South Africa Looks Better to Gamblers

South Africa is ranked No. 90 in the world. It has not been playing well in international matches since the Confederations Cup almost a year ago.

But someone thinks South Africa has at least a decent shot of having some success in its own World Cup.

Bookmakers!

Perhaps trying to buck up the home fans, who have had their hopes battered down by a string of poor results by the national side, the Johannesburg Times is all over this story:

Gamblers rank South Africa 18th to 21st to win the World Cup!

Hey, that's something. Someone believes! ... that the Bafana Bafana Bafana won't be the worst team at South Africa 2010.

The story quotes a "trader" at Ladbroke's, a famous London gambling site, as saying the BBB will be lifted by hometown enthusiasm when the tournament begins on June 11, with South Africa playing Mexico.

"Even though they are in a tough, competitive group, if they qualify [for the last 16] they will be tough for any team to come up against," the bookie told the newspaper. "Being host nation will play a key role and the backing of the fanatical supporters will be tough for any nation to come up against."

According to the Times, Ladbrokes and other books suggest South Africa's chances of winning the tournament (hah!) are as good or better than those of Nigeria, Australia, Denmark and Switzerland. (Not that any of those countries has any chance at all of winning.)

Ladbrokes' line suggests South Africa is the least likely of the four teams in Group A (France, Mexico and Uruguay are the others) to get out of the group stage. Perhaps reflecting the money already put down by sober gamblers.

Realistically, it comes down to the first match. If South Africa picks up a point against Mexico, I think the country goes nuts and somehow the Bafana Bafana Bafana (slogan: if saying it twice is good, saying it three times is better) picks up enough points to slip into the knockout phase. If Mexico wins and South Africa deflates like a punctured balloon ... the BBB might not earn a point.

Bookies may be weighing that option themselves. "Not very good but ..."

And Ladbrokes has Spain as the favorite to win the whole thing. Not Brazil.

Might take a couple bucks of that action. If gambling were legal. Read more!

Brazil 2014 Gets Kick in the Pants

Getting ahead of ourselves again. But this time only four years out.

Jerome Valcke, Fifa general secretary and Sepp Blatter's strong right arm, gave Brazil 2014 organizers a spanking today ... for what apparently is a lot of nothing going on in preparation for the big event four years hence.

To wit:

Valcke says Brazil has done little or nothing on the stadium front. "It's incredible how late Brazil is, and I'm talking about all the stadiums," he told Reuters. "A lot of deadlines have passed and nothing has happened. Brazil is not on the right path."

He seemed to make a sort of poke at Latin "manana" culture when he wondered when Brazil would feel a sense of urgency. "This year, there's a presidential election so almost nothing will happen. Next year, Carnival comes along. So everything's only going to start after Carnival?"

The suggestion seems to be that Brazil has never quite taken seriously the logistical/practical side of the 2014 bid. Brazil essentially was handed the 2014 World Cup because back in 2007, when it was awarded, Fifa was using its lame "rotation" system, and it was South America's turn.

The problem with that was ... that no other South American nation put on a serious bit, and by 2003 the nation's other nine federations backed Brazil's bid. And that was that.

Brazil talked a lot about the nation's contributions to the event, the five championships and all the great players. "Come to our place and party."

But not much was said how or what would be done on the building front, and now Fifa has gone over to have a look ... and it doesn't look like much.

Consider this Fifa's way of trying to jolt Brazil into some life. Brazil seems to have gotten a little smug of late, about its golden future, blah blah blah. But, really, what has Brazil done in the past 60 years on the international sports front? A Pan-Am Games or two, but no Olympics, no World Cups ...

Time to get moving, is what Jerome Valcke is telling Brazil. Read more!

Qatar in 2022? Sepp Wants It

Getting a little ahead of ourselves here ... like 12 years ahead of ourselves ...

But Fifa boss Sepp Blatter made clear the other day that he would like to see the 2022 World Cup in ... wait for it ... big soccer country ... a real hotbed ... wait ...

Qatar!

Which would seem like an amusing concept if you or I threw it out there. Sure. Qatar. Right there on the Arabian Peninsula, sticking into the Gulf like a sore thumb. A country that has never qualified for the World Cup, where summer weather is stunningly hot, a country with a tiny population ...

