Europe Qualifying, and Second-Place Teams

Warning! This could make your head hurt. As it did mine.

We are about to plunge into the way-more-complex-than-it-seems situation surrounding the second-place teams in Europe's nine qualifying groups.

The situation in Europe is this:

• Group winners go straight to South Africa 2010, and we will know all nine of them no later than Oct. 14. (England, Netherlands and Spain already have clinched.)
• Europe, however, has been awarded four more berths, and they will be contested by eight nations that finish second in their groups. Four home-and-home playoffs will be set up, and the four winners go to South Africa. The rules for how that system works are outlined here.
• Notice that eight second-place teams get into the playoffs. Meaning just about everyone who is gazing at second place (yes, we're lookin' at you, France) assumes they will be able to get to South Africa via this back door. But one group runner-up doesn't even make the playoffs.
• Most of the world figures that the left-out runner-up will be Norway, second in Group 9. That's quite likely, actually. And deserved, considering Norway tied Iceland. Twice. But it's not a done deal.

If you want to know why that is -- and if you're reading this blog you're probably a fan of Euro soccer -- well, read on. It might make for some heavy sledding, but someone has to do it, and this blog seems the likeliest place to take on this chore. Uh, responsibility.

If you read the rules for the second-place playoffs, you know this: Norway isn't dead. The Norwegians have 10 points, and are finished with qualifying from the five-team Group 9.

At the moment, at least two teams in all eight of the other groups have more than 10 points. So, it's over?

No. Because of this stipulation: After the second-place teams have been determined within each group, the results from their two matches with the last-place team in their group are expunged, for purposes of the nine-team second-place standings. Points from wins and ties, disappear, as well as all goals scored (or allowed).

Why? Because Norway played in the only five-team group and because the other eight groups had weak (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova) to pathetic teams (Andorra, Malta and, ugh, San Marino) at the bottom of the table. Norway didn't get to play two matches against those stiffs.

Still, even with deductions, I can figure out no scenario in which the second-place team out of four groups (3, 5, 7 and 8) finishes behind Norway in the second-place standings.

So, here are the teams that still could finish second in their groups, yet finish behind Norway in the adjusted standings. The table (below) shows their current real status relative to Norway.

(Key: MP-Matches played; W-Win; D-Draw; L-Loss; GF-Goals for; GA-Goals against; Pts-Points.)

Team----MP--W-D-L--GF-GA-Pts
Bosnia-Hz--6---3--1--2--15--7---10
Norway----8---2--4--2---9--7---10
Ireland----6---2--4--0---6--4---10
Portugal---7---2--4--1---6--5---10
Turkey-----7---2--3--2---9--8----9
Sweden-----6---2--3--1---4--3----9
N. Ireland--7---2--2--3---6--9----8
Hungary----6---2--1--3---5--5----7
Czech Rep.--6---1--3--2---5--6----6
Poland------6---1--2--3---7--11---5

Note that three of those countries have played seven matches; this means that one of those countries' last two qualifiers (Oct. 10 or Oct. 14) is against the last-place team in its group -- which is good for finishing second, but not good for finishing ahead of Norway, because that match won't count in the playoff calculations.

Also note that while some teams still have a shot at finishing second . . . . well, it's a long shot.

So, let's look at the most likely scenarios that create a second-place team that Norway would finish ahead of for the eight-team playoffs. In what I believe is the likelihood of it happening. Ranging from "unlikely" to "just talking mathematically possible, here."

1. Ireland. The Irish are sitting on 10 points. A tie in either of their final two Group 8 matches, both at home, means they finish ahead of Norway. But the first match is against Italy, which must rate as favorites. And if Ireland loses to Italy ... well, Montenegro hasn't won a match in group play, but if the Irish choke and lose again, Norway would finish ahead via goal differential. Not likely, but the most straightforward scenario.

2. Sweden. If the Swedes do no better than one tie in a road game at Denmark and a home match with Albania, the Swedes can finish second in Group 1 with 16 points -- if Hungary and Portugal tie their match, and then lose or tie vs. Denmark and Malta, respectively. That would leave Hungary and Portugal at 14 or 15 points. Sweden's second-place points total would be nine points, to Norway's 10. Far-fetched, but it doesn't involve goal-differential tweaking or San Marino getting a result. (See below.)

