf. The Yankees go to Trinidad & Tobago on Wednesday and would be well-advised to come back with three points against the region's cellar-dweller.

Biggest missed opportunity of the day: Peru 1, Uruguay 0. The two-time World Cup champions had the easiest road test to be had in South America, at sea level, against guppy Peru, where the national team was in open revolt against the federation over money issues. But Uruguay couldn't manage a goal and conceded one to Hernan Rengifro in the 86th minute, and the Uruguayans missed a chance to move into fifth place, only one point behind fourth-place Argentina.

Most dramatic home improvement: Colombia 2, Ecuador 0. After a rough patch that lasted almost a year, Colombia thrust itself squarely into the discussion for the No. 5 spot -- and maybe even the No. 4 spot currently occupied by Argentina. Jackson Martinez and Teofilo Gutierrez scored in the final 15 minutes to win it for Colombia at Medellin, and the Colombians now are tied with Ecuador for fifth, with 20 points. Colombia is at Uruguay on Wednesday in a critical match,
then gets Chile at home and Paraguay away, next month. A tough road, but now doable.

And now we turn our attention to the five Africa matches being contested today. More on that to come.
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Saturday, September 5, 2009

The Road to 2010: Eastern Hemisphere

All the matches in Europe and Africa today are now complete and I saw one of them myself, France vs. Romania at Stade de France. Which had a surprise result of its own.

An overview of what we have found out, so far today, from among the 26 matches in the Eastern Hemisphere:

Most impressive victory: Spain 5, Belgium 0. Forget that defeat against the United States in the Confederations Cup. Those Spaniards are back, and they went all medieval on Belgium today in La Coruna. David Villa and David Silva each scored twice in the rout. Spain hasn't quite clinched Group 5 (even at 7-0-0), but it could as soon as Wednesday.

Most deflating defeat: Cameroon 2, Gabon 0. Gabon never has been in a World Cup finals. Most of its players compete in second-tier leagues, or worse. But Gabon won its first two matches while Cameroon settled for a defeat and a draw, and things looked great for the Gabonese, who had a chance to bury Cameroon, their most dangerous opponent in Group A, and all but clinch the group ... but the Indomitable Lions dominated the match in Libreville. Talk about a buzz kill ...

Most rewarding draw: Little Northern Ireland, finals outsiders since 1986, went to the boonies of Chorzow to play Poland and got out with a 1-1 draw -- and almost a victory. Keeping Poland from the three points from a home victory reinforces Northern Ireland's chances of finishing second in Group 3 -- and maybe even catching Slovakia to win it.

Most exciting draw: Slovakia 2, Czech Republic 2: They once shared a country; now they are great rivals. Stanislav Sestak gave Slovakia a 1-0 lead in the 60th minute, Daniel Pudil answered in the 68th minute. Marek Hamsik scored a penalty in the 73rd minute ... and Milan Baros tied it again in the 84th minute. Slovakia could have put some distance between itself and Northern Ireland in Group 3, but now the Ulstermen could move ahead when they get Slovakia in Belfast on Wednesday.

Most frustrating draw: France 1, Romania 1. This was the match I saw, and French fans were muttering darkly as they streamed out of the stadium. France dominated the first half but couldn't score. All three forwards in their 4-3-3 formation had great chances -- and couldn't put them away. France finally broke through in the 48th minute on a Henry goal ... but then conceded an own goal eight minutes later when Julien Escude redirected a ball into his own net. The French threw everyone forward for the final half-hour, including Franck Ribery, who didn't start ... but they became unhinged and Romania actually had a chance or two to take the lead. Now, France is all but resigned to finishing second in Group 7, needing to win the home-and-home playoff against another second-place team to reach South Africa. Hard times for les bleus and coach Raymond Domenech, who could be fired if the French don't look much better in their match with group leader Serbia in Belgrade on Wednesday.

Most disappointing draw: Denmark 1, Portugal 1. The disappointment cuts both ways, but it hurts more for Portugal, which really needed a road victory to spark a late rally in Group 1. Portugal did well to avoid defeat, thanks to a Liedson goal in the 86th minute, but Cristiano Ronaldo's team is down to fourth place in Group 1 and almost needs to sweep Hungary in its next two matches to hope to finish second, never mind first. The Danes, with 17 points, are too far over the horizon for the Portuguese (10 points) to catch.