But here is the thing about Sepp and World Cup bidders:

Those he is thought to favor -- and sometimes he just comes out and tell us -- tend to be where the World Cup ends up. Such as South Africa 2010.

So those other nations bidding for 2010? You might be wasting your time, lads. That means you, the United States, Australia, South Korea and all those European contenders whose bids go on the junk pile if England gets the 2018 World Cup, as expected. Russia, Spain/Portugal, Belgium/Netherlands, Russia ...

If you didn't follow the link above, here is Sepp talking about Qatar:

"The Arab world deserves to host the World Cup. We are now nearing the end of the bidding process for the World Cups in 2018 and 2022 and Qatar is the only country bidding from the Middle East. I was an advocate of the Fifa's rotation policy. It was important to bring the World Cup to North America and Africa. Now I strongly feel that the World Cup should come to Qatar."

Again, wow. Can you imagine the head of, say, the IOC coming out so openly in favor of a single bidder before the process is complete? Neither can I.

Granted, Blatter was in Qatar when he pumped up the country for the 2022 World Cup. But of late he doesn't seem to pander to folks. He is more into delivering.

Remember, this is not some distant project. The host countries for both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups will be announced on Dec. 2. This year.

Yes, Qatar. Oil rich Qatar. Don't be surprised if you hear that name coming out of Sepp's mouth on Dec. 2. Read more!

Corruption in Fifa, South Africa Alleged

I'm not even going to try to do much in the way of synthesizing here.

It's complicated ... it's technical ... I'm not sure how dependable the sources are ... but some or much of what they allege might be true.

Here is the story from the Johannesburg Times on a report/book issued by an entity called the Institute for Security Studies. No, I don't know quite what it is, either. And here is a pdf file from the press conference the group held this week to announce their book/study.

In it ... at least according to the interpretation by the newspaper ... are some fairly hazy charges of corruption involving Fifa and South African officials.

Among them:

--Awarding a company the right to handle accommodations for fans, and seeing that company charge up to "1,000 percent" above normal rates.

--Suggestions that a deal signed with a firm to manage the main stadium for South Africa 2010, Soccer City, will not yield any profit for the city.

--Allegations that the bid to build the stadium in Cape Town was decided by Fifa president Sepp Blatter the day before a meeting was to be held to review the six bids ... and that the winning bid Blatter hand-picked was the most expensive.

The one quotation tied to the story comes from Andrew Jennings, a contributing editor to the book and a professional Blatter-basher, is this one, on Fifa:

"The unaccountable structure they’ve installed is honed to deliver the game to the needs of global capitalism – with no checks or restraints. Just cheques."

Not sure quite what to make of this. Not much here seems nailed down, to my journalist's way of thinking. But we have enough suspicious stuff going on to make us all wonder how much of this whole World Cup process came together on the up and up.

Go have a look at it yourself. See what you think. Read more!

Kiwis Amateurish? Well, Actually ...

This story is heart-warming. Or a stunning indictment.

Take your choice. Want to feel good about New Zealand's World Cup team? Or would you prefer to feel sorry for it?

The Kiwis may very well show up at South Africa 2010 with an amateur player in their ranks.

Which is a nice sidebar, but probably doesn't bode well for their chances of escaping Group F ... with a point ... or even a goal.

Not that anyone thought much of their chances beforehand.

The amateur in question is Barron, a banker by day, an unpaid midfielder for the Wellington club team by night.

It's not as if he has never put in time for the New Zealand national side. He came on as a substitute in the Kiwis' biggest victory in 28 years, the 1-0 decision over Bahrain in a playoff for a World Cup berth.

But, generally, World Cup players are paid millions of dollars by club teams to ply their trade. Or at least hundreds of thousands. Even non-traditional soccer nations such as South Korea, Japan, the United States ... all their guys are pro.

(North Korean players do not play for pay, but they might well be able to, if their bizarre government allowed them.)

Barron is being given time off by his employer to practice with the All Whites, and appears to stand a very good chance of making the roster ... of the least-fancied (as the Brits would say) side in the tournament. Behind even the hosts and the North Koreans.

But how many bankers can say they went to the World Cup as players?

Barron realizes not many (if any) other amateurs will appear at the tournament. "I can't imagine there will be many others there," he said.

New Zealand, with an amateur.

Isn't that cute?

Isn't that pitiful? Read more!