3. Hungary. The Hungarians can finish second in Group 1 by narrowly beating Portugal and losing at Denmark while Sweden loses to Denmark and Albania -- and Portugal defeats Malta by one goal less than Hungary beat Portugal, so that Hungary wins the goal-differential (currently one goal in Portugal's favor). Then Norway and Hungary are each at 10 points in the second-place standings, and Norway goes ahead on its plus-2 goal-differential.

4. Portugal. Can finish No. 2 in Group 1 by losing at home to Hungary by the same number of goals it wins by at Malta. Combined with Hungary losing heavily at Denmark as well as Sweden losing at Denmark and at home to Albania. Portugal and Hungary would have 16 points and Sweden 15, and Portugal would be second on goal-differential. However, Portugal would have 10 points in the second-place standings, and if it had a plus-1 goal differential, Norway goes ahead and Portugal stays home.

5. Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Bosnians lose twice in Group 5, at Estonia and home to Spain, but they still finish second if Turkey suffers even a tie versus Belgium or Armenia. If the Bosnians' aggregate in those games against Estonia and Spain is at least minus-7, they lose to Norway via goal differential. No, not at all likely. Bosnia isn't going to give up seven goals in two matches. Not even with Spain the opponent in one of them.

6. Turkey. The Turks finish second in Group 5 by tying at Belgium and winning at home over last-place Armenia while Bosnia-Herzegovina loses at Estonia and home to Spain -- and those losses are by an aggregate of eight goals or more. In that case, Turkey finishes second on goal-differential (plus 1 to Bosnia's 0), then loses to Norway on goal-differential (plus 2 to plus 1). No, not likely, either; Bosnia isn't going to give up eight goals in two matches.

7. Czech Republic. The Czechs finish second in Group 3 by defeating Poland (by no more than two goals) at home and tying Northern Ireland at home. That gives the Czechs 16 points, one more than the Ulstermen. But they/Norway would need help. Slovenia would need to lose at Slovakia and tie (or lose) at San Marino. That would leave Slovenia at 15 or 14 points. And back to the Czechs; they would have 10 points in the second-place standings, and would lose to Norway via goal differential. How likely? Massively unlikely, considering this scenario includes San Marino getting a result against visiting Slovenia when San Marino has been outscored 44-1 in nine defeats -- though it has played a pair of home matches that it lost by only two goals.

8. Northern Ireland. The Ulstermen tie the Czechs to get to 15 points in Group 3, and the Slovenes lose twice (at Slovakia, at San Marino!), the Czechs lose to Poland and the Poles lose at home to Slovakia. Then Northern Ireland is second, but has only nine points in the second-place table, to Norway's 10. How likely? Beyond "massively unlikely" because the scenario requires Slovenia to lose at San Marino.

9. Poland. The Poles defeat the Czechs by two or three goals on the road in Group 3 and tie Slovakia at home. That's 15 points. Meanwhile, Slovenia loses at Slovakia and San Marino, and the Czechs win at home over Northern Ireland. The Czechs also have 15 points, but if their loss to Poland was heavy enough and their victory over Northern Ireland slight enough, Poland could finish ahead via goal differential. The Czechs currently lead them, 9-8. However, Poland would have only nine points in the second-place standings, to Norway's 10. I'm calling this the longest shot of all, because not only does it involve San Marino beating Slovenia, it calls for the Poles to suddenly start playing well.

Wasn't that edifying? Only took me, like, three hours. Three hours of my life I'll never get back.

The point, to reinforce, is that Norway isn't dead, despite how it looks in the standings. But the most likely train of events, yes, has Norway left out of the second-place playoffs. Read more!

So, What Is China's Excuse?

Wow. Now we have opened up a can of worms. Actually, make that a barrel of worms. A silo of worms.

China is awful in soccer. The casual soccer fan knows that.

