Honduras Keeps Home Match Despite Unrest

An ousted president holed up in the Brazilian embassy?

A country being run by the leaders of a coup?

Cops taking over a pro-opposition radio station?

Not enough to convince FIFA to move a World Cup qualifying match out of Honduras.

The Oct. 10 match with the United States is crucial to Honduras's hopes of qualifying for the World Cup for only the second time in the country's history. Honduras is 4-0 at home in the final round of Concacaf qualifying, and losing its fifth and final home game -- to a neutral site or even to the U.S. -- would represent a disadvantage for the Central American nation's team.

To be sure, FIFA is in a delicate position.

--By saying the match won't be moved, FIFA runs the risk of appearing to legitimize the current government. Which isn't popular in most of the rest of Latin America. FIFA probably doesn't care who's in charge, but saying the Honduras match vs. the U.S. at San Pedro Sula will go on, that it's business as usual ... seems to suggest a tilt toward the current government, which took power via a coup.

--However, if FIFA were to move the match out of Honduras it might be seen as favoritism toward the U.S., which is a huge and lucrative and growing market for soccer. Certainly, soccer's global marketers would rather see the U.S. team -- representing 300 million people and the planet's biggest economy -- at South Africa in 2010 than Honduras's. And having Honduras play the U.S. anywhere but inside Honduras presumably would hurt Honduras and help the U.S.

Note the conditional tone in the FIFA statement. It "reserves the right to revisit the issue" should conditions deteriorate. Violence in the streets probably would qualify as a condition for revisiting the issue.

Certainly, the country isn't a tableau of peace and calm, as the latest news story out of Teguchigalpa indicates. Political wrangling is ongoing.

At the end of the day, FIFA just wants its schedule to go off as scheduled. So do most fans.

FIFA, like the International Olympic Committee, like any other world sports body, prefers to stay out of political issues. Unless it absolutely cannot. It would be nice to say FIFA wants peace ... but mostly it wants stability.

The next week or so should determine whether what is going on in Honduras can be ignored long enough to get in an international soccer match. Ultimately, soccer isn't bigger than life; it just seems like it sometimes.
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Maradona Hoping for Divine Intervention

This can't be good: Your coach is asking for the intervention of the Almighty to get his team to South Africa 2010. It's come to that?

Yes, we have more on Diego Maradona, who seems to fascinate the soccer world. Maybe because he has stood at such heights but also plumbed such depths?

That's the big picture. The smaller one, and more relevant to this discussion, is his role as coach of Argentina's struggling national team.

Maradona is now asking for God to take sides, at least when it comes to his team.

Argentina, one of the dozen most significant soccer-playing countries on the planet, has two South America qualifying matches left, and it could see its 2010 World Cup situation go one of three ways -- one good, one less good, one quite bad.

To wit:

1. Argentina wins one of South America's four guaranteed berths in South Africa by gaining at least one draw from its next two matches -- and getting help (from Uruguay or Chile) against Ecuador, currently sitting fourth. How much help depends on whether Argentina accrues six points, four points, three points, two points or one point from its games -- at home Oct. 10 vs. Peru, on the road Oct. 14 vs. Uruguay. For example: One point requires that Ecuador lose twice (for starters, because Uruguay, Venezuela and Colombia remain in contention). Six points means Argentina is in the top four unless Ecuador also wins twice (or Chile loses twice).

2. Argentina finishes fifth and moves into a home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf, which could be the United States, Mexico, Honduras -- but most likely Costa Rica. Argentina will be favored to advance, in this scenario, but given what it has done of late ...

3. Argentina finishes sixth, and is done until the 2014 World Cup.

The story here is that Argentina is in trouble, at all. Here are the standings in the continental qualifying.

Finishing behind Brazil; no shame there.

It's the idea of finishing sixth, behind some good-but-not-great soccer powers (Paraguay, Chile, Ecuador and, say, Uruguay) that has the soccer world puzzled.

In terms of the standings, it's simple: Argentina has lost four of its last five qualifiers, under Maradona (four of six since he was named coach, in November of last year), including a 6-1 drubbing at Bolivia and a 3-1 home spanking at the hands of Brazil. Which is why Argentina is 6-4-6 (victories, draws, defeats) and has slipped to fifth place.

Maradona has been down the road with God before. At least in his own mind. He prefers the description "hand of God" when referring to his handball that was erroneously counted as a goal against England in the 1986 World Cup semifinals. Maradona may see God's handiwork there, but we are fairly certain Providence would not show his favor by allowing you to cheat successfully.

Our sense always has been that supernatural beings are hands-off, when it comes to sports results. They leave it to simple humans to figure it out. To suggest God or Allah or Yahweh (et al) wanted you to win and saw to it that you did ... is more than a little insulting to the other sides. (God hates loves Diego and Argentina but hates Ecuador?)

Argentina will rise of fall on the merits of its players, which are obvious and well-known, or the merits of the team's coach -- which are questionable and, apparently, require divine intervention as part of the program.
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Fabio Capello: England's Hard Man

Fabio Capello won't be taking any grief from England's players before or during the World Cup, according to Stuart Pearce, an assistant coach.

Capello, England's coach from Italy, already is on record about severely limiting World Cup access to players by "WAGs" -- the English acronym for "wives and girlfriends." WAGs were an ongoing story at the 2006 World Cup, to the detriment of the national side, some believev.

Capello said players and WAGs will be in contact only on the day after World Cup matches, at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

Now, Pearce has been quoted as saying Capello will boot from the squad any player found guilty of breaking team rules twice.

This probably is a good idea. The scrutiny of English players is enormous and eternal, with the numerous, competetive and aggressive English media responsible for much of it. But, too, this is a country that invented the game and wonders why it hasn't won a World Cup since 1966.

Keeping English players focused on tasks at hand would seem to be Job 1, and Capello is acting as if he understands that.

Pearce said that players will be warned after their first breach of the rules, and will be gone after the second.

Still, we have to wonder if, say, top scorer Wayne Rooney, will be treated quite as harshly as a lesser member of the squad.

Perhaps so. If nothing else, England's romp through qualifying has given Capello so much credibility, so much coaching capital, that he can threaten ... and probably even carry out those threats ... without great harm to his status.

Perhaps an indication of his current power? Two newspapers issued apologies to Capello for publishing photos of him and his wife taking a mud bath during a vacation in Italy last week. English newspapers generally don't apologize for anything.

Thus, for now, Capello seems to be setting himself up as the hard man of English soccer. The coach who will not be putting up with even the mildest hijinks from the lads.
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Still Talking about Argentina: Higuain Added

For months now, almost no national team has engendered as much conversation as that of Argentina.

Why? Because Argentina is one of the planet's leading soccer countries ... is coached by one of the sport's greatest stars ... and is at risk of not qualifying for South Africa 2010.

Hence, it is no surprise that the announcement of Argentina's player pool for its final two World Cup qualifying matches ... is a significant news story.

The biggest news here?

The call up of 21-year-old forward Gonzalo Higuain.

Argentina has been starved for goals, and Higuain already is getting lots of playing time with Real Madrid. So his addition to the team, by coach Diego Maradona, makes sense.

Argentina's situation: It is fifth in the South America standings. The top four finishers, after the matches of Oct. 10 and 14, go to South Africa. The No. 5 team enters a home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf for a berth in the 2010 finals.

Argentina is home to Peru on Oct. 10, and finishes at Uruguay on Oct. 14. The first match should be easy; the second could decide who finishes fourth, fifth -- or worse.

So that's why we are paying attention to Argentina's every move. It is impossible to think of the 2010 World Cup without it ... but it is quite possible to see how it could finish sixth in the South America standings.
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SA Columnist Warns Readers of 2010 'Aliens'

Now, here is some genuine cross-cultural ... oh, humor? Attempt at humor? Proof that what outsiders don't know about South Africa and what a sports columnist doesn't quite know about foreigners ... is truly a vast tract of intellectual territory.

A columnist named Carlos Amato has done a bit of satire, appearing on the Johannesburg Sunday Times Web site, on some of the visitors South Africans can expect to see during the World Cup in 2010. The are described as "aliens" in the secondary headline, and we can be fairly certain we are meant to think of "extra terrestrials" even before we conjure up another meaning. That is, foreigners.

I admire writers/journalists who attempt satire. Being funny -- and there is wit here -- is hard. In any language. I've been there, done that, and not always successfully. American actor and comedian Steve Martin once declared that "comedy is not pretty," and he has that right.

Anyway, it's always a bit tricky when you start slinging national stereotypes. Missing the mark is a near-certainty, especially if the prose is examined from outside the writer's immediate readership. And it is his immediate readership that is, by far, best-positioned to recognize the South African terms he uses, and who are familiar with local-culture pop references that non-South Africans can only guess at. (Do the Spice Girls have some history with Nelson Mandela?)

But it also shows that we can be looking into voids of misunderstanding even when speaking in the same language, more or less.

Let's look at some of his (yes, broad and overstated) ideas about the fans of several national teams.

Starting with the English.

He opens with a riff on the Spice Girls, who he has decided should be known as the Spice Tannies, and those of us who can form a mental picture of stick-thin Victoria "Posh Spice" Beckham can see humor in the author's suggestion that the "Tannies" can "convert their sunglasses into improvised shacks."

Then there is a bit about a presumably typical English soccer lout, this one a man named Barry who weighs 200 kilograms (440 pounds) and has passed out from over-indulgence and needs to be revived via mouth-to-mouth ministrations. (OK, gross humor; some comics make a career of it.) Meanwhile, the South African Good Samaritan tries not to look at the enormous breasts of this particular drunken soccer lout who has, on each breast, "a life-sized tattoo of Alan Shearer nailed to a cross." (Alan Shearer is a former English soccer great.)

