Top 10 Qualifiers Coming This Weekend

Is it just me, or is the soccer world so intent on/overwhelmed by the early stages of the Western European club seasons ... that the next critical four days of qualifying are being almost overlooked?

By the night of Oct. 14 -- a week from Wednesday -- we will know the identity of at least nine more World Cup finalists -- and that number could go as high as 13, depending on results in Africa.

That is, known participants in South Africa 2010 could more than double in the next nine days, from 11 to as many as 24.

To jump start the discussion, our list of the 10 most important of the 40 qualifying matches to be played this weekend, Oct. 10-11:

10. Rwanda at Algeria, at Blida. Algeria moves excruciatingly close to its first World Cup finals berth since 1986 with a victory, and it is heavily favored at home over Rwanda. What makes this Africa Group C match interesting is that last-place Rwanda has been stingy giving up goals (five in four matches). An Algeria victory in this Sunday match, paired with an Egypt victory over Rwanda the day before, sets up a massive Algeria-at-Egypt match on Nov. 14. Algeria needs only a tie to advance.

9. New Zealand at Bahrain, at Manama. The first leg of the home-and-home playoffs for a World Cup berth between the Oceania champion and Asia's No. 5 club. Nothing will be determined here (the second leg is Nov. 14, in New Zealand), but a two-goal victory (either way) could put one of these teams well along the road to South Africa. Bahrain is the Arab world's standard bearer; New Zealand is the only vaguely competent side left in Oceania, with Australia having defected to Asia.

8. United States at Honduras, at San Pedro Sula. Honduras arguably has been the most impressive side in Concacaf Hexagonal competition, aggressive in the attack and blessed with big, fast and skilled players, and particularly impressive at home, where it is 4-0-0 with a 12-2 goal differential. "Home," however, is in a bit of turmoil; the elected president was ousted by a coup, is holed up in the Brazilian embassy, and there is a chance of domestic violence (or at least upheaval) at any moment. The U.S. sits atop the Hexagonal, and could clinch a World Cup berth with a tie, but it rates as an underdog in steamy San Pedro Sula.

7. Togo at Cameroon, at Yaounde. Cameroon can come near to completing its stunning worst-to-first sprint (it was dead last in its group a month ago today) with a victory over the Togo squad that pinned a 1-0 upset defeat on it back in March. If Gabon ties or loses to Morocco, a Cameroon victory here would clinch Africa Group A for the Indomitable Lions, putting Cameroon into the finals for the fifth time since 1990. If both Cameroon and Cabon win, the group goes to Nov. 14, with Cameroon playing at Morocco and Gabon at Togo.

6. Chile at Colombia, at Medellin. Chile clinches one of South America's four guaranteed berths with a victory. Colombia, currently No. 8 in the South America standings, reintroduces itself into the contender equation with a victory -- because its final match, at Paraguay, is against a team already in the World Cup. If the Colombians can get six points, in their final two matches, and jump up to 26 points, they could fourth or fifth. But the Colombians (5-2-1 at home; 2-0-0 at Medellin) have to beat Chile first.

5. Latvia at Greece, at Athens. The teams are tied for second in Europe Group 2, and a winner, if there is one, will be all but certain of getting the runner-up berth and a place in the home-and-home playoffs among UEFA second-place teams for a South Africa berth. Latvia is one of the surprise clubs in all of European qualifying; nearly its entire roster plays for little-known domestic clubs. Both teams have fairly easy final matches: Greece at Luxembourg, Latvia home to Moldova. A tie is to Greece's benefit, because it holds a slender, one-goal advantage in differential and is more likely to score a rash of goals in its final match than is Latvia.

4. Uruguay at Ecuador, at Quito. Seeking its third consecutive appearance in the finals, Ecuador sits fourth in the South America standings with two matches left, but Uruguay remains very much in contention for a top-four finish, as well. Ecuador almost has to win, at its 9,300-foot-high aerie; it doesn't want to have to go to Chile needing a point or three, especially if Chile is still fighting to qualify. This is a huge opportunity for Uruguay, a country with a proud (championships in 1030 and 1950) World Cup tradition. If the sea-level side can stage an upset, it probably will control its destiny when its Oct. 14 home match with Argentina rolls around.