But most of us don't know how much China cares that it is awful, how keenly aware it is of that awful-ness, and how embarrassed, ashamed, mortified (we could keep going, but that's enough for now) the nation feels about it.

This is the second of what is going to be a short series on why some of the planet's most populous nations are shrimps in the zoology of global soccer. We looked at India a few days ago.

And now China.

Again, wow. We get a sense that only a fraction of China's soccer-related angst has been translated into English ... and that what we hear or see on the topic, in the West, barely begins to plumb the depths of the national anxiety and subsequent debate.

How deep are those depths? Well, one Chinese scholar has suggested that the national team's incompetence could lead to political upheaval. He was not joking.

First, let's quantify how bad China is.

1. China is the world's most populous nation, with some 1.3 billion people, enjoys a booming economy and it is genuinely sports-mad, having reveled in winning the most gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Yet it is ranked 107th in the world in soccer.

Behind desperately poor African countries such as Guinea (55), Congo (79) and Mozambique (84); behind countries with microscopic populations, like Latvia (55), Bahrain (64) and Iceland (96); behind countries that aren't really countries, such as Scotland (30), Northern Ireland (31) and Wales (67); behind countries that were invented just in the past few years, such as Macedonia (56), Moldova (88) and Montenegro (89); behind countries wracked by war and/or political unrest, such as Iran (60), Sudan (96) and Iraq (98).

2. China has qualified for the World Cup finals only once, in 2002. It went out without scoring a goal.

3. China was eliminated in the second round of Asia qualifying for the 2010 World Cup ... by Iraq. War-torn, sectionally fragmented Iraq.

4. China lost all three matches in the 2008 Olympics, failing to salvage even a tie when playing on its home soil.

That shoddy Olympics performance was documented in this New York Times story, which notes that "soccer may be the sport the Chinese care about above all else, but it is also the one that most frustrates and disappoints them," adding that "the men's national and Olympic teams are the subject of much scorn, shame and hand-wringing."

The most interesting take on China and its soccer team came in a Washington Post op-ed piece written by a Chinese national who teaches history at Kalamazoo College in the U.S. state of Michigan.

In the piece, written before the 2008 Olympics, Xu Guoqi suggests up to 700 million Chinese watched the 2006 World Cup, which China failed to qualify for. "They weren't happy," Xi wrote.

Of the 2010 qualifying ouster at the hands of Iraq (which occurred he 2008), he writes, "Such losses have not only plunged many Chinese into the sort of depression that only a Chicago Cubs fan could understand. They have also prompted doubts about Chinese manhood, undermined the country's vaunted can-do spirit and sparked agonized questions about our politics, culture and society -- even about what it means to be Chinese. For the regime in Beijing, success at the Olympics may demonstrate China's superiority, but for the country's long-suffering soccer fans, the only real yardstick of greatness is a victory in the World Cup."

He also touched on numerous suggested explanations of China's soccer incompetence. For example ...

--Only a tiny fraction of China's enormous population plays sports, including soccer.

--China attempts to bring to the soccer field the same training techniques it employs for individual sports, at which it is so successful. Mind-numbing repetition and sheer exertion clearly can mean victory in what are sometimes referred to as the "robotic" sports -- such as diving and gymnastics. But that approach doesn't translate into success in a free-flowing game like soccer.

--A creaky, top-down system that starts with the "hidebound" Chinese communist party.

--Endemic corruption in Chinese soccer, from club to national team.

--Modern Chinese society's rejection of "communal values" in what has turned into a dog-eat-dog system. "These days everybody wants to be the boss, and nobody wants to be the goalie," Xu writes.

The reason why soccer failures generate so much anxiety in China, the writer suggests, is that China expects to be the best at everything ... and there is no easy way to explain away these shocking failures on the pitch. And it comes just as regional rivals Japan and South Korea have qualified, again, for the World Cup ... and even xenophobic, paranoid North Korea has clinched a berth at South Africa 2010.

Writes Xu: "The World Cup strikes Chinese as the most meritocratic, the most (gasp!) democratic, of competitions. Every nation, rich or poor, strong or small, has a real shot at winning. No country or regime, regardless of its wealth or power, can manufacture a victory the way that, say, East Germany used to during those dreary Cold War-era Olympic Games. On the soccer field, China is forced to test itself against the family of nations. It's social Darwinism as sport. No wonder millions of Chinese fans link soccer to their national sense of honor."