The author moves on to American soccer fans, and his depiction of 18-19-year-old dreadlocked Coloradoans is peculiar. Very. Perhaps the only Americans the author has seen in South Africa are college-age backpackers? Amato suggests the Americans will be more interested in hacky-sack (a fad that seems to have disappeared years ago, by the way). "Already, these American kids secretly prefer hacky-sack to soccer, because they understand the rules better. You will see groups of them in Gautrain station platforms, kicking a hacky-sack. If you participate, they will befriend you, and bore the living crap out of you. Do not participate."

He also suggests that, in 2011, the dreadlocked American hacky-sack fans "will all go to college, where they will realise that soccer is a sport for socialists, Latinos and cannibals."

Hmmm. Well. Yes, some Americans are massively disinterested in soccer, but they will not be among those fans roaming South Africa next summer. Americans already have bought twice as many 2010 World Cup tickets as any other national group, and the people using those tickets will be quite serious soccer fans, actually. Have to be, to go all the way to South Africa from North America, at great expense.

There is a line about Dutch fans and hashish and mayonnaise, a suggestion that Italian fans will be interested in "seducing your mum," a riff about North Korean fans wanting to visit a power station (to spy on it?) and a half-sentence about how South Africans can expect to "hear Nigerian fans long before you see them."

And an unfortunate line about local citizens needing to make sure they "do not accuse visiting Egyptians of sleeping with prostitutes merely because you think it's possible they did." A reference to a Confederations Cup scandal centering around Egyptian national team contentions that players had personal items stolen while in a South Africa hotel, and South African authorities suggesting the problem was about Egyptian players inviting prostitutes into their rooms.

Actually, the piece is fascinating, in a cultural forensics sort of way. Because the Joburg Sunday Times is one of the best newspapers in the country, we have to assume that the author is considered amusing. And that he knows the boundaries of good taste vs. bad taste, in his community.

But, clearly, only certain bits of humor successfully cross oceans, or national borders.

The column does accomplish this: It reminds us that the sort of labeling/stereotyping most of us do when trying to boil down foreign cultures ... well, it's easy to be wrong. Maybe even offensive. (Anyone in Egypt laughing at the "prostitute" line?)

I don't want to be a scold, because I've been on the other side of a self-righteous scolding more times than I can count. Just saying ... this is the sort of subject to be approached with delicacy.

I recommend you read the Amato column. And, for your information, a "lilo" is an inflatable air mattress. And I assume a "stoep" is what we would call a "stoop" in America, Canada and England. That is, the Dutch-rooted word for "a small porch, platform or staircase leading to the entrance of a house or building."
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Oh, and Make Sure Your Tickets Are Legitimate

As if the would-be traveler to the 2010 World Cup didn't already have enough to worry about ...

Apparently, cyberspace is rife with people and sites keen to sell bogus World Cup tickets to football fans.

The Times of London today reported that New Scotland Yard has "closed more than 100 sites so far" that were trying to cheat fans eager to buy tickets to the event in South Africa next year.

Taking money and returning fake tickets -- or not even that.

The Times writes that "FIFA executives fear that these fraudsters are only the pioneers of an internet crimewave that will become more severe as the World Cup approaches.

"It is not only English fans who stand to suffer ... but thousands more around the world, with South Africa expecting up to 500,000 supporters from the 32 participating nations.

"FIFA has no precise figures, but it is thought that thousands of fans may already have handed over money for tickets that do not exist. But New Scotland Yard's cyberpolice ... are thought to have saved many more from parting with their cash and are leading the chase to make sure South Africa is not flooded next year with supporters holding worthless tickets and with no games to go to."

Let's put down a few simple ground rules, if you plan to buy tickets.

--If a ticket deal seems too good to be true, it is. Show some personal responsibility here.

--Unless you are buying from the authorized FIFA site, be very careful. Make sure the purveyor is a recongized, established tour operator or ticket broker. (And even then ...)

--Caveat emptor. Let the buyer beware.

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Crime Up: Attend SA 2010 at Your Own Risk

We can't sugarcoat this.

Any fan planning to attend the 2010 World Cup in South Africa should realize ... the country isn't safe.

It isn't safe by even the violent standards of, say, the United States. Or Russia. Or of a bunch of other countries known for violent crime. South Africa is way out there.

The Johannesburg Sunday Times this week wrote about national officials announcing South African crime statistics, and nearly every sort of violent crime is up -- often dramatically -- from the previous year (ending in February), with the exception of murder. Which is down, we are happy to note, 3.4 percent from a year ago.

Still, there were 18,148 murders in South Africa over the past year. Which works out to about 50 murders in the country ... every day of the year.

How does that compare to the rest of the world?

Badly.

South Africa not only is No. 2 in the world for most murders per capita, according to this Web site we just linked to (and those numbers indicate one out of every 2,000 citizens in South Africa was murdered in the previous year) ... South Africa is No. 4 in the world in total homicides (click on the "Total" stat on the site).

In murders per capita, South Africa ranks behind only Colombia, a state still in thrall to narco-terrorists ... and in sheer number of homicides, South Africa trails only India, Russia and Colombia. But India has 23 times South Africa's population of 50 million, and Russia has three times South Africa's population.

Anyway, look at those other stats, from the Joburg Sunday Times story. Business robberies, home invasions, carjackings ... all up. And steeply, in most cases. The country is going through an epidemic of mall robberies and attacks on armored cars and, deeper in the story, a business group suggests the government is undercounting some crimes.

What is behind those numbers? Generic lawlessness, clearly. But also poverty. Bad government. Social pressures. Gangsterism. Tribalism.

The Joburg Sunday Times was so agitated by all this that it wrote an angry/exasperated editorial about how Something Must Be Done. And the newspaper is right, if a little hazy on the details of how this something will be done, aside from more police in the streets.

Anyway, consider this: The United States is (fairly) regarded as a violent and dangerous country. But a person in South Afria is 12 times more likely to be murdered in South Africa as he or she is in the U.S. And compared to orderly and peaceful countries such as Switzerland and Japan ... South Africa is the Wild Wild West times about 100.

A couple of more disturbing stats:

1. If 50 people are murdered in South Africa every day, that means some 1,550 will be murdered during the 31 days of South Africa 2010;

2. The most dangerous province of them all? Gauteng, which happens to be where Johannesburg and Pretoria are located, and those two cities are the sites of three of the 10 stadiums that will play host to World Cup matches. And Johannesburg is the main air entre pot to the rest of the world. That is, a large proportion of fans and tourists will arrive in South Africa via Joburg.

So, as we have written here before, anyone planning to drop in for the 2010 World Cup, should go to South Africa knowing it is the most dangerous place in the world that isn't Colombia. That is, don't show up thinking you're in some sort of threat-free World Cup bubble. Because there aren't enough police in the country to safeguard tourists once they are away from the venues.

I'm not saying "don't go." In fact, given the chance to go, I will.

Just saying, "be aware." Go in with your eyes open and your guard up.
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Unrest in Honduras May Force Move of U.S. Match

Honduras is something of a mess, at the moment. A coup ousted the president, who snuck back into Honduras this week, and he is holed up in the Brazilian Embassy.

There is unrest in the streets, with supporters of the ousted president, Manuel Zelaya, confronting the police and armed forces.

Meanwhile, Honduran airports are closed, as are ports, and the only way into the country apparently is an overland route from neighboring El Salvador.

Political tension could make for sports improvisation, the Associated Press is reporting. To wit: The scheduled Oct. 10 match between Honduras's surprisingly formidable national team and the United States, scheduled at San Pedro Sula, the second city of Honduras, may have to be moved. Perhaps out of Honduras entirely.

According to the New York Times, Neil Buethe, a U.S. Soccer Federation spokesman, said, "We are obviously monitoring the situation closely and are in discussions with the appropriate officials with Concacaf and FIFA, who will determine if the location of the match will be moved outside of Honduras."

Where might the match be moved? The New York Times suggests Guatemala. The consensus seems to be it would be held somewhere in Central America, to give Honduras as big an advantage as possible -- given the situation. Though NYT notes that Honduras had lots of support when it played the U.S. in Chicago, in June.

The game is important on a really basic soccer level because the U.S. and Honduras are two of the four teams atop the close Concacaf qualifying table. With only two matches left.

The top three finishers are guaranteed berths at South Africa 2010. The No. 4 team goes to a home-and-home playoff with the No. 5 team out of South America.

Clearly, it is better to finish in the top three than to finish fourth.

The United States could clinch a top-three finish with a victory. Honduras would move very close to doing the same, were it to win. And the Hondurans would be favored in this match, under normal conditions, having won all four of their home matches in qualifying, to date. But the coach of the national team, Ramon Maradiego, said players are suffering from "constant uncertainty."

There is precedent for FIFA moving a qualifying match because of violence or upheaval in a country -- and in this qualifying phase, too. ESPN.com notes that, in 2007, a qualifier between China and Myanmar was staged in Malaysia after Myanmar's military broke up pro-democracy rallies, killing at least 10 people.

And NYT recalls that a 1996 U.S. match scheduled to be played in Guatemala was moved to El Salvador, "switching to a neutral site after a stadium stampede two months earlier in Guatemala City led to 84 deaths."

The World Cup is important. But not more important than the rise and fall of a government, and not more important than violence in the streets. You can't play a match when the rest of the city/country is in upheaval.

If Honduras doesn't settle down, and soon, look for that Oct. 10 match to be moved. Somewhere. Read more!

The 'U.S. League' Comment That Didn't Publish

A soccer fan/observer who goes by the handle of "Dawn Eos" (Eos is the Greek goddess of dawn) sent a thoughtful and informative e-mail ... because he (or more probably she) couldn't get it to show up as a "comment" to the previous blog entry -- "U.S. League Bows ..."

