Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Fifa: South Africa Not Ready

Wow. This is like your mom saying, "Actually, he's not getting it done."

If Fifa says anything negative about a host country's preparations ... that's a punch to the gut equivalent to 20 or 30 rants in the British press. As an organizing committee, you expect unconditional love from Fifa.

If Fifa's No. 2 guy says "no, they're not ready," he's saying, "you better get going because we're not going to cover for you anymore."

Jerome Valcke, Sepp Blatter's favorite boy, said that today. "Could we host the World Cup tomorrow morning? The answer is no."

Whoa.

He is correct, of course.

He cited several issues:

--The main stadium, Soccer City venue in Johannesburg, is not finished. The first match will be played there in little over 100 days. The stadium not being ready ... is an issue. A few days ago, Valcke said something to the effect that it's never a comfortable feeling when the main stadium isn't ready. Uh, yeah.

--Fifa and South Africa 2010 have 700,000 tickets (of 2.9 million) still to sell.

--The quality of the playing surfaces is patchy.

--Some of the accommodations for the incoming teams aren't done, either. Such as that allegedly posh place England would be staying at. Not done.

So, there's a shot over the bow, for South Africa. Clean this stuff up. Finish it off. Momma Fifa says you need to get it done.
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Monday, February 22, 2010

Ronaldo and One More Go-Round?

Talking about the other Ronaldo here. And you know it's been a rough few years if you are a three-time Fifa player of the year ... and some other guy has taken over your name. That other guy being Cristiano Ronaldo.

We're talking about the first famous Ronaldo. Full name ... Ronaldo Luis Nazario de Lima. Of Brazil. Who played on the World Cup-winning teams of 1994 and 2002.

Ronaldo said today he will retire next year. But he wants to play in one more World Cup.

Will he get the chance?

Only if his former Brazil teammate, Dunga, calls him in. Which seems unlikely. Ronaldo hasn't played for the national team since 2006, so ...

Do you remember how good Ronaldo was? Really, really, really good. If you can't remember, check out this youtube video of highlights from the 1998 World Cup.

It's all there. The size. The speed. The sublime technical skills. Not many big men could hold a ball in traffic the way he did, nor run as fast. He had the whole package: athleticism as well as skill.

He was extremely good in that World Cup -- right up to the championship match, when he suffered some sort of attack -- a seizure, or perhaps a panic attack. But he wasn't very good, and Brazil was trounced 3-0. Years later, journalists were still writing about it. But note, too (if you stayed to the end of the video linked above), the violent collision he had with France goalkeeper Fabien Barthez. That couldn't have helped.

Ronaldo has had a rough time the past few years. He has been hurt nearly all the time. He gained weight. Or maybe he gained weight, then got hurt.

He is back playing for a club in Brazil, but he would like one more shot at the Big Event. South Africa 2010.

Most teams in the world, they would bring him along, for old-time's sake, and also because he might still have some real use. But Brazil has no need of sentimentality ... and far too many players in their prime, as opposed to 33, chubby and hurt.

But the Original Ronaldo was just amazingly good. (I just remembered the TV commercial that showed him dribbling through, what, an airport? This isn't the version I was thinking of, but it gives you an idea.)

Put that on our wish list: Ronaldo with Brazil in South Africa. And maybe a few minutes in a first-round match. Can we make that happen?
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Sunday, February 21, 2010

Sven-Goran to Nigeria?

This is the coaching rumor du jour. Former England coach Sven-Goran Eriksson, a leading candidate for the Nigeria job.

He has experience, sure. Five years with England, including the 2002 and 2006 World Cups. A year with Mexico.

However, it wasn't quite as if he covered himself with glory at either place.

He was considered a bit rigid and unimaginative while running the Three Lions program. England tended to do well in matches that weren't high on the pressure scale ... but not nearly as well when the competition was stiff and the match crucial.

To wit: England lost in the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup (2-1 to Brazil), lost in the quarterfinals of Euro 2004 (to Portugal on penalties) and lost in the quarterfinals of the 2006 World Cup (3-1 to Portugal).

Then there were the mini-scandals in his personal life, which seemed to take attention away from the England team. (Some are recounted in his wiki entry.)