Fan Fests! for Ticketless ... Fans

Seems a bit late to be getting around to this, six weeks ahead of the World Cup. But better than late than never ... we think. I mean, assuming security is OK, and people are able to get in and out ...

South Africa 2010 will have what they are calling Fan Fests, just as Germany did in 2006.

The idea is basic and almost a "have to do it" sort of thing.

Organizers arrange places where fans can gather and watch matches -- in large groups -- and enjoy the feeling of being at a match ... when they are not.

South Africa concedes right off that it won't have Fan Fests on the scale Germany did, where an estaimted 18 million people gathered at non-game-venues to watch matches.

South Africa's total Fan Fest capacity is 275,000, all of it at stadiums not being used for the World Cup. That isn't a big number, but that is a start, especially in a country where many soccer fans cannot afford match tickets. If they can get in free to see, say, their own team play, or Brazil or one of Africa's other team ... well, that's a great gesture.

It's a little unsettling that this is just now coming together. Anything organized at the last minute tends to turn out ... looking like something last-minute.

Presumably, people in South Africa have been talking to the Germans about this. Tips about organization and logistics and transport and all that.

I know people who have been at these sorts of events. Such as outside the Hotel de Ville in Paris in 1998 for the opener between Brazil and Scotland, and it was described as great fun, with thousands of people there who couldn't get tickets or just wanted to party in a soccer atmosphere, perhaps without really caring all that much about the soccer but caring a lot about the event.

Anyway, yes, this SA2010 Fan Fest thing has the capacity to bring the World Cup much closer to lots of people who otherwise would feel no connection to it at all. That's good. Read more!

South Africa Falls to 90 in Fifa Rankings

Hard not to feel pessimistic about the Bafana Bafana Bafana. (If the same name twice is good, can't three be better?) South Africa's soccer team hasn't had an impressive performance since the Confederations Cup, which was in June, and by "impressive" we mean spirited defeats to Brazil and Spain.

The new Fifa world rankings are out, and South Africa's fall to No. 90 has alarmed and depressed the Johannesburg Times. Well, anyone in South Africa who is paying attention. Rankings are for show, but when they have Brazil and Spain at the top we must concede that perhaps the list has some basis in reality. Or predictable performance, anyway.

Concepts to consider:

--South Africa will be the lowest-ranked team to host a World Cup. (Previous low: South Korea at No. 40 in 2002.) And absolutely is at risk of becoming the first host not to survive group play. We can assume the Bafana Bafana Bafana will play better than they are, in front of home crowds, but will it be enough to earn them results against Mexico, France and Uruguay? Seems as if the first match, vs. Mexico, is critical. A point out of that changes everything for the BBB. A defeat might just do the impossible: Silence the vuvuzelas.

--Brazil is back up to No. 1, slipping past Spain. Seems about right. Lots to like about Spain, but hard to rank them over Brazil, especially with the coldly efficient Carlos Caetano Bledorn Verri (Dunga) coaching the team. All that Brazilian talent inside an actual system? Look out.

--Portugal is third, its highest ranking since Fifa began doing this in 1993. Which is interesting, because the global opinion of Portugal seems to be that it was a bit lucky to make the tournament at all. And certainly this crop of players is not remotely as well-received as the Luis Figo generation, considered a darkhorse choice to win it all in 2002. Remember, Portugal is stuck in the 2010 Group of Death (along with Brazil and Ivory Coast and the Walking Dead, North Korea). If Cristiano Ronaldo and the lads survive Ivory Coast and escape the group, the rankings would seem to indicate Portugal has a fairly good chance of seeing Brazil again -- in the final.

--The highest rankings that don't quite feel right begin with Argentina at No. 7 (Maradona is still coach, right?), continue with England at No. 8 (a bit low for a team that has won everything for a while now), Croatia at No. 9 (third in their qualifying group and not in the World Cup), France at 10 (hello! Raymond Domenech still coach!), and then Greece, Egypt, the United States and Chile at Nos. 12-15. Are they really surpassed by only 11 teams?

--More meaningful rankings are on the way. Fifa's story on the April rankings notes that almost no international matches were played in the past month, so teams are moving around incrementally bases on minimal results. As the story notes, we can anticipate some serious movement when the last batch of rankings come out, one month hence, after a whole bunch of pre-Cup friendlies are played. Read more!