(Though other comments are showing up; I don't know what the issue might be.)

Anyway, I'm posting the Dawn Eos comment here, as an entry. In it, DE notes that Major League Soccer of the United States is not the only league to play over the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Etc. (I should have written "Western Europe" ... and regardless of weather considerations, Sepp Blatter has said several times he believes the U.S. should play a fall-to-spring schedule.)

Here is the material from Dawn Eos.

Some Northern Hemisphere league schedules:

Belarus: April-November
China: March-October
Iceland: May-September
Japan: March-December
Russia: March-November
Norway: March-November
South Korea: March-December
Sweden: April-November

The relevant point: for much of northern North America, winter conditions have quite a bit in common with the countries listed above. February in Toronto: more like Madrid, or Moscow? Chicago: more like Rome, or Oslo?

As for why MLS has played through previous World Cups -- it seems unfair to assume that the league believed its fans were uninterested in the greatest show on earth. Given that:

(a) World Cup matches are played during mornings and afternoons (and sometimes earlier)

(b) the World Cup has traditionally been the only time in four years when the general American sporting public even notices the sport

(c) MLS remains a still-fledgling league, and one for which the cost of losing four summer weekends under any circumstances would be substantial

the league presumably decided that it would be better off continuing play during previous World Cups. Specifically: even with most soccer fans' attention elsewhere, Saturday night games during June and July would still do better than Wednesday games in March or October. And with the influx of casual fans watching World Cup games in the mornings and afternoons, MLS would at least be able to advertise its presence to those fans, and to offer them a live soccer experience at the single moment they're actually interested in the sport (and before they go away for another four years). And most mordantly: MLS might have thought that suspending play during the middle of its season for any reason might lead people to believe that it wouldn't ever come back.

But now: MLS is in far better shape than it was in 1998 or 2002, and increasingly appears to be a permanent part of the sporting landscape. And the general sporting public is more aware of the game than ever before (and is interested in soccer for more than one month every four years) -- for both those reasons, it's presumably less necessary for the league to chase potential fans during World Cups.

But probably most importantly, as more and more MLS teams possess their own venues, those summer weekend dates are no longer quite so critical financially. And that's probably the most important reason why the league will be taking that two-week break next year: they won't lose that much soccer income by doing so. Indeed, what will likely happen is that quite a few teams will dispose of their Open Cup obligations during that break, add a concert or two to their venues' schedules, and quite probably come out ahead in the end. Read more!

U.S. League Bows to South Africa 2010

Major League Soccer is the top level of club competition in the United States, and it has been notable, during the past three World Cups cycles, for continuing to play matches while the World Cup was going on.

That will not be the case during South Africa 2010.

The league recently announced it will schedule no matches during group play of the 2010 World Cup, June 11-25.

And that's not all.

MLS also will not play matches on the same days as the World Cup semifinals (July 6-7) or championship (July 11).

The move demonstrates the globalization of soccer inside the U.S., and should be seen as progress by the soccer world inside the world's biggest economy.

The MLS, founded in 1996, just played right through the World cup in 1998, 2002 and 2006 because, rest assured, it didn't believe its fans were distracted (or even all that interested) in the World Cup.

That has changed. And it is another victory for the world's premier sports event.

FIFA president Sepp Blatter would also like to see MLS shift its schedule from March-October toward something in line with the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, from September until May or June.

MLS is resisting that sea change, still, probably because American football is so popular -- and runs from September to the first weekend of February) that MLS apparently fears being thoroughly eclipsed by it. A not unreasonable concern; in the end, soccer is an also-ran on the U.S. sports scene.

Also, the league in the past shared many of its stadiums with American football clubs, making a fall schedule highly difficult -- though that is changing with the growth in soccer-specific stadiums in the U.S. and Canada.

Anyway, American soccer fans won't have to worry about having to divide their attention, on any given day next June, between their local club team and a suite of World Cup matches.

One more upside, for MLS: Its stars, many of whom will be in South Africa playing for their national clubs (such as Landon Donovan, Cuauhtemoc Blanco, Ricardo Clark, etc.) will miss fewer club games back home in the States.

All this represents progress, and is good. Read more!

Europe Qualifying, and Second-Place Teams

Warning! This could make your head hurt. As it did mine.

We are about to plunge into the way-more-complex-than-it-seems situation surrounding the second-place teams in Europe's nine qualifying groups.

The situation in Europe is this:

• Group winners go straight to South Africa 2010, and we will know all nine of them no later than Oct. 14. (England, Netherlands and Spain already have clinched.)
• Europe, however, has been awarded four more berths, and they will be contested by eight nations that finish second in their groups. Four home-and-home playoffs will be set up, and the four winners go to South Africa. The rules for how that system works are outlined here.
• Notice that eight second-place teams get into the playoffs. Meaning just about everyone who is gazing at second place (yes, we're lookin' at you, France) assumes they will be able to get to South Africa via this back door. But one group runner-up doesn't even make the playoffs.
• Most of the world figures that the left-out runner-up will be Norway, second in Group 9. That's quite likely, actually. And deserved, considering Norway tied Iceland. Twice. But it's not a done deal.

If you want to know why that is -- and if you're reading this blog you're probably a fan of Euro soccer -- well, read on. It might make for some heavy sledding, but someone has to do it, and this blog seems the likeliest place to take on this chore. Uh, responsibility.

If you read the rules for the second-place playoffs, you know this: Norway isn't dead. The Norwegians have 10 points, and are finished with qualifying from the five-team Group 9.

At the moment, at least two teams in all eight of the other groups have more than 10 points. So, it's over?

No. Because of this stipulation: After the second-place teams have been determined within each group, the results from their two matches with the last-place team in their group are expunged, for purposes of the nine-team second-place standings. Points from wins and ties, disappear, as well as all goals scored (or allowed).

Why? Because Norway played in the only five-team group and because the other eight groups had weak (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova) to pathetic teams (Andorra, Malta and, ugh, San Marino) at the bottom of the table. Norway didn't get to play two matches against those stiffs.

Still, even with deductions, I can figure out no scenario in which the second-place team out of four groups (3, 5, 7 and 8) finishes behind Norway in the second-place standings.

So, here are the teams that still could finish second in their groups, yet finish behind Norway in the adjusted standings. The table (below) shows their current real status relative to Norway.

(Key: MP-Matches played; W-Win; D-Draw; L-Loss; GF-Goals for; GA-Goals against; Pts-Points.)

Team----MP--W-D-L--GF-GA-Pts
Bosnia-Hz--6---3--1--2--15--7---10
Norway----8---2--4--2---9--7---10
Ireland----6---2--4--0---6--4---10
Portugal---7---2--4--1---6--5---10
Turkey-----7---2--3--2---9--8----9
Sweden-----6---2--3--1---4--3----9
N. Ireland--7---2--2--3---6--9----8
Hungary----6---2--1--3---5--5----7
Czech Rep.--6---1--3--2---5--6----6
Poland------6---1--2--3---7--11---5

Note that three of those countries have played seven matches; this means that one of those countries' last two qualifiers (Oct. 10 or Oct. 14) is against the last-place team in its group -- which is good for finishing second, but not good for finishing ahead of Norway, because that match won't count in the playoff calculations.

Also note that while some teams still have a shot at finishing second . . . . well, it's a long shot.

So, let's look at the most likely scenarios that create a second-place team that Norway would finish ahead of for the eight-team playoffs. In what I believe is the likelihood of it happening. Ranging from "unlikely" to "just talking mathematically possible, here."

1. Ireland. The Irish are sitting on 10 points. A tie in either of their final two Group 8 matches, both at home, means they finish ahead of Norway. But the first match is against Italy, which must rate as favorites. And if Ireland loses to Italy ... well, Montenegro hasn't won a match in group play, but if the Irish choke and lose again, Norway would finish ahead via goal differential. Not likely, but the most straightforward scenario.

2. Sweden. If the Swedes do no better than one tie in a road game at Denmark and a home match with Albania, the Swedes can finish second in Group 1 with 16 points -- if Hungary and Portugal tie their match, and then lose or tie vs. Denmark and Malta, respectively. That would leave Hungary and Portugal at 14 or 15 points. Sweden's second-place points total would be nine points, to Norway's 10. Far-fetched, but it doesn't involve goal-differential tweaking or San Marino getting a result. (See below.)

3. Hungary. The Hungarians can finish second in Group 1 by narrowly beating Portugal and losing at Denmark while Sweden loses to Denmark and Albania -- and Portugal defeats Malta by one goal less than Hungary beat Portugal, so that Hungary wins the goal-differential (currently one goal in Portugal's favor). Then Norway and Hungary are each at 10 points in the second-place standings, and Norway goes ahead on its plus-2 goal-differential.

4. Portugal. Can finish No. 2 in Group 1 by losing at home to Hungary by the same number of goals it wins by at Malta. Combined with Hungary losing heavily at Denmark as well as Sweden losing at Denmark and at home to Albania. Portugal and Hungary would have 16 points and Sweden 15, and Portugal would be second on goal-differential. However, Portugal would have 10 points in the second-place standings, and if it had a plus-1 goal differential, Norway goes ahead and Portugal stays home.

5. Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Bosnians lose twice in Group 5, at Estonia and home to Spain, but they still finish second if Turkey suffers even a tie versus Belgium or Armenia. If the Bosnians' aggregate in those games against Estonia and Spain is at least minus-7, they lose to Norway via goal differential. No, not at all likely. Bosnia isn't going to give up seven goals in two matches. Not even with Spain the opponent in one of them.