And then his one year with Mexico was fairly disastrous. He attempted to turn Mexico into a European-style team, with disastrous results. In 2009, his Mexico teams lost 2-0 to the United States and were crushed 3-1 by Honduras, and he was fired. mexico more or less rejoiced, and immediately went back to being a regional power, qualifying with ease for the World Cup. Once SGE was gone.

So, how would he do in Nigeria? Presumably, their playing style is a bit more like England's than Mexico's (with an emphasis on speed and power, vs. Mexico's guile and technique). Hard to say, though. I still think Bora Milutinivoc, who got Nigeria to the quarterfinals in 1998, would be a better choice.

What Eriksson represents, however, is a high-visibility European coach who presumably could take any pressire off the Nigerian federation. If the team fails, it's that Swede's fault.

Glenn Hoddle apparently is in the running, too. And there may be more.
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Saturday, February 20, 2010

Another Take on Ticket Situation

The version of the story that appeared in the Johannesburg Times is more interested in which tickets aren't sold, rather than how many.

And this may be the more interesting way to look at this.

Instead of focusing on the "800,000 of 2.9 million tickets haven't been sold," the AP version of the story that the Times ran singles out a dropoff in VIP-level tickets.

And the demand for those is half of what Fifa and organizers expected.

Not selling the expensive tickets is an issue because the profit margin is so much higher, as the story points out.

A Fifa spokesman blamed it on the economy, saying the past year "was the worst year to sell hospitality programs," suggesting it impacted sales by 50 percent. But the AP writer also makes note of the important point of the cost of getting to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup, and the cost of staying there. "Price gouging" is the expression. Plus, fears that South Africa isn't safe.

Oh, and another stat I'm not sure the London Telegraph story we linked to yesterday had:

Jerome Valcke, Fifa's man, suggested that South Africa will get perhaps 350,000 tourists instead of the 450,000 it expected.

So we stand by our suggestion yesterday that the prices for housing (especially) and air travel may be about to take a dive.

Hang tight. Wait for the bargain. A gap of 100,000 fans opens up a lot of seats on jumbo jets, and a lot of hotel rooms.
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Friday, February 19, 2010

Oops! Fifa Concedes 2010 Ticket Gaffes

Fifa and South Africa and some of those in the travel industry clearly overestimated the global demand for high-priced tickets as part of high-priced trips to the 2010 World Cup.

Fifa's first clue? Beyond the quite-public grousing by officials in several countries ... and the sticker shock expressed by just about every fan who priced the trip ...

Fifa's first clue? Less than four months ahead of South Africa 2010, only 2.1 million of 2.9 million tickets have been sold for the planet's biggest sports event. That is, more than one-fourth of all tickets (27.4 percent) remain unsold.

And now Fifa concedes it didn't quite get this right. A startling admission for an entity that rarely allows that it gets anything less than perfect.

The biggest fallout from these miscalculations: Fifa is going to all but give away 800,000 or so tickets to South Africans. Which is nice for the poor people of South Africa, but bad for the bottom line of the ledgers for Fifa, the organizers and the South African tourist industry.

This event was overpriced from the first day. And then when fans actually began to try to figure out how much travel and lodging would cost ... ticket demand fell dramatically.

I don't know how many tickets Germans eventually bought, but a month or so again they had purchased only about one-third of their allotment of 20,000-plus tickets.

Even England didn't buy its full allotment, and English enthusiasm for its national side is as crazy-giddy as it has been in years. Well, since at least 2006.

Instead of reacting to that flabby demand, and adjusting ticket prices downward (and allowing the travel market to adjust its unrealistic expectations, as well) ... Fifa is going to downgrade high-cost "category 2 and 3" tickets to "category 4" -- and sell them for about $20 each.

Fifa lives in terror of stadiums that are not full, especially when the host nation has just spent billions on building them. It looks bad on TV, too, when matches are played in half-empty stadiums. (And will South Africans pay even $20 a pop to see, say, Honduras and Chile? ... New Zealand and Paraguay? ... North Korea and Portugal?)

