Sunday, August 9, 2009

Qualifier preview: Costa Rica at Honduras

This is Game 2 of our four-part series of previews leading up to Wednesday, the day when eight World Cup qualifying matches are played.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras, in the steamy port city of San Pedro Sula.

This is a sort of Zero Hour for the Hondurans, who stand third in the Concacaf table midway through the qualifying process. To keep their slight lead over fourth-place Mexico, Honduras needs to win at home against the group-leading Ticos.

The top three finishers in the Concacaf tournament go to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup.

The No. 4 finisher goes into a home-and-home playoff with the No. 5 team out of South America, and Honduras will be an underdog to advance over whomever that No. 5 team is.

So, yes, the Hondurans want to stay ahead of Mexico -- and could even move into second place if the U.S. loses to Mexico earlier Wednesday, and would then trail table-leading Costa Rica by only two points.

But a defeat, at home ...

A defeat, at home ... could be ruinous for the Hondurans, who must still play at Mexico and El Salvador. While a road victory by the Ticos would all but put them into the 2010 World Cup.

To watch the two squads warm up is to like the Catrachos, as the Hondurans are known. They clearly are the bigger and more physical side, and they appear to have an edge in speed, too.

They have quality attacking players in enough depth -- Carlos Costly, Carlos Pavon, Tottenham-based