3. Slovenia at Slovakia, at Bratislava. Slovakia punches its ticket for South Africa (and its first World Cup finals as an independent nation) with a tie. Slovenia keeps alive its slim hopes of finishing first atop Europe Group 3 if it can win, and a tie keeps it in the race for the No. 2 slot and a home-and-home playoff for a berth. Arguably, the biggest match in Slovakian history.

2. Sweden at Denmark, at Copenhagen. The Danes clinch Europe Group 1 with a victory over their Scandinavian rivals. Sweden pulls into a tie with Denmark atop the group with a victory. Sweden also has the easier final match, home against Albania while Denmark is home to more formidable Hungary. The Danes do have a semi-comfortable goal differential advantage over Sweden, 11-6.

1. Germany at Russia, at Moscow. A showdown of the superpowers in Europe Group 4; they have outscored their group opponents by a combined tally of 42-8. Each has stumbled only once in eight qualifying matches to date -- Germany in a 3-3 draw at Finland, Russia in a 2-1 loss to the Germans at Dortmund last November. Germany clinches the group with a victory. Russia, which finishes at feeble Azerbaijan, all but clinches if it can win Saturday. A draw helps the Germans, who then could clinch with a home victory over Finland on Oct. 14. Also, all sorts of historical and geopolitical subplots when these two face off.
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Reports of France's Demise Are Exaggerated

France hasn't covered itself in glory in World Cup qualifying, to date, but things aren't nearly as bad as this fairly hysterical espn.com story would suggest.

France is second in Europe Group 7 and is almost certain to clinch the No. 2 slot when it plays at home against little Faroe Islands on Oct. 10.

And a second-place finish puts France into one of the four home-and-home playoffs with another second-place team out of Europe. France would rate as a favorite over nearly any second-place team, no?

Meanwhile, Serbia likely will win Group 7. A victory home against Romania or at Lithuania wraps up a berth in South Africa for the Serbs.

Certainly, a case can be made that France should jettison coach Raymond Domenech. He is a bit of a goofball ... but he also has contrived to turn the French into a group that can't score.

But France still has gobs of talent. Thierry Henry, Nicolas Anelka, Karim Benzema, Franck Ribery ... there is scoring ability there. Even if les bleus are an army of lions led by a rabbit (as Napoleon might have put it), the lions might be able to advance despite their Rabbit in Chief.

Yoann Gourcuff isn't available to France, and that creates a problem because he is a creative midfielder. But Ribery ought to be able to fill in.

Once it wraps up second place, all France needs is a home victory and a road draw to advance to South Africa. That would be a more achievable goal with someone else as coach ... but even Raymond Domenech ought to be able to scare up a home victory and a road tie against some other group runner-up. Read more!

Ronaldo Unavailable to Portugal?

Cristiano Ronaldo, arguably the greatest soccer player in the world, is injured and won't play Sunday for his club team, Real Madrid.

What the story (linked, above) doesn't address is this:

Will Ronaldo be available for Portugal's crucial World Cup qualifying match on Oct. 10?

Which comes back to an interesting question we probably will address at greater length sometime in the future:

Are club commitments such an overpowering concept that athletes (as well as journalists) don't bother to take international duties into account?

Ronaldo's unavailability for one of dozens of club matches this season ... is the sole point of attention in the story. When anyone who is interested in the World Cup would immediately and understandably wonder "so, what does it mean for Portugal?" And hope that topic were broached at least to the point of "Portugal has an important qualifying match with Hungary coming up and Ronaldo readiness for that match isn't known." Tell us you don't know what it means for a week from now, because a week from now is what the international soccer community is interested in.

Portugal is trying to rally, here at the end of qualifying for South Africa 2010, and finish at least second in Europe's Group 1 standings -- and get into the home-and-home playoff with some other second-place team.

Portugal is well-advised to win its final two matches -- home against Hungary next Saturday, and home against Malta on Oct. 14.

The second match is all but a sure victory. The first is anything but.

Hungary, remember, also still has a shot at finishing second in Group 1, and the Oct. 10 match should be very, very intense.

Giving us an idea of whether the reigning FIFA Player of the Year might be available for that match seems like the least the writer could do. But when club, club and club overpower even the World Cup ... information like that gets left out.

Interesting. Read more!

Olympics to Follow World Cup to Brazil

Rio de Janeiro was awarded the 2016 Olympic Games today in a vote by the International Olympic Committee. Which was a bit of a surprise for one reason:

The Olympics are going to Brazil only 24 months after the World Cup plays South America's superpower.