Most interesting scoreless draw:
Saudi Arabia 0, Bahrain 0. The Saudis and Bahrain are playing a home-and-home series to determine who finishes fifth in Asia -- and gets to play New Zealand in another home-and-home for a 2010 World Cup berth. Bahrain now has to play at Riyadh, which won't be easy, but it can advance with a tie of 1-1 or 2-2 (etc.) -- on the strength of the "away goals" tiebreaker.

Team that got itself back in contention: Sweden 2, Hungary 1. The Swedes would have been all but dead with a defeat, but they went into Budapest and got goals from Olof Mellberg and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, in extra time, to snatch a victory, jump to third and become well-situated to finish at least second -- because two of its final three matches are at Malta and home against Albania. That is, six nearly automatic points.

Team that took itself out of contention: Latvia 1, Israel 0. The Israelis weren't the smart way to bet, for a South Africa berth, but they had a shot -- till this disastrous home defeat to the Latvians. Israel is finished, but Latvia now is tied for second with Greece in Group 2.

Team that took charge: Switzerland 2, Greece 0: These two were tied atop Group 2 in Europe, but the Swiss got late goals from Stephane Grichting (84th minute) and Marco Padalino (88th), and now the Group 2 road to South Africa goes through the Alps.

And now we wait for the Western Hemisphere to check in with the rest of the big day in South Africa qualifying.
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Friday, September 4, 2009

Qualifier Preview: Northern Ireland at Poland

To outsiders unfamiliar with the long histories of the peoples involved, the idea of the British Isles fielding five national soccer teams seems silly. Almost absurd.

But there you have it: England, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales each mount their own World Cup campaigns each four years. And four of those "countries" are actually part of Great Britain and ruled from London.

Perhaps it is no surprise that England is the only member of that Balkanized quintet to have accomplished much in recent World Cup finals.

Wales hasn't been to a World Cup since 1958 (not even Ryan Giggs was alive then). Scotland has made eight World Cup finals appearances but never survived the first round. Ireland has been to only three World Cups (though all three have been since 1990, and that 1990 team got to the quarterfinals).

Then there is Northern Ireland, which has only three World Cup appearances, and none since 1986.

(Ulstermen, however, note that Northern Ireland, population 1.7 million, was the smallest country to have played in the World Cup, until Trinidad & Tobago qualified in 2006, and remains the smallest country to make the second round.)

This Northern Ireland team, though, has a chance to end a 24-year drought. But getting at least one point at to-date-disappointing Poland on Saturday would seem to be required.

As you can see in the European Group 3 standings, the Ulstermen have a shot at winning the group, and an even better one of finishing at least second and getting into a home-and-home playoff for one of the final four of Europe's 13 South Africa 2010 berths.

Getting a result out of the small and remote Polish city of Chorzow won't be easy, and may hinge on whether star forward David Healy, who plays for Premiership squad Sunderland, can end his six-match international goal drought. Healy has 35 goals in 75 national team appearances, and told the Belfast Telegraph this week that he feels ready to break out of his slump.

Northern Ireland also can look for scoring from midfielder Grant McCann, who has two in group play, or forwards Kyle Lafferty and Warren Feeney.

The Ulstermen seem likely to be very cautious in going forward because Poland desperately needs three points from a win, and star defender Jonny Evans (Manchester United) and veteran keeper Maik Taylor (Birmingham City) figure to be busy in the back.

The Poles have been regular participants in the finals for the past few decades, appearing in six of the last nine World Cups and twice (1974, 1982) finishing third. Indeed, looking at this group a year ago the teams that seemed most likely to finish first and second were Poland and the Czech Republic -- which lags behind even Poland in the group standings.

Poland got itself into this fix by taking a 1-1 draw at home against little Slovenia and losing 3-2 at Belfast against even littler Northern Ireland.

Ebi Smolarek, a forward who plays for Dutch club Feyenoord, is Poland's most dangerous attacker; he has six goals in four group qualifying matches -- though five came in a pair of victories over San Marino.

Naturalized Brazilian Roger Guerreio is a scoring threat, as is veteran midfielder Jacek Krzynowek, who plays for Hannover 96.