So, what is China's excuse for its soccer incompetence?

Let's boil it down as best we can. A country that loves sports but doesn't really play them; a heavily individualistic population that has trouble with the basic concepts of team sports; a badly run and probably corrupt federation; a government not open to transparency or to taking responsibility for failure.

At any rate, China must be considered the biggest underachiever in the history of global soccer. Because, unlike India, which doesn't really care about soccer ... China cares, and quite deeply. But still can't figure out how to beat Iraq. Read more!

Yes, Argentina: You Can Change a Coach

As the days tick down to the two final qualifying dates for most nations, Oct. 10 and 14, Argentina still has Diego Maradona as its coach. Despite four defeats in Argentina's last five qualifiers. Despite Maradona spending this week in a "spa" in northern Italy, allegedly to lose weight.

But it's not too late to change.

Or, at least, that's the way another struggling World Cup contender -- Costa Rica -- is approaching things.

After three consecutive defeats by an aggregate score of 8-0, the Ticos fired Rodrigo Kenton and have hired Rene Samoes, a Brazilian who took Jamaica to the 1998 World Cup.

Samoes has three weeks to change the lineup (or chemistry or mind-set) of the Costa Rican team. The Ticos were in fine shape, halfway through the Concacaf qualifying schedule, leading the hexagonal with 12 points.

Then came defeats at Honduras (4-0), home to Mexico (3-0) and at El Salvador (1-0). Kenton was shown the door on Monday.

Costa Rica sits fourth in the Concacaf standings but stills controls its destiny; victories at home against Trinidad & Tobago and at the United States would give it 18 points and guarantee it a top-three finish -- and an automatic berth at South Africa 2010.

Argentina doesn't quite control its fate for one of the four automatic berths set aside for South America. Even with victories over Peru and at Uruguay, it might not catch fourth-place Ecuador -- though it probably would.

However, two victories would assure it of a fifth-place finish, and one more shot at getting to South Africa, in a home-and-home playoff vs. the No. 4 team in Concacaf. Which, at the moment, is Costa Rica. Home of a pro-active federation. As opposed to Argentina, which seems confused and passive as its former national superstar leads it into the wilderness.

If it comes to a playoff with Costa Rica, Argentina might wish it had a real coach -- and not a confused figurehead with a famous name -- with a berth in South Africa on the line.
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So, What Is India's Excuse?

This is the flip side of the previous post, about countries with tiny populations getting to the World Cup.

Let's spend a bit of time, in the next few posts, contemplating why several countries with enormous populations not only won't be making the World Cup, they didn't get close.

Take India. Please.

A country with 1.17 billion people went out in the first round of Asian qualifying for South Africa 2010. India lost a home-and-home series with Lebanon by an aggregate of 6-3. That would be the same Lebanon that has been racked, off and on, by internal violence the past few years. Yet India was swamped by the Lebanese, and it wasn't an upset. Lebanon was seeded 13 from among 43 Asian nations; India was seeded No. 28. Just behind the Maldives, just ahead of Singapore.

How it that possible? The subject is a big one, and we won't get to the bottom of it here, but we can skim over the salient points.

--Soccer is not the national game. That would be cricket, a sport at which India is among the world's elite. Field hockey, despite a decline in interest, probably ranks ahead of soccer, too. Two authors look at the phenomenon in a book entitled "Goalless: The Story of a Unique Footballing Nation" ... and here is a link to a review of that book.

--A perception that Indians are not interested in a sport in which they are awful. India is 149th in the world in the most recent FIFA rankings.

--Television. In this blog post, a writer from India suggests that successes in cricket and failures in soccer occurred at a critical point in India's television history, in the early 1980s, and that the subsequent TV-generated reinforcement boosted cricket and disappointment crippled soccer.