How Fifa and the organizers miscalculated so badly is puzzling. South Africa isn't geographically close to any of the usual sources of traveling soccer fans. That is, Europeans or Americans (North and South). It is a long, expensive flight to South Africa from anywhere in the First World, and Fifa had to know that South Africa's hotel industry would try to wring every last dollar/peso/pound out of the tourists, complicating the expense in the middle of a global economic slowdown.

Now?

Look for the resale price of tickets to plummet, now that more than a quarter of them have just been re-priced at something that seems rather like "free" to residents of the First World ... and watch for airline prices and hotel charges to fall off a cliff. Because 800,000 fewer foreigners are coming to town, and now we all know.

If you happen to hold tickets ... well, our condolences for buying at the higher prices ... but if you haven't yet purchased your plane ticket or booked your hotel ... wait at least a few weeks and let the panic set in.

Look for a massive shakeout of the tourism side of this, and far better prices than you could have hoped for even a few days ago.

Fifa just burst the overpriced balloon of financial expectations on this World Cup.

It now is about filling stadiums and saving face. Not about making money, anymore. At least not a fraction of what Sepp Blatter and the boys could have counted on flowing in ... had this event been held in the First World. Or had they done a realistic assessment of likely demand.

Rather a mess. Rather.
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Thursday, February 18, 2010

England's Heir and Spare to See SA2010

Wills and Harry are coming! Wills and Harry are coming!

Sigh.

Don't you always get a bit embarrassed when people from countries without native royalty ... get all weak in the knees over the British royals?

South Africa may be about to demonstrate this.

The Johannesburg Times is reporting, and attributing it to The Daily Mail, that princes William and Harry will be in South Africa for at least part of the 2010 World Cup.

Be still, my beating heart!

William and Harry are Nos. 2-3 on the in-line-to-the-throne list, behind their father, Prince Charles. (Their mother was Diana Spencer, who died in an automobile crash in Paris in 1997.)

Wills' and Harry's proximity to the throne (even a powerless one) seems to get people fired up. People who have forgotten they are anti-royal republicans or democrats or comrades, etc.

Anyway, I suppose this is good for the 2010 World Cup. A bit more buzz with those guys around for however long it is.

They apparently will see England play at least once. Imagine how fired up the English players will be knowing the Heir and the Spare (as they were once known) are watching. Yeah.

William turns 29 during the World Cup. Henry (Harry's actual name) is 25.

The two of them apparently are sharing a house, and they generally don't travel together, and why I'm still writing about this, I don't know.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Guus Hiddink: Out of World Cup Circulation

Nigeria has an opening for a coach. Japan might. North Korea might.

All we know for sure about those three jobs is this:

Guss Hiddink won't be taking them.

Hiddink is the planet's leading soccer-coach hired gun. Have passport, will travel. (And yes, I know that expression means nothing to non-Americans under the age of 50. It comes from an old American TV show, named "Have Gun-- Will Travel" and having to do with a gunslinger known as "Paladin" who would go wherever the pay was good.)

Guus is like that. A "show me the money" kind of guy. (Another American cultural reference. From the movie "Jerry Maguire..")

Anyway, Guus is golden after getting Holland to the 1998 World Cup semifinals, South Korea to the 2002 WC semifinals and Australia to the second round in 2006. Not to mention the Euro 2008 semifinal surge by Guus and his Russia team.

He will not, however, be coaching at South Africa 2010, and I'm a little disappointed in him because of that.

Guus apparently will sign a contract with Turkey when his stint with Russia is up, later this year. Which is fine ... but Turkey didn't qualify for the 2010 World Cup, and I think SA2010 is diminished by his not being there.

Really, this story is more about Euro 2012 than the 2010 World Cup. Well, of course. Hiddink's first goal is to get Turkey qualified for the big Euro event, after Turkey crashed out of South Africa qualifying.

I liked the concept of Guus as free agent. I would have like to see him in charge of Nigeria's talented but underachieving squad. Or Japan's or North Korea's -- if those jobs come open.

But Guus is living up to his Russia contract, then shifting to Turkey, and that's nice for those who like to see contracts fulfilled ... but takes away a little of the cachet when it comes to "who will Nigeria hire?" to coach its 2010 team.

Some other Euro, no doubt. Just not someone as successful as Guus has been.
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