6. Turkey. The Turks finish second in Group 5 by tying at Belgium and winning at home over last-place Armenia while Bosnia-Herzegovina loses at Estonia and home to Spain -- and those losses are by an aggregate of eight goals or more. In that case, Turkey finishes second on goal-differential (plus 1 to Bosnia's 0), then loses to Norway on goal-differential (plus 2 to plus 1). No, not likely, either; Bosnia isn't going to give up eight goals in two matches.

7. Czech Republic. The Czechs finish second in Group 3 by defeating Poland (by no more than two goals) at home and tying Northern Ireland at home. That gives the Czechs 16 points, one more than the Ulstermen. But they/Norway would need help. Slovenia would need to lose at Slovakia and tie (or lose) at San Marino. That would leave Slovenia at 15 or 14 points. And back to the Czechs; they would have 10 points in the second-place standings, and would lose to Norway via goal differential. How likely? Massively unlikely, considering this scenario includes San Marino getting a result against visiting Slovenia when San Marino has been outscored 44-1 in nine defeats -- though it has played a pair of home matches that it lost by only two goals.

8. Northern Ireland. The Ulstermen tie the Czechs to get to 15 points in Group 3, and the Slovenes lose twice (at Slovakia, at San Marino!), the Czechs lose to Poland and the Poles lose at home to Slovakia. Then Northern Ireland is second, but has only nine points in the second-place table, to Norway's 10. How likely? Beyond "massively unlikely" because the scenario requires Slovenia to lose at San Marino.

9. Poland. The Poles defeat the Czechs by two or three goals on the road in Group 3 and tie Slovakia at home. That's 15 points. Meanwhile, Slovenia loses at Slovakia and San Marino, and the Czechs win at home over Northern Ireland. The Czechs also have 15 points, but if their loss to Poland was heavy enough and their victory over Northern Ireland slight enough, Poland could finish ahead via goal differential. The Czechs currently lead them, 9-8. However, Poland would have only nine points in the second-place standings, to Norway's 10. I'm calling this the longest shot of all, because not only does it involve San Marino beating Slovenia, it calls for the Poles to suddenly start playing well.

Wasn't that edifying? Only took me, like, three hours. Three hours of my life I'll never get back.

The point, to reinforce, is that Norway isn't dead, despite how it looks in the standings. But the most likely train of events, yes, has Norway left out of the second-place playoffs. Read more!

So, What Is China's Excuse?

Wow. Now we have opened up a can of worms. Actually, make that a barrel of worms. A silo of worms.

China is awful in soccer. The casual soccer fan knows that.

But most of us don't know how much China cares that it is awful, how keenly aware it is of that awful-ness, and how embarrassed, ashamed, mortified (we could keep going, but that's enough for now) the nation feels about it.

This is the second of what is going to be a short series on why some of the planet's most populous nations are shrimps in the zoology of global soccer. We looked at India a few days ago.

And now China.

Again, wow. We get a sense that only a fraction of China's soccer-related angst has been translated into English ... and that what we hear or see on the topic, in the West, barely begins to plumb the depths of the national anxiety and subsequent debate.

How deep are those depths? Well, one Chinese scholar has suggested that the national team's incompetence could lead to political upheaval. He was not joking.

First, let's quantify how bad China is.

1. China is the world's most populous nation, with some 1.3 billion people, enjoys a booming economy and it is genuinely sports-mad, having reveled in winning the most gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Yet it is ranked 107th in the world in soccer.

Behind desperately poor African countries such as Guinea (55), Congo (79) and Mozambique (84); behind countries with microscopic populations, like Latvia (55), Bahrain (64) and Iceland (96); behind countries that aren't really countries, such as Scotland (30), Northern Ireland (31) and Wales (67); behind countries that were invented just in the past few years, such as Macedonia (56), Moldova (88) and Montenegro (89); behind countries wracked by war and/or political unrest, such as Iran (60), Sudan (96) and Iraq (98).

2. China has qualified for the World Cup finals only once, in 2002. It went out without scoring a goal.

3. China was eliminated in the second round of Asia qualifying for the 2010 World Cup ... by Iraq. War-torn, sectionally fragmented Iraq.

4. China lost all three matches in the 2008 Olympics, failing to salvage even a tie when playing on its home soil.

That shoddy Olympics performance was documented in this New York Times story, which notes that "soccer may be the sport the Chinese care about above all else, but it is also the one that most frustrates and disappoints them," adding that "the men's national and Olympic teams are the subject of much scorn, shame and hand-wringing."

The most interesting take on China and its soccer team came in a Washington Post op-ed piece written by a Chinese national who teaches history at Kalamazoo College in the U.S. state of Michigan.

In the piece, written before the 2008 Olympics, Xu Guoqi suggests up to 700 million Chinese watched the 2006 World Cup, which China failed to qualify for. "They weren't happy," Xi wrote.

Of the 2010 qualifying ouster at the hands of Iraq (which occurred he 2008), he writes, "Such losses have not only plunged many Chinese into the sort of depression that only a Chicago Cubs fan could understand. They have also prompted doubts about Chinese manhood, undermined the country's vaunted can-do spirit and sparked agonized questions about our politics, culture and society -- even about what it means to be Chinese. For the regime in Beijing, success at the Olympics may demonstrate China's superiority, but for the country's long-suffering soccer fans, the only real yardstick of greatness is a victory in the World Cup."

He also touched on numerous suggested explanations of China's soccer incompetence. For example ...

--Only a tiny fraction of China's enormous population plays sports, including soccer.

--China attempts to bring to the soccer field the same training techniques it employs for individual sports, at which it is so successful. Mind-numbing repetition and sheer exertion clearly can mean victory in what are sometimes referred to as the "robotic" sports -- such as diving and gymnastics. But that approach doesn't translate into success in a free-flowing game like soccer.

--A creaky, top-down system that starts with the "hidebound" Chinese communist party.

--Endemic corruption in Chinese soccer, from club to national team.

--Modern Chinese society's rejection of "communal values" in what has turned into a dog-eat-dog system. "These days everybody wants to be the boss, and nobody wants to be the goalie," Xu writes.

The reason why soccer failures generate so much anxiety in China, the writer suggests, is that China expects to be the best at everything ... and there is no easy way to explain away these shocking failures on the pitch. And it comes just as regional rivals Japan and South Korea have qualified, again, for the World Cup ... and even xenophobic, paranoid North Korea has clinched a berth at South Africa 2010.

Writes Xu: "The World Cup strikes Chinese as the most meritocratic, the most (gasp!) democratic, of competitions. Every nation, rich or poor, strong or small, has a real shot at winning. No country or regime, regardless of its wealth or power, can manufacture a victory the way that, say, East Germany used to during those dreary Cold War-era Olympic Games. On the soccer field, China is forced to test itself against the family of nations. It's social Darwinism as sport. No wonder millions of Chinese fans link soccer to their national sense of honor."

So, what is China's excuse for its soccer incompetence?

Let's boil it down as best we can. A country that loves sports but doesn't really play them; a heavily individualistic population that has trouble with the basic concepts of team sports; a badly run and probably corrupt federation; a government not open to transparency or to taking responsibility for failure.

At any rate, China must be considered the biggest underachiever in the history of global soccer. Because, unlike India, which doesn't really care about soccer ... China cares, and quite deeply. But still can't figure out how to beat Iraq. Read more!

Yes, Argentina: You Can Change a Coach

As the days tick down to the two final qualifying dates for most nations, Oct. 10 and 14, Argentina still has Diego Maradona as its coach. Despite four defeats in Argentina's last five qualifiers. Despite Maradona spending this week in a "spa" in northern Italy, allegedly to lose weight.

But it's not too late to change.

Or, at least, that's the way another struggling World Cup contender -- Costa Rica -- is approaching things.

After three consecutive defeats by an aggregate score of 8-0, the Ticos fired Rodrigo Kenton and have hired Rene Samoes, a Brazilian who took Jamaica to the 1998 World Cup.

Samoes has three weeks to change the lineup (or chemistry or mind-set) of the Costa Rican team. The Ticos were in fine shape, halfway through the Concacaf qualifying schedule, leading the hexagonal with 12 points.

Then came defeats at Honduras (4-0), home to Mexico (3-0) and at El Salvador (1-0). Kenton was shown the door on Monday.

Costa Rica sits fourth in the Concacaf standings but stills controls its destiny; victories at home against Trinidad & Tobago and at the United States would give it 18 points and guarantee it a top-three finish -- and an automatic berth at South Africa 2010.

Argentina doesn't quite control its fate for one of the four automatic berths set aside for South America. Even with victories over Peru and at Uruguay, it might not catch fourth-place Ecuador -- though it probably would.

However, two victories would assure it of a fifth-place finish, and one more shot at getting to South Africa, in a home-and-home playoff vs. the No. 4 team in Concacaf. Which, at the moment, is Costa Rica. Home of a pro-active federation. As opposed to Argentina, which seems confused and passive as its former national superstar leads it into the wilderness.

If it comes to a playoff with Costa Rica, Argentina might wish it had a real coach -- and not a confused figurehead with a famous name -- with a berth in South Africa on the line.
Read more!

So, What Is India's Excuse?

This is the flip side of the previous post, about countries with tiny populations getting to the World Cup.

Let's spend a bit of time, in the next few posts, contemplating why several countries with enormous populations not only won't be making the World Cup, they didn't get close.

Take India. Please.

A country with 1.17 billion people went out in the first round of Asian qualifying for South Africa 2010. India lost a home-and-home series with Lebanon by an aggregate of 6-3. That would be the same Lebanon that has been racked, off and on, by internal violence the past few years. Yet India was swamped by the Lebanese, and it wasn't an upset. Lebanon was seeded 13 from among 43 Asian nations; India was seeded No. 28. Just behind the Maldives, just ahead of Singapore.