--A bad and ineffectual domestic soccer league. The National Football League (the other NFL, that is) features teams that play to small crowds and uses players who are, as one local critic put it, "third-tier Nigerians and fourth-tier Brazilians." The local league, then, does little or nothing to foster enthusiasm for the game.

--A thoroughly inept national soccer federation. The results would seem to be enough to bear out this contention, but in this rather unwieldy essay, the author seems to suggest India, as a country, does a poor job of organizing sports of any sort. (Having seen Indian track athletes finish far behind in preliminary heats at the Olympics, I can vouch for Indian failures in the Olympic movement, at the least.)

Twenty or 30 years ago, it was possible to argue that India's ineptitude on the athletic field was a function of its grinding poverty. But now, with estimates that as many as 300 million Indians recently have climbed into the middle class, that "too poor to play" analysis seems inoperable.

For whatever reason, or reasons, India is not producing elite players. Check this wikipedia entry on Baichung Bhutia, considered the best Indian soccer player of the past generation. Bhutia, however, has played very little outside India, and when he went to England to try his luck with third-tier club Bury ... he didn't exactly shine, scoring three goals in three seasons. Then went back to India.

What makes India and soccer a more perplexing issue are claims that India actually was semi-competent in the sport a half-century ago. Its "golden age" typically is described as having occurred in the 1950s and 1960s. That would include gold medals in soccer at the Asian Games of 1951 and 1962, and a runner-up finish (to Israel) in the Asian Football Confederation championship of 1964.

India has never done anything to qualify for a World Cup, though it was invited to the 1950 World Cup when its regional opponents decided not to field teams. However, FIFA required Indian players to wear shoes, and India pulled out of the 1950 World Cup because, apparently, several of its players insisted on playing barefoot.

Thus, India is perhaps the only country in soccer history to lose interest in the sport. Several countries came late to the sport -- the United States and Japan among the most prominent -- but India stands almost alone among countries that were at least passably competent once upon a time ... and now are not.

And no one seems to care. Which probably is the bottom line of the entire discussion.
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In Praise of the Little Countries

Generally speaking, the bigger your population, the bigger the pool of world-class athletes, the better your chances of qualifying for the World Cup finals.

Makes sense, yes?

But raw population is by no means an indicator of world-level soccer success. If it were, China would have made more than one World Cup. India would have made one. Any one.

Many countries with a tiny fraction of China's population -- or the United States or Indonesia, for that matter -- are prime contenders to be in South Africa next June.

Using FIFA qualifying standings and wikipedia world population statistics, let's determine at the 10 smallest countries -- from lightly populated to least-populated -- who have clinched a berth at South Africa 2010 or remain solidly in contention to do so.

The little contenders, with population and (in parantheses) their global population rank:

10. Paraguay, 6,350,000 (103). We don't need to talk about Paraguay's chances, because Paraguay is one of only 11 countries already qualified for South Africa 2010. And, of course, the smallest in population in the tournament. So far.

9. Slovakia, 5,413,000 (111). What was once the lower half of Czechslovakia is now holding the upper hand in Europe's Group 3. All Slovakia needs is a tie at home, Oct. 10, vs. Slovenia, to clinch first place and punch its ticket to South Africa -- and gain its first World Cup finals as an indepedent country.

8. Costa Rica, 4,435,000 (118). Two weeks ago, the Ticos looked likely to secure one of the three guaranteed World Cup berths out of Concacaf, but a pair of defeats dropped them to fourth in the regional standings. That's disturbing in the little Central American country, considering that the Ticos were in first place before Sept. 5. But even a fourth-place finish is enough to keep them alive for a place in South Africa -- via a home-and-home playoff with South America's No. 5 team. Note: Costa Rica has no military, perhaps freeing up more guys to play soccer.

7. Croatia, 4,435,000 (119). The semifinalist from France 1998 is second in Europe Group 6, and can clinch second place -- and almost a certain slot in the playoffs for Europe's final four berths at South Africa -- with a victory at Kazakhstan on Oct. 14.