This could be a risky proposition for the Olympics because it sets up an almost head-to-head competition with the World Cup.

A competition that may well leave the Olympics in second place.

Commentators in the city of Chicago, one of three competitors with Rio, seemed convinced the potential confluence of events, in Brazil, would wreck the Rio bid for the Olympics.

In today's Chicago Tribune, commentator David Greising wrote, "Rio's bid-killer, though, is the fact that Brazil will host the World Cup in 2014. That's two short years before the 2016 Olympics, a mere eye blink for an IOC that measures time in quadrennials.

"Set aside legitimate concerns about Brazil's capacity to host the world's two biggest sports events within 24 months of each other. Instead, consider the issue that will rule out Rio for many IOC voters: The world's oldest sports movement does not like to share the spotlight with anyone; World Cup soccer least of all.

"In the Alice in Wonderland world of the Olympics, the IOC is the Queen of Hearts: vain and mercurial to the point of narcissism. Off with the heads of anyone who suggests the IOC must compete for sponsorship money, organizational efforts and the public's attention. As big as the Olympics are, the World Cup is at least as big everywhere outside the U.S, and futbol-mad Brazil is the last place in the world where the IOC would want to show up two years after the Cup."

Or not.

This could be very interesting.

Our sense for quite some time has been that the World Cup is a bigger event, in terms of global interest, than is the Summer Olympics. Aside from the United States and Canada, and maybe Australia and New Zealand (and the vanished Soviet-era bloc, which looked at the Olympics as a way to make political statements). And perhaps (perhaps) China because, like the U.S., China is far more successful in Olympics competition than it is in soccer competition.

But, as was noted in a previous blog post on this site, soccer appears to be the No. 1 game among the Chinese populace. Even if the Chinese can't actually play the game.

Something fun to keep tabs of will be the size of the TV audiences for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. The number of tourists for the former, and the latter.

We predict a World Cup victory. Followed by IOC self-reflection on why it allowed itself to be drawn into the sort of direct competition it wouldn't win. Read more!

Mexico Realizes Limitations, Scraps Cup Bids

If you've been in Mexico lately, or paid any attention to the news coming out of the country, the idea that a World Cup should be staged in Mexico in 2018 or even 2022 ... always seemed a little, oh, ridiculous.

Apparently, someone in Mexico's soccer federation also realized it wasn't such a good idea to try for the World Cup (never mind actually stage it), and the plug has been pulled on the bid process.

Mexico officials are citing the cost of the event, and that's one really good reason not to put on a World Cup.

But there are others.

1. Mexico has done little to improve its soccer infrastructure since it last hosted the World Cup, in 1986. That makes for a lot of aging and old-fashioned stadiums as potential World Cup venues, and that wasn't going to fly.

2. Mexico's economy is in the tank. Arguably worse than it was a generation ago.

3. Mexico is this close to turning into a narco-state. Many of the cities on the U.S. border and almost lawless, and several in the interior aren't much better. Mexico can't quite guarantee the security of its own citizens on a daily basis, and the idea of making the country safe for 500,000 or so World Cup visitors ... well, it wasn't going to happen.

That leaves Australia, England, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and the United States as candidates for both 2018 and 2022. Portugal and Spain, and Belgium and Holland, want to share hosting duties for either World Cup.

South Korea and Qatar are bidding only for 2022.

FIFA is scheduled to vote on hosts for both 2018 and 2022 in December of 2010. Brazil will play host to the 2014 World Cup. England probably is the favorite to get the 2018 World Cup, and the U.S. may be the front-runner for 2022.

Mexico is out of the loop until 2026, at the earliest. Which is just as well.

It's good when a country realizes its limitations. Mexico is a great soccer country, but this is not the time for it to take on the massive responsibility of a World Cup.

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Honduras Keeps Home Match Despite Unrest

An ousted president holed up in the Brazilian embassy?

A country being run by the leaders of a coup?

Cops taking over a pro-opposition radio station?

Not enough to convince FIFA to move a World Cup qualifying match out of Honduras.

The Oct. 10 match with the United States is crucial to Honduras's hopes of qualifying for the World Cup for only the second time in the country's history. Honduras is 4-0 at home in the final round of Concacaf qualifying, and losing its fifth and final home game -- to a neutral site or even to the U.S. -- would represent a disadvantage for the Central American nation's team.

To be sure, FIFA is in a delicate position.