How it that possible? The subject is a big one, and we won't get to the bottom of it here, but we can skim over the salient points.

--Soccer is not the national game. That would be cricket, a sport at which India is among the world's elite. Field hockey, despite a decline in interest, probably ranks ahead of soccer, too. Two authors look at the phenomenon in a book entitled "Goalless: The Story of a Unique Footballing Nation" ... and here is a link to a review of that book.

--A perception that Indians are not interested in a sport in which they are awful. India is 149th in the world in the most recent FIFA rankings.

--Television. In this blog post, a writer from India suggests that successes in cricket and failures in soccer occurred at a critical point in India's television history, in the early 1980s, and that the subsequent TV-generated reinforcement boosted cricket and disappointment crippled soccer.

--A bad and ineffectual domestic soccer league. The National Football League (the other NFL, that is) features teams that play to small crowds and uses players who are, as one local critic put it, "third-tier Nigerians and fourth-tier Brazilians." The local league, then, does little or nothing to foster enthusiasm for the game.

--A thoroughly inept national soccer federation. The results would seem to be enough to bear out this contention, but in this rather unwieldy essay, the author seems to suggest India, as a country, does a poor job of organizing sports of any sort. (Having seen Indian track athletes finish far behind in preliminary heats at the Olympics, I can vouch for Indian failures in the Olympic movement, at the least.)

Twenty or 30 years ago, it was possible to argue that India's ineptitude on the athletic field was a function of its grinding poverty. But now, with estimates that as many as 300 million Indians recently have climbed into the middle class, that "too poor to play" analysis seems inoperable.

For whatever reason, or reasons, India is not producing elite players. Check this wikipedia entry on Baichung Bhutia, considered the best Indian soccer player of the past generation. Bhutia, however, has played very little outside India, and when he went to England to try his luck with third-tier club Bury ... he didn't exactly shine, scoring three goals in three seasons. Then went back to India.

What makes India and soccer a more perplexing issue are claims that India actually was semi-competent in the sport a half-century ago. Its "golden age" typically is described as having occurred in the 1950s and 1960s. That would include gold medals in soccer at the Asian Games of 1951 and 1962, and a runner-up finish (to Israel) in the Asian Football Confederation championship of 1964.

India has never done anything to qualify for a World Cup, though it was invited to the 1950 World Cup when its regional opponents decided not to field teams. However, FIFA required Indian players to wear shoes, and India pulled out of the 1950 World Cup because, apparently, several of its players insisted on playing barefoot.

Thus, India is perhaps the only country in soccer history to lose interest in the sport. Several countries came late to the sport -- the United States and Japan among the most prominent -- but India stands almost alone among countries that were at least passably competent once upon a time ... and now are not.

And no one seems to care. Which probably is the bottom line of the entire discussion.
Read more!

In Praise of the Little Countries

Generally speaking, the bigger your population, the bigger the pool of world-class athletes, the better your chances of qualifying for the World Cup finals.

Makes sense, yes?

But raw population is by no means an indicator of world-level soccer success. If it were, China would have made more than one World Cup. India would have made one. Any one.

Many countries with a tiny fraction of China's population -- or the United States or Indonesia, for that matter -- are prime contenders to be in South Africa next June.

Using FIFA qualifying standings and wikipedia world population statistics, let's determine at the 10 smallest countries -- from lightly populated to least-populated -- who have clinched a berth at South Africa 2010 or remain solidly in contention to do so.

The little contenders, with population and (in parantheses) their global population rank:

10. Paraguay, 6,350,000 (103). We don't need to talk about Paraguay's chances, because Paraguay is one of only 11 countries already qualified for South Africa 2010. And, of course, the smallest in population in the tournament. So far.

9. Slovakia, 5,413,000 (111). What was once the lower half of Czechslovakia is now holding the upper hand in Europe's Group 3. All Slovakia needs is a tie at home, Oct. 10, vs. Slovenia, to clinch first place and punch its ticket to South Africa -- and gain its first World Cup finals as an indepedent country.

8. Costa Rica, 4,435,000 (118). Two weeks ago, the Ticos looked likely to secure one of the three guaranteed World Cup berths out of Concacaf, but a pair of defeats dropped them to fourth in the regional standings. That's disturbing in the little Central American country, considering that the Ticos were in first place before Sept. 5. But even a fourth-place finish is enough to keep them alive for a place in South Africa -- via a home-and-home playoff with South America's No. 5 team. Note: Costa Rica has no military, perhaps freeing up more guys to play soccer.

7. Croatia, 4,435,000 (119). The semifinalist from France 1998 is second in Europe Group 6, and can clinch second place -- and almost a certain slot in the playoffs for Europe's final four berths at South Africa -- with a victory at Kazakhstan on Oct. 14.

6. Ireland, 4,422,000 (120). The Emerald Isle (well, minus Northern Ireland, which competes on its own) is a World Cup overachiever, having made three of the past five finals. Ireland can clinch second place in Europe Group 8 with a victory at home vs. Italy (unlikely) on Oct. 10, or vs. Montenegro (quite likely) on Oct. 14. FYI: Ireland's current population is roughly equal to the number of immigrants it has sent to the United States, alone.

5. Uruguay, 3,361,000 (132). Historically, the most successful of the Little People, with two World Cup championships (1930, 1950) on its resume -- despite having less than 10 percent of the population of the U.S. state of California. Uruguay is one point behind Argentina for fifth place in the South America standings, which would yield a playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf, and two points behind Ecuador for fourth place and a guaranteed slot at South Africa. Uruguay controls its destiny; it plays at Ecuador on Oct. 10 and is home to Argentina on Oct. 14.

4. Latvia, 2,257,000 (141). The smallest of the Baltic countries, both in size and population, is very much alive in Europe Group 2, tied with Greece for second place. The Letts would lead the group had they been able to hold either of two leads in a home match against Switzerland on Sept. 9. It finished 2-2. Latvia needs a point from a road match at Greece on Oct. 10 to finish second and get in the Europe second-place playoffs.

3. Slovenia, 2,045,000 (145). The smallest splinter to emerge from the breakup of the former Yugoslavia is well-positioned to finish at least second in Europe Group 3. The Slovenes could even win the group with a victory at Slovakia, and a victory at San Marino (as close to a certainty as there is in FIFA) together with a loss by the Slovaks at Poland. At the least, the three points from the San Marino match should get Slovenia second place and probably a berth in the four home-and-home pairings to determine the final four European teams that go to South Africa.

2. Gabon, 1,475,000 (149). A small West African country best known for lush scenery and exotic wild life, until this qualifying cycle. Two weeks ago, Gabon looked in good shape to make the Word Cup, but successive losses to Cameroon (pop. 19.5 million) have damaged Gabon's hopes of winning Africa Group A (and qualifying). It remains doable, but it's not the way to bet.

1. Bahrain, 791,000 (159). Bahrain is an oil-rich island in The Gulf, just offshore from the Arabian Peninsula, with a population about 2 percent as large as the city of Tokyo. And Bahrain is 180 minutes away from being the smallest country -- in area as well as population -- to qualify for a World Cup finals. Bahrain has been punching above its weight all along, finishing fifth in Asia qualifying. Now it has a home-and-home with New Zealand, Oceania champion, to see who goes to South Africa 2010, and rates as a slight favorite. If you root for the littlest guy, Bahrain is your ultimate side. Read more!

Maradona in Clinic in Italy to 'Lose Weight'

This isn't good for Argentina, no matter how it turns out. You don't want your national coach locked away in a "spa" for several days (or weeks?) less than a month ahead of two final and crucial World Cup qualifiers. No matter what it is he's trying to overcome -- weight gain, bad nerves ... drugs.

But there goes Diego Maradona, arguably the most inept coach in World Cup qualifying, considering Argentina's results under his stewardship and the talent available.

Reuters is reporting that Maradona is in a facility ("clinic" is so judgmental, don't you think?) in Northern Italy ... to lose five kilos -- or about 11 pounds.

Or is that monkey on his back something more sinister than an excess of avoirdupois?

Maradona has a history of drug abuse. It seems as if it almost killed him, a time or two. And we don't have to have a Ph.D in psychology to wonder if the enormous pressures that must be coming down on him, in Argentina, as the national team teeters on the brink of missing South Africa 2010 ... well, you wonder if that pressure might prompt him to find some consolation in chemicals he has abused in the past.

Apparently, we're not the only ones wondering about that.

So, today, we have a story that quotes his doctor as saying Maradona has not relapsed into drugs. Which we believe ... almost not at all.

Doesn't it seem as if dropping those 10-11 pounds could wait till after the Oct. 10 qualifier with Peru and the Oct. 14 match at Uruguay to go to a Fat Farm? Absolutely. And you don't need to go to northern Italy to escape Argentine fans and media. Has to be someplace right there in the country where a guy can sit on a beach (it's still summer, down there), turn off the cell phone, avoid newspapers and TV, instruct your security team to keep people away ... and chill out.

The upshot of this?

Diego must go. If he is at a point where he needs professional help right this minute ... it's time for Argentina to go to Plan B for these final two matches. Get a new coach. Admit Maradona was a mistake. And it's proving harmful both to him and Argentinian football.

It's late. But it's not too late.

Veteran coach Carlos Bilardo, who led Argentina from 1983 through the 1990 World Cup, already is with the team in a lesser capacity. His team won the 1986 World Cup and was runner-up in 1990. He could take over tomorrow. Bora Milutinovic is a phone call away. Leo Beenhaaker is out of work. Etc.

Point is, Argentina presumably can find a couple of dozen (make that a couple of hundred) coaches better suited than Diego Maradona to coaching Argentina in these last two qualifiers. Let Maradona extend his stay in northern Italy for as long as he wants. To lose some weight ... or beat some jones.