6. Ireland, 4,422,000 (120). The Emerald Isle (well, minus Northern Ireland, which competes on its own) is a World Cup overachiever, having made three of the past five finals. Ireland can clinch second place in Europe Group 8 with a victory at home vs. Italy (unlikely) on Oct. 10, or vs. Montenegro (quite likely) on Oct. 14. FYI: Ireland's current population is roughly equal to the number of immigrants it has sent to the United States, alone.

5. Uruguay, 3,361,000 (132). Historically, the most successful of the Little People, with two World Cup championships (1930, 1950) on its resume -- despite having less than 10 percent of the population of the U.S. state of California. Uruguay is one point behind Argentina for fifth place in the South America standings, which would yield a playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf, and two points behind Ecuador for fourth place and a guaranteed slot at South Africa. Uruguay controls its destiny; it plays at Ecuador on Oct. 10 and is home to Argentina on Oct. 14.

4. Latvia, 2,257,000 (141). The smallest of the Baltic countries, both in size and population, is very much alive in Europe Group 2, tied with Greece for second place. The Letts would lead the group had they been able to hold either of two leads in a home match against Switzerland on Sept. 9. It finished 2-2. Latvia needs a point from a road match at Greece on Oct. 10 to finish second and get in the Europe second-place playoffs.

3. Slovenia, 2,045,000 (145). The smallest splinter to emerge from the breakup of the former Yugoslavia is well-positioned to finish at least second in Europe Group 3. The Slovenes could even win the group with a victory at Slovakia, and a victory at San Marino (as close to a certainty as there is in FIFA) together with a loss by the Slovaks at Poland. At the least, the three points from the San Marino match should get Slovenia second place and probably a berth in the four home-and-home pairings to determine the final four European teams that go to South Africa.

2. Gabon, 1,475,000 (149). A small West African country best known for lush scenery and exotic wild life, until this qualifying cycle. Two weeks ago, Gabon looked in good shape to make the Word Cup, but successive losses to Cameroon (pop. 19.5 million) have damaged Gabon's hopes of winning Africa Group A (and qualifying). It remains doable, but it's not the way to bet.

1. Bahrain, 791,000 (159). Bahrain is an oil-rich island in The Gulf, just offshore from the Arabian Peninsula, with a population about 2 percent as large as the city of Tokyo. And Bahrain is 180 minutes away from being the smallest country -- in area as well as population -- to qualify for a World Cup finals. Bahrain has been punching above its weight all along, finishing fifth in Asia qualifying. Now it has a home-and-home with New Zealand, Oceania champion, to see who goes to South Africa 2010, and rates as a slight favorite. If you root for the littlest guy, Bahrain is your ultimate side. Read more!

Maradona in Clinic in Italy to 'Lose Weight'

This isn't good for Argentina, no matter how it turns out. You don't want your national coach locked away in a "spa" for several days (or weeks?) less than a month ahead of two final and crucial World Cup qualifiers. No matter what it is he's trying to overcome -- weight gain, bad nerves ... drugs.

But there goes Diego Maradona, arguably the most inept coach in World Cup qualifying, considering Argentina's results under his stewardship and the talent available.

Reuters is reporting that Maradona is in a facility ("clinic" is so judgmental, don't you think?) in Northern Italy ... to lose five kilos -- or about 11 pounds.

Or is that monkey on his back something more sinister than an excess of avoirdupois?

Maradona has a history of drug abuse. It seems as if it almost killed him, a time or two. And we don't have to have a Ph.D in psychology to wonder if the enormous pressures that must be coming down on him, in Argentina, as the national team teeters on the brink of missing South Africa 2010 ... well, you wonder if that pressure might prompt him to find some consolation in chemicals he has abused in the past.

Apparently, we're not the only ones wondering about that.

So, today, we have a story that quotes his doctor as saying Maradona has not relapsed into drugs. Which we believe ... almost not at all.

Doesn't it seem as if dropping those 10-11 pounds could wait till after the Oct. 10 qualifier with Peru and the Oct. 14 match at Uruguay to go to a Fat Farm? Absolutely. And you don't need to go to northern Italy to escape Argentine fans and media. Has to be someplace right there in the country where a guy can sit on a beach (it's still summer, down there), turn off the cell phone, avoid newspapers and TV, instruct your security team to keep people away ... and chill out.