The Poles have been a bit leaky in the back, conceding seven goals in the four matches that weren't against San Marino. Goalkeeper Artur Boruc, who plays for Scottish club Celtic, has the experience, but it isn't clear if coach Leo Beenhakker, the well-traveled Dutchman, will have Boruc in the starting 11. The major presence on the back line is veteran (and captain) Michal Zewlakow, who scored in the previous match with Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland has been giving out hints of playing conservatively and perhaps hoping for a scoreless draw, with a long-range hope that none of its pursuers can scrape up enough victories to catch it. But that seems a dangerous strategy because the Ulsterman have only two qualifying matches left after this one, and both appear difficult -- home against group leader Slovakia next week, and on the road against the Czechs next month.

Poland, meanwhile, doesn't have an easy path, either. It gets Slovenia on the road next week, then plays the Czechs away and finishes at home against Slovakia -- which likely will be playing for championship of the group. The home match against Northern Ireland actually looks like the most winnable of the four matches to be played.

If either Northern Ireland or Poland can take three points out of Saturday match, it changes the nature of the group radically.
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Thursday, September 3, 2009

Qualifier Preview: Tunisia at Nigeria

I love African World Cup qualifying. I love it to death. The only thing that would intrigue me more than an African qualifier is the African Cup of Nations, but since that isn't be competed for right at this monent ...

To someone from North America, African qualifying it is the essence of exotic. Gabon, Ivory Coast (or Cote d'Ivoire), Morocco, Zambia ... it's like a recitation of the profoundly mysterious and vaguely intimidating.

Thus, we head into Part 4 of our blog posts about key World Cup qualifying matches being played this weekend. This one is about Tunisia vs. host Nigeria at Abuja, on Sunday, and someone could be in very good shape when it is over ... and someone else could be thinking in terms of 2014, instead of South Africa 2010.

Check out the standings in Group B.

It's quite straightforward. Whoever wins the game is in control, and only the winner of the group gets to go to South Africa 2010. Loser goes home.

From a global perspective, there is a sense of Nigeria as a World Cup underachiever and Tunisia as an overachiever. The results might not bear out the perception, but there you are.

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa (with 150 million people, compared to Tunisia's 10.5 million), has been to three World Cup finals (1994, 1998, 2002), and looked genuinely dangerous each time, especially so in 1998, when a big and athletic team led by coaching gypsy Bora Milutinivoc registered victories over Spain and Bulgaria and moved into the second round ... where Denmark routed the Nigerians 4-1.

Nigeria appeared to be a soccer power on the rise, especially considering it won the African Cup of Nations in 1994. But then came the 2002 World Cup and an uninspired first-round exit, followed by no appearance at all in 2006, and now you are forgiven if you wonder if Nigeria has stalled out and has settled into a pattern of underachieving.

This is the match where Nigeria can do something about that reputation.

Nwanko Kanu, a veteran striker who plays for Portsmouth of the English Premier League, is Nigeria's best-known player. But the Super Eagles also count on brothers Ikechukwu and Kalu Uche, both forwards, who play for Spanish clubs Real Zaragoza and Almeira, respectively.

Ikechukwu Uche has scored four goals during qualifying. Nigeria is waiting, however, for the first goals in this qualifying campaign from Kanu and Kalu Uche, in the match at Abuja, the Nigerian capital, on Saturday. It is a bit ironic that Nigeria's best-known players are strikers, because the Super Eagles have managed only three goals in three final-group matches, including a draw at Mozambique -- the result that left them sitting second, to Tunisia.

Nigeria and Tunisia fought to a scoreless draw in their first match, at Tunisia, and the winner of this one figures to be in good shape.

Tunisia is one of the scrappy Maghreb teams that have been fairly prevalent in the World Cup final draw, of late. The Tunisians, who are known for their comprehensive and intelligent approach to developing young talent, are looking for their fourth consecutive trip to the finals, and if they can escape Abuja with even a point, they are likely to make it to South Africa. Also, it was Tunisia that recorded the first victory for an African team in World Cup play, defeating Mexico 3-1 in 1978.

Issam Jomaa, a striker who plays with Lens of France's Ligue 1, is a key figure in the attack. On the defensive side, Tunisia likely will count on Hannover 96 teammates Karim Haggui and Soufiane Chahed

Whoever can manage a goal in this one probably will win. And if there is a winner, look for that team to be in South Africa.

A tie is all for the good, for Tunisia. It ends Group B qualifying with a home match against Kenya and a road match with underpowered Mozambique, and the Carthage Eagles will be favored in both matches.

Nigeria, meanwhile, clearly needs a victory, and coach Roger Lemerre's team -- backed by a friendly home crowd in Abuja -- may be able to make it happen.
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