It will be better for everyone connected to Argentine soccer. Read more!

Hot Air: Talking Up England

I don't live in England, nor do I see English newspapers regularly, but there must be something really interesting, on a sociological level, going on there.

Despite mountains of evidence that indicate England is, at best, a mid-level power in international soccer, England and the English are always eager to proclaim that "this time it's different" and that the upcoming competition is going to be the one where they cover themselves in glory. Instead of excuses.

England qualified for South Africa 2010 a week ago, and already the stories are coming through about how England is a contender, or a favorite or the favorite to win the thing.

To wit:

Here is a Reuters story on Spanish national Xabi Hernandez allegedly touting the English as favorites to win the 2010 World Cup. At least, that's how it's being spun in the Johannesburg Sunday Times and by Reuters -- originally an English company and still very England-centric.

In fact, Xabi's brief remarks (and remarks always seem to be brief, in British journalism) are mostly about how he thinks Spain has a good shot at winning. Oh, and the English are pretty good and he respects the team's individual (my emphasis) quality of English players. As opposed to the collective?

And he likes Ivory Coast, too, and if Ivory Coast wins the World Cup, I'll sell my piano keys.

Then there is this story, from AFP (Agence France-Presse) featuring England coach Fabio Capella, who says his goal for his team is the championship match. At the least. He's not saying England will win it, but anything short of the final ... not acceptable.

What is the source of all this optimism? Apparently a nice run through Europe qualifying Group 6, which includes only one other serious soccer nation, Croatia. Unless you count Ukraine, and I don't. England is 8-0 so far. Grand. Andorra and Kazakhstan and Belarus couldn't qualify out of Concacaf, but those three represent five of England's eight victories.

Let's not forget England's international soccer history -- which English fans are keen to do. "It's about the past, it means nothing to this team, blah, blah, blah ..." but something basic and systemic is going on when the nation with the world's elite professional league has performed so abysmally on the big stages.

--England invented the game, and has the EPL, but it has won the World Cup once. O-n-c-e. In 1966. When the World Cup was in England. Since then, England has reached the semifinals of the World Cup only once, and didn't qualify at all three times. In the six other World Cup, England got to the quarterfinals four times ... and then crashed out. We're not talking about near misses here, that is.

--England never has won the Euro Cup. It didn't attempt to qualify in 1960, and since then it has two semifinals apperances, the most recent being in 1996 -- when it lost in the semis in England.

The English didn't even qualify for the 2008 edition of the event. And it went out of the most recent World Cup in the quarters. So, now, a team with lots and lots of the same guys who were part of those teams ... is going to win in South Africa?

Remember, no European team ever has won a World Cup outside of Europe. And England has won only once, and that was when the final was played in London.

We'll get excited about the English -- and start throwing around terms like "favorites" -- when they actually do something again. For now, England is mostly hype and hot air. And the real favorites are the usual suspects who have shown the guile and talent to win at the international level -- Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina (if it gets a real coach), and maybe Spain and the Netherlands.

Anyway, I find fascinating the self-delusion that English soccer fans apparently embrace. How many times do The Three Lions have to fall short before a sense that "maybe we're not really good at this" penetrates into the collective? However many times, we're not there yet, apparently.
Read more!

Predicting the Legacy of 2010

The Local Organizing Committee of the 2010 World Cup put on a panel discussion today in Soweto, near Johannesburg, to talk about what the event will leave behind for South Africa.

Here is the Johannesburg Sunday Times' version of the story.

Economic benefits seemed to be talked about a lot. From how many millions an estimated 400,000 tourists will spend ... to the general infusion of capital into the country. How many soccer fields have been built or might be, seems to have struck the reporter as significant.

I believe even bigger issues, more amorphous but more lasting and potentially more world-changing, are at stake.

To wit: Can Africa, in general, and South Africa in specific, successfully stage the world's greatest sports event?

Some would say South Africa already has proved, during this or that rugby or cricket event, that it can stage a big event.

But any sports event that isn't the Summer Olympics is dwarfed by the World Cup. This is the acid test for South Africa.

And SA 2010 this will determine, in the eyes of billions of non-Africans, whether the host country and continent are up to it -- in terms of organization, housing, transport and safety.

No one who puts on a World Cup or a Summer Games should underestimate what sort of impact the event has, globally. Not when hundreds of millions of people are following any given match, and nearly every country in the world is aware of the event.

Consider the 2008 Beijing Olympics. If there was any doubt at all, 14 months ago, that modern China was capable of prodigies of organization, from leading-edge venues to the movement of masses of visitors, the Beijing Olympics put them to rest.

Conversely, the 1996 Atlanta Olympics still carry the whiff of failure about them, because of transportation problems over the first few days and because of a bombing at a popular downtown park in the middle of the event.

This World Cup, if anything, is even more significant for the organizers because it is the first truly global event to go to Africa.

It is not a stretch to suggest that Africa has been viewed by most of the world as a sort of laggard across the board -- socially, politically, economically. We can debate the "whys?" and whether they are fair or not ... but the basic conception of Africa as home to various degrees of Third World chaos seems ingrained in international thinking.

Changing that perception is within the reach of the 2010 World Cup. If the event unfolds with precision, if visitors are able to move smoothly between cities and venues and their personal security is maintained, if South African appears to be home to competent and friendly people ... how the planet views the country and even the continent could be changed in the span of one month next summer -- quickly and probably permanently.

The flip side?

Ragged organization, stadiums that don't work, transportation that seizes up, tourists getting mugged ... that sort of World Cup could reinforce negative stereotypes already held about Africa, and give them fresh momentum and the word-of-mouth validation of tens of thousands of foreign witnesses and thousands of members of the print and electronic media.

Global perceptions. That is what is at stake, at South Africa 2010. A concept far bigger than counting up tickets sold and soccer fields built and trinkets peddled.

A World Cup leaves a legacy. Positive, negative or something in-between. The event is too enormous and too widely viewed for it to be forgotten in one year. Or 20. Read more!

World Cup? What World Cup?

Here we are, less than nine months from kickoff in South Africa of the world's biggest sports event, and what are the host country's newspapers preoccupied with?

The gender issues surrounding an 800-meter runner.

Maybe the World Cup isn't as big as we think it is.

The Web site at every significant South African newspaper I could find ... has the travails of Caster Semenya as its lead sports story. Often, it is the lead story. Of any sort. Not just in sports.

Semenya was hailed as a national hero when she won the women's 800-meter run in world-record time at the track and field World Championships in Berlin last month.

Then came revelations from the international track and field federation (IAAF) that it would investigate claims that Semenya is not a woman.

South Africa went ... oh, nuts. One minister accused the IAAF of racism in focusing on an African athlete.

The story was propelled forward sharply when an Australian newspaper reported that scans showed that Semenya has no ovaries or uterus but does have "internal testes."

South Africa's sports minister promised to go to "war" in defense of Semenya, according to the Johannesburg Sunday Times. Which is fairly intense language.

Also, the president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, came to the defense of Semenya, saying the media had invaded Semenya's privacy.

And now the South Africa media reports that Semenya "has dropped out of sight" as the story keeps churning along.

The World Cup? You might think South African newspapers and media would find interest in the four teams that qualified for 2010 over the past week, or the trouble that Argentina and Portugal find themselves in ... but, no.

It's all Caster Semenya, all the time. And even the World Cup is being pushed into the background until the issue is resolved -- if it ever is.
Read more!

England: 'Wags' to Have Limited Access

Ah, one of the great issues of our time, and now England coach Fabio Capello has spoken to it.

"Wags" will have very limited access to England's players during the 2010 World Cup.

We had been worried about that. Whatever it is.

What are "Wags"? To read this story you would think the entire English-speaking world already knows. But we had to look it up in the "urban dictionary."

And what does it mean?

According to the definition, Wags are "Wives and Girlfriends" of players, a term coined by the English media during the 2006 World Cup. And Wags apparently got lots and lots of attention during Germany 2006, perhaps to the detriment of England's team. But to the merriment of England's intrusive tabloid newspapers.

Now that England has qualified, Capello says things will be different, when it comes to Wags and their English swain, at South Africa next year.

Capello says Wags will have access to players only on the day after a match. The end.

He also seems to suggest wives and girlfriends should just stay home, given that the lads won't be made available, aside from the days after -- which could be as few as three days over the course of, say, three weeks, if the English team goes to South Africa 10-14 days early -- and then goes out in the first round.

We're relieved this has been decided. Though we wonder what the English tabloids will do to fill their news columns, if the Wags stay home. Read more!

Argentina: Things Not as Bleak as They Seem

There is consternation around the globe concerning Argentina, and the idea that a nation with so much soccer talent -- Messi, Tevez, Aguero, Datolo, Mascherano, Zanetti, Heinze, etc. -- and two World Cup championships on its resume might miss South Africa 2010.

We can see how that fear might creep into the conversation. Argentina looks lost on the pitch, has lost four of its last five matches in qualifying, and has fallen to fifth place in the South America standings.

Only the top four South America finishers are guaranteed berths to 2010, and Brazil and Paraguay already have locked up two of those four, with Chile one victory away from getting the third.

But things aren't quite as dire for Argentina as it might seem, and here's why:

--The fifth team out of South America goes into a home-and-home playoff with the fourth-place team out of Concacaf, the North America group. A couple of weeks ago, No. 4 from the northern half of the Western Hemisphere looked as if it might be a pretty decent team. Maybe even Mexico. But Costa Rica currently is fourth after a fairly shocking three-match losing streak in which it has been outscored 8-0, losing 4-0 at Nicaragua, 3-0 home to Mexico and 1-0 at El Salvador. The Ticos, then, are a team that suddenly seem eminently beatable.