The upshot of this?

Diego must go. If he is at a point where he needs professional help right this minute ... it's time for Argentina to go to Plan B for these final two matches. Get a new coach. Admit Maradona was a mistake. And it's proving harmful both to him and Argentinian football.

It's late. But it's not too late.

Veteran coach Carlos Bilardo, who led Argentina from 1983 through the 1990 World Cup, already is with the team in a lesser capacity. His team won the 1986 World Cup and was runner-up in 1990. He could take over tomorrow. Bora Milutinovic is a phone call away. Leo Beenhaaker is out of work. Etc.

Point is, Argentina presumably can find a couple of dozen (make that a couple of hundred) coaches better suited than Diego Maradona to coaching Argentina in these last two qualifiers. Let Maradona extend his stay in northern Italy for as long as he wants. To lose some weight ... or beat some jones.

It will be better for everyone connected to Argentine soccer. Read more!

Hot Air: Talking Up England

I don't live in England, nor do I see English newspapers regularly, but there must be something really interesting, on a sociological level, going on there.

Despite mountains of evidence that indicate England is, at best, a mid-level power in international soccer, England and the English are always eager to proclaim that "this time it's different" and that the upcoming competition is going to be the one where they cover themselves in glory. Instead of excuses.

England qualified for South Africa 2010 a week ago, and already the stories are coming through about how England is a contender, or a favorite or the favorite to win the thing.

To wit:

Here is a Reuters story on Spanish national Xabi Hernandez allegedly touting the English as favorites to win the 2010 World Cup. At least, that's how it's being spun in the Johannesburg Sunday Times and by Reuters -- originally an English company and still very England-centric.

In fact, Xabi's brief remarks (and remarks always seem to be brief, in British journalism) are mostly about how he thinks Spain has a good shot at winning. Oh, and the English are pretty good and he respects the team's individual (my emphasis) quality of English players. As opposed to the collective?

And he likes Ivory Coast, too, and if Ivory Coast wins the World Cup, I'll sell my piano keys.

Then there is this story, from AFP (Agence France-Presse) featuring England coach Fabio Capella, who says his goal for his team is the championship match. At the least. He's not saying England will win it, but anything short of the final ... not acceptable.

What is the source of all this optimism? Apparently a nice run through Europe qualifying Group 6, which includes only one other serious soccer nation, Croatia. Unless you count Ukraine, and I don't. England is 8-0 so far. Grand. Andorra and Kazakhstan and Belarus couldn't qualify out of Concacaf, but those three represent five of England's eight victories.

Let's not forget England's international soccer history -- which English fans are keen to do. "It's about the past, it means nothing to this team, blah, blah, blah ..." but something basic and systemic is going on when the nation with the world's elite professional league has performed so abysmally on the big stages.

--England invented the game, and has the EPL, but it has won the World Cup once. O-n-c-e. In 1966. When the World Cup was in England. Since then, England has reached the semifinals of the World Cup only once, and didn't qualify at all three times. In the six other World Cup, England got to the quarterfinals four times ... and then crashed out. We're not talking about near misses here, that is.

--England never has won the Euro Cup. It didn't attempt to qualify in 1960, and since then it has two semifinals apperances, the most recent being in 1996 -- when it lost in the semis in England.

The English didn't even qualify for the 2008 edition of the event. And it went out of the most recent World Cup in the quarters. So, now, a team with lots and lots of the same guys who were part of those teams ... is going to win in South Africa?

Remember, no European team ever has won a World Cup outside of Europe. And England has won only once, and that was when the final was played in London.

We'll get excited about the English -- and start throwing around terms like "favorites" -- when they actually do something again. For now, England is mostly hype and hot air. And the real favorites are the usual suspects who have shown the guile and talent to win at the international level -- Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina (if it gets a real coach), and maybe Spain and the Netherlands.

Anyway, I find fascinating the self-delusion that English soccer fans apparently embrace. How many times do The Three Lions have to fall short before a sense that "maybe we're not really good at this" penetrates into the collective? However many times, we're not there yet, apparently.
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