--By saying the match won't be moved, FIFA runs the risk of appearing to legitimize the current government. Which isn't popular in most of the rest of Latin America. FIFA probably doesn't care who's in charge, but saying the Honduras match vs. the U.S. at San Pedro Sula will go on, that it's business as usual ... seems to suggest a tilt toward the current government, which took power via a coup.

--However, if FIFA were to move the match out of Honduras it might be seen as favoritism toward the U.S., which is a huge and lucrative and growing market for soccer. Certainly, soccer's global marketers would rather see the U.S. team -- representing 300 million people and the planet's biggest economy -- at South Africa in 2010 than Honduras's. And having Honduras play the U.S. anywhere but inside Honduras presumably would hurt Honduras and help the U.S.

Note the conditional tone in the FIFA statement. It "reserves the right to revisit the issue" should conditions deteriorate. Violence in the streets probably would qualify as a condition for revisiting the issue.

Certainly, the country isn't a tableau of peace and calm, as the latest news story out of Teguchigalpa indicates. Political wrangling is ongoing.

At the end of the day, FIFA just wants its schedule to go off as scheduled. So do most fans.

FIFA, like the International Olympic Committee, like any other world sports body, prefers to stay out of political issues. Unless it absolutely cannot. It would be nice to say FIFA wants peace ... but mostly it wants stability.

The next week or so should determine whether what is going on in Honduras can be ignored long enough to get in an international soccer match. Ultimately, soccer isn't bigger than life; it just seems like it sometimes.
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Maradona Hoping for Divine Intervention

This can't be good: Your coach is asking for the intervention of the Almighty to get his team to South Africa 2010. It's come to that?

Yes, we have more on Diego Maradona, who seems to fascinate the soccer world. Maybe because he has stood at such heights but also plumbed such depths?

That's the big picture. The smaller one, and more relevant to this discussion, is his role as coach of Argentina's struggling national team.

Maradona is now asking for God to take sides, at least when it comes to his team.

Argentina, one of the dozen most significant soccer-playing countries on the planet, has two South America qualifying matches left, and it could see its 2010 World Cup situation go one of three ways -- one good, one less good, one quite bad.

To wit:

1. Argentina wins one of South America's four guaranteed berths in South Africa by gaining at least one draw from its next two matches -- and getting help (from Uruguay or Chile) against Ecuador, currently sitting fourth. How much help depends on whether Argentina accrues six points, four points, three points, two points or one point from its games -- at home Oct. 10 vs. Peru, on the road Oct. 14 vs. Uruguay. For example: One point requires that Ecuador lose twice (for starters, because Uruguay, Venezuela and Colombia remain in contention). Six points means Argentina is in the top four unless Ecuador also wins twice (or Chile loses twice).

2. Argentina finishes fifth and moves into a home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf, which could be the United States, Mexico, Honduras -- but most likely Costa Rica. Argentina will be favored to advance, in this scenario, but given what it has done of late ...

3. Argentina finishes sixth, and is done until the 2014 World Cup.

The story here is that Argentina is in trouble, at all. Here are the standings in the continental qualifying.

Finishing behind Brazil; no shame there.

It's the idea of finishing sixth, behind some good-but-not-great soccer powers (Paraguay, Chile, Ecuador and, say, Uruguay) that has the soccer world puzzled.

In terms of the standings, it's simple: Argentina has lost four of its last five qualifiers, under Maradona (four of six since he was named coach, in November of last year), including a 6-1 drubbing at Bolivia and a 3-1 home spanking at the hands of Brazil. Which is why Argentina is 6-4-6 (victories, draws, defeats) and has slipped to fifth place.

Maradona has been down the road with God before. At least in his own mind. He prefers the description "hand of God" when referring to his handball that was erroneously counted as a goal against England in the 1986 World Cup semifinals. Maradona may see God's handiwork there, but we are fairly certain Providence would not show his favor by allowing you to cheat successfully.

Our sense always has been that supernatural beings are hands-off, when it comes to sports results. They leave it to simple humans to figure it out. To suggest God or Allah or Yahweh (et al) wanted you to win and saw to it that you did ... is more than a little insulting to the other sides. (God hates loves Diego and Argentina but hates Ecuador?)

Argentina will rise of fall on the merits of its players, which are obvious and well-known, or the merits of the team's coach -- which are questionable and, apparently, require divine intervention as part of the program.
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