--Argentina's next match is at home, where it rarely loses, and is against regional bottom-feeder Peru. Even with a trained chimp as manager -- and that pretty much sums up Diego Maradona's qualifications as coach -- Argentina ought to be able to win that one. That's three points.

--The nation ahead of Argentina in the standings, in the No. 4 spot, is Ecuador, which is solid but not monolithic. Ecuador finishes with a home match against Uruguay (which is one point behind Argentina), and at Chile -- which may need the victory to clinch qualification. That is, Ecuador is no lock to take three points out of its final two matches, especially when we consider that even playing at home in Quito, altitude 9,000 feet (2,800 meters) Ecuador has won only half of its eight matches, with three ties and a defeat. To Venezuela. Thus, a victory at Peru might be enough to get Argentina up to a fourth-place finish.

--The nation behind Argentina is Uruguay, and Uruguay goes to Ecuador on Oct. 10 and then finishes at home against Argentina. The way to bet here is that 1) Argentina defeats Peru at home, 2) Uruguay loses at Ecuador and 3) Argentina goes to Uruguay needing only a tie to finish ahead of Uruguay -- in fifth place, and a home-and-home with fading Costa Rica.

--Venezuela, formerly known as a baseball country, also is only one point behind Argentina but might be a bigger danger, despite a tougher final two matches. It is home against Paraguay and at Brazil, and if those two show up interested in a result (both already are in), Venezuela will be hard pressed to get more than one point. Brazil, basically, can beat anyone anywhere, even if it doesn't play its A team -- as in its 4-2 thrashing of Chile on Wednesday, when fourth-choice striker Nilmar scored three goals.

--Colombia is still in the picture, too, with 20 points, two behind Argentina. But Colombia finishes at home with Chile -- which will be looking to clinch a qualifying spot -- and at Paraguay. Colombia also has struggled to score, with only 10 goals in 16 matches, and you can't win without scoring at least one.

To sum up ... if Argentina can defeat Peru, while playing at home, it is very likely to get to South Africa 2010. Even with Diego Maradona still coaching. (If he is replaced, things have to get easier, right?)

Assuming a victory over Peru ... even if the Argentines lose to Uruguay, they will be passed only if Uruguay has already gotten a result out of Ecuador ... or if Venezuela or Colombia win both of their last two matches.

Yes, certainly. Any one of those scenarios could happen. The point being, it's not likely. Then fifth-place Argentina goes home and home with Costa Rica and is a heavy favorite to win, even if Costa Rica does (when it is feeling giddy) like to consider itself the Brazil of Central America.

Cry for Argentina only if it somehow loses to Peru, at home. If that happens ... well, it doesn't really deserve to be in the World Cup this time around. Lionel Messi or not. Read more!

The Road to 2010: Coaches in Trouble

It is getting late, out there in the world of qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. No more than two matches left for this main round of qualifying.

And that always makes for a rash of a certain type of story:

The national team coach who has been fired ... or is about to be fired ... or who seemingly every working journalist in his country is campaigning to have fired.

Let's examine at least one of each of those three varieties.

Variety No. 1: Leo Beenhakker, the Dutch coach of Poland's national side. Beenhakker was shown the door after Poland went down 3-0 at Slovenia and was eliminated from contention for South Africa 2010. This is the same Beenhakker who was so dumb two years ago that he got Poland into the Euro Cup for the first time in national history and was, shortly thereafter, awarded the Order of Polonia medal by the government. But that was before the Slovenia match and, after all, coaches are hired to be fired. Especially foreign coaches.

Variety No. 2: Diego Maradona, the Argentine coach of Argentina's national side. What a horrible idea this was, turning over a national treasure to a guy who couldn't make sense of his own personal life. Argentina has lost four of five qualifying matches since he took over and has fallen to fifth in the South America standings -- putting it at risk of not even qualifying for South Africa. With a month before Argentina's final two qualifying matches, it seems like a perfect moment to invite Diego to go back to Cuba and hang out with his pal Fidel and find a real coach. Such as Carlos Bilardo, who already is with the team in an advisory capacity -- though Maradona takes no advice, it would seem. Rob Hughes, the respected soccer columnist for the International Herald Tribune, writes that "All Argentina has are players who look great -- on somebody else’s teams." Maradona says he isn't backing down, but a former teammate, Osvaldo Ardiles, said on Sky TV that “It’s hopeless. We are not a team, we are a collection of individuals — and even the individuals are not showing up.” ... We hear that Leo Beenhakker is available, too. Anyway, there is a sense that Argentina still can salvage this if it gets a competent manager, and that its federation finally may realize that.

Variety No. 3. Raymond Domenech, the French coach of France, who got to the World Cup finals in 2006 -- apparently through some kind of miracle, according to French journalists, who pillory him at every turn now. The French federation seems determined to stick with Domenech, even after a pair of draws over the past week all but doomed France to second place in its group, hoping it can win one of the home-and-home playoffs that determine the final four European qualifiers. So it is up to the members of the Fourth Estate to try to goad France into finding a replacement for Domenech, who would have been fired long ago if it were up L'Equipe.

Coaching is a risky business, of course. But it seems particularly volatile in world soccer, where a couple of bad results can put you in the bread line. I hope and assume most of these guys get their money up front. Read more!

The Road to 2010: 9/9/09 Wrap-up

Well, that was a pretty intense five days: 75 qualifying matches, including 35 today, Sept. 9, 2009. Which is 9/9/9, if you think of it ... or 6\6\6 upside down. I watched games pretty much all day. It was like American college basketball's first couple of days of playoffs competition. But instead of March Madness it was September ... Insanity.

England, Spain and Paraguay clinched berths in South Africa 2010, taking to 10 the number of nations that have qualified. (South Africa, as host, is already in.) Several other countries moved within a whisker of winning a ticket. Others fell flat. A few moved back into contention.

Some of the highlights:

--Bahrain 2 at Saudi Arabia 2. The wildest and arguably most-meaningful match of the day. This was the second half of a home-and-home playoff to determine the No. 5 team out of Asia -- which gets to play Oceania champion New Zealand in a home-and-home to determine a World Cup berth. The Saudis and Bahrainis played to a scoreless draw in Manama on Saturday, and it was 1-1 after 90 minutes in Riyadh early Thursday morning. (The match kicked off at 10:15 p.m. Wednesday, Riyadh time.) Saudi Arabia scored in the first minute of extra time, thrilling the 70,000 at King Fahd Stadium ... but then Bahrain sub Ismail Abdullatif scored in the fourth minute of extra time to make it 2-2 -- and send Bahrain forward by virtue of the "away goals" statistic. The Saudis' streak of four consecutive World Cup finals appearances is over, and Bahrain is two matches away from becoming the smallest nation, by population (about 700,000) to make the finals. Trinidad & Tobago (1.3 million) is the smallest finals qualifier to date.

--Croatia 1 at England 5. No surprise here. England is 8-0 in Europe's Group 6, and an early penalty set the stage for a rout. Croatia still probably will make the second-place playoffs for the final four European berths.

--Estonia 0 at Spain 3: Cesc Fabregas scored early, and the Spaniards got two late goals to clinch Group 5, Brazil may be ranked No. 1 in the world, but Spain has won 18 of 19 matches (losing only to the U.S. in the Confederations Cup in June), and has only that one loss in its last 39 matches, going back to November of 2006.

--Argentina 0 at Paraguay 1. Big news for both sides. Paraguay clinched one of the four guaranteed berths out of South America ... and Argentina fell into fifth place in the regional standings, putting the two-time world champions at risk of not qualifying for 2010. How much more time Diego Maradona gets as coach of Argentina is open to speculation.

--Switzerland 2 at Latvia 2. The Balts missed a chance to forge a tie atop Europe's Group 2 when Swiss sub Ered Derdiyok scored in the 80th minute. Latvia and Greece play for sole possesion of second place, in Greece, on Oct. 10. Switzerland is the clear favorite to win the group because it leads by three points and ends at tiny Luxembourg and is home to out-of-it Israel.

--Portugal 1 at Hungary 0. Cristiano Ronaldo's team isn't dead yet! The Portuguese moved up to third in the Group 1 standings and could get one of the second-place playoffs berths by winning its last two while Sweden loses once -- perhaps at group leader Denmark on Oct. 10.

--Russia 3 at Wales 1. The Russians scored twice in the final 20 minutes to break a tie and set up a monumental clash with Group 4 leader Germany on Oct. 10.

--Finland 1 at Leichtenstein 1. Not important, just embarrassing, for Finland.

--Slovakia 2 at Northern Ireland 0. Stanislav Sestak and Filip Holosko scored for the Slovaks as they firmed up their lead in Group 3. Slovakia needs only a tie at home vs. second-place Slovenia to clinch its first World Cup berth. Northern Ireland had a chance to win the group before melting in front of its home crowd, in Belfast.

--Ecuador 3 at Bolivia 1. Edison Mendez scored in the fourth minute to touch off a rout by Ecuador at La Paz, Bolivia's 12,000-foot aerie. Ecuador thus jumps Argentina into fourth place in South America. Ecuador finishes with Uruguay at home and at Chile.

--Colombia 1 at Uruguay 3. The Uruguayans moved within one point of Argentina in fifth place in the South America standings, putting even more pressure on Diego Maradona's squad. Fifth place is worth a home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 team out of Cocancaf -- most likely Costa Rica. Sixth place is worth nothing.

--United States 1 at Trinidad & Tobago 0. Ricardo Clark scored for the Americans in the 62nd minute at Port of Spain as they vaulted to the lead in Concacaf, thanks to Mexico's 1-0 victory over visiting Honduras in Azteca Stadium. The Americans need only a tie, at home, vs. Costa Rica, to gain a berth in their sixth consecutive World Cup finals -- following a 40-year absence.

--Gabon 1 at Cameroon 2. The Indomitable Lions of Cameroon needed only five days to go from worst to first in Africa's Group A by defeating former leader (and cuddly long shot) Gabon twice. Inter Milan star Samuel Eto'o scored for Cameroon in both matches.

Next big day of qualifying? October 10. Discuss it amongst yourselves. We will quiz you on it later.
Read more!

The Road to 2010: Gabon Takes Wrong Turn

It was the African Cinderella story. The little country that had never been anywhere and never done much of anything ... was one victory away from seizing control of its group and taking the inside track to qualifying out of its group to South Africa 2010.

But in five days, the fairy tale unraveled for Gabon at the hands of Cameroon, which has an infinitely richer soccer history -- six World Cup appearances, four African championships -- and far more players competing in major European leagues ... and now Gabon has to hope Cameroon will go back to stubbing its toe.

I feel badly for Gabon. Because all 1.5 million people in the little West African country had nearly three full months to daydream about how wonderful it would be to get to the finals ... and then Cameroon came along to return the situation to, well, normalcy.

It was pretty straightforward.

On Saturday, Gabon sat atop Africa Group A with six points and Cameroon was at the bottom with one. If Gabon could win at home, in Libreville, it would have nine points, and Cameroon would be all but done ... and what a nice story for Gabon -- best known in the U.S. as a nature preserve and setting for the most recent installment of the reality television series "Survivor."

But Cameroon, under new coach Paul Le Guen, survived an early Gabonese onslaught and got goals from forward Samuel Eto'o (Inter Milan), three-time African footballer of the year, and midfielder Achille Emana (Real Betis) to win 2-0.

The teams met again today, at Yaounde in Cameroon, and Eto'o scored again, as did midfielder Jean Makoun (Lyon). One of Gabon's few well-known players, forward Daniel Cousin (Hull City) scored in the 90th minute, and the Gabonese had a decent shot or two in extra time ... but couldn't get that precious second goal.

And now Cameroon has zoomed to the top of the Group A standings, and Gabon needs help.

Gabon probably needs to finish with victories next month (home to Morocco) and in Novermber (at Togo) ... and hope Cameroon stumbles, either at home against Togo or at Morocco.

An odd sidelight to this World cup campaign, gone so suddenly wrong for Gabon, is that the death of the country's presodent may have played a role in its demise. The first match with Cameroon was to have been played in Gabon on June 20, but President Omar Bongo died after 42 years of rule, and his state funeral was held on June 19.

Back in June, Cameroon was a confused mess, having lost at Togo and played a scoreless draw at home to Morocco, and if Gabon has been able to play Cameroon back then, before Le Guin came in and revived the Indomitable Lions ... maybe Gabon wins and takes a commanding lead in the group.

Instead, Gabon asked for the match to be pushed back, and it was set for Sept. 5, with the return to Cameroon moved to Sept. 9, and now Gabon is in trouble.

A hard thing, for Gabon. It may be a while before it gets close enough again to a World Cup to taste it. Read more!

Qualifier Preview: The 10 Biggest Matches

Another huge day of qualifying for South Africa 2010 on Wednesday, 35 matches involving every continental grouping aside from Oceania.

We won't try to take on 35 previews, but we can skim off what we consider the top 10 matches and outline why they rate.

Here we go, counting down from No. 10:

10. Netherlands at Scotland, at Glasgow. The Dutch clinched Group 9 back in June, and normally rate as heavy favorites against the athletically limited Scots. But Scotland is home and has far more to play for, on the last day of play in Group 9, hoping for at least a point to ensure a second-place finish and a shot at being one of the eight-best European second-place teams -- advancing to a home-and-home playoffs to determine Europe's final four berths to South Africa. (Though a victory likely would be necessary to accrue enough points to put the Scotland in the playoffs.) Scotland is coming off a 2-0 victory over Macedonia. Birmingham City striker James McFadden scored in that one, and appears to be Scotland's top threat. The question here is how much the Dutch care about this match; if they are up for it, they should win, even in Glasgow. A Dutch victory, combined with a Norway home victory over Macdeonia, puts the Norwegians into second place on the basis of goal differential.

9. Colombia at Uruguay, at Montevideo. Resurgent Colombia could jump into fourth place -- and South America has four guaranteed slots to the 2010 finals -- with a road victory combined with an Argentina defeat at Paraguay. But the Colombians have yet to win a road match (though they have four ties in seven outings, including one vs. Brazil), and have struggled to score (only nine goals) throughout qualifying. Young strikers Jackson Martinez and Teofilo Gutierrez found the net in a 2-0 victory over Ecuador on Saturday. This is a last stand for Uruguay, a nation with a proud World Cup pedigree (championships in 1930 and 1950) that has struggled of late; a 1-0 defeat at lowly Peru on Saturday was crushing. Victory is imperative if the Uruguayans hope to finish even fifth in the South America standings and play the Concacaf No. 4 finisher for a berth in South Africa.

8. Croatia at England, at London. It's England, Masters of the Game, with round-the-clock media coverage, and a chance to clinch a 2010 berth, so Everything Seems Bigger around this national side. So we will include this one in our 10, even though the English, unbeaten after seven Group 6 matches, probably finish first even with a defeat, given that they still will be up a point, with a match in hand, and impossible to catch if they can scrounge three points from games at Ukraine and home against Belarus. Recollections of Croatia keeping England from Euro 2008 are still keen in England. Croatia will play at Wembley Stadium without midfield star Luka Modric.

7. Portugal at Hungary, at Budapest. A bell is about to toll for somebody here -- either the underachieving Portuguese or the (till a moment ago) overachieving Hungarians. A defeat would be disastrous to either side, currently fourth and second in Europe Group 1. It remains hard to imagine that Cristian Ronaldo and Portugal could miss the World Cup, but they will if they lose to Hungary, which is coming off a crushing, last-minute 2-1 loss (at home) to Sweden.

6. Argentina at Paraguay, at Asuncion. The Argentines haven't won a qualifier on the road in nearly two years, but this would be a good time to start, against the No. 3 team in the South America standings. Paraguay has much as stake, as well: A victory clinches a berth in South Africa with two matches in hand. Diego Maradona, Argentina coach, needs offense from Lionel Messi or Carlos Tevez or someone. Paraguay, anything but a glamour squad, is getting fine play from attackers Salvador Cabanas (Club America) and Nelson Valdez (Borussia Dortmund), midfielder Cristian Riveros (Cruz Azul) and keeper (and captain) Justo Villar, who plays at Valladolid in Spain.

5. Bahrain at Saudi Arabia, at Riyadh. This is the last match in Asia qualifying and will determine who finishes fifth -- and moves on as the favorite to defeat Oceania champion New Zealand in a home-and-home for a South Africa berth. The winner will be the representative of the Arab world in the World Cup, so the stakes are huge. They played a scoreless match in Manama on Saturday in the first half of a home-and-home playoffs. Which means Saudi goes through with a 1-0 victory, but Bahrain advances (on the strength of away goals) if it can manage a 1-1 or 2-2 tie. Saudi Arabia has the more interesting international pedigree (four finals appearances to Bahrain's none), but there is little to choose from between these teams, currently ranked Nos. 64 and 65 in FIFA's international rankings.

4. France at Serbia, at Belgrade. Serbia can clinch Group 7 with a home victory, and is favored to do so, playing at home. France won the match at Stade de France, 2-1, last October, but the talented but erratic French are coming off a frustrating home draw vs. Romania. Coach Raymond Domenech may not survive a defeat, and he will need production from Thierry Henry and Nicolas Anelka for France to win and turn this into a race to the finish.

3. Slovakia at Northern Ireland, at Belfast. Two surprise teams playing for the lead in Group 3. The Ulstermen, after taking a point out of Poland on Saturday, can jump Slovakia in the standings with a victory at Windsor Park (although Slovakia has a game in hand). Kyle Lafferty, the goal-scorer in Poland, may sit this out with a knee injury, meaning David Healy will be looked to for offense. Slovakia just suffered a home draw with the Czechs, twice losing leads and slowing the charge for ts first World Cup berth as an independent nation. But a victory here would put the Slovaks in excellent shape to finish first, and they could even clinch Wednesday if things break right elsewhere.

2. Switzerland at Latvia, at Riga. Latvia never has played in a World Cup finals, but the unfancied Balts could turn Europe Group 2 into madness of they defeat the visiting Swiss, creating a three-way tie atop the standings at 16 points if Greece wins at bottom-feeder Moldova. Latvia's players play for some utterly unremarkable European sides, many of them in the domestic league. Kaspars Gorkss, a defender for Queen's Park Rangers, a second-tier English club, scored the goal at Israel on Saturday that vaulted the Letts into contention to win the group. Switzerland normally is led by the veteran attacking duo of Alexander Frei and Blaise Kufo, but it was midfielder Marco Padalino and defender Stephane Grichting who scored in the key, 2-0 home victory over Greece on Saturday. It isn't a stretch to suggest this is the biggest soccer match in Latvia's history.

1. Honduras at Mexico, at Mexico City. Los Tricolores (almost) never lose at Estadio Azteca, but Honduras is big, athletic and on a roll, having won its last two matches by an aggregate 8-1 score. If Carlos Costly, Carlos Pavon, David Suazo & Co. can get a goal or two in Mexico City's smog and altitude, it could lead directly to South Africa 2010. (Little noticed: Honduras has conceded only seven goals in seven matches, fewest in the Concacaf Hexagonal.) Mexico is back on track after trashing Costa Rica 3-0 at San Jose, with prodigy Giovani dos Santos leading the way. Both these teams are involved in the four-team clot atop the regional standings and seem supremely confident. It could be a great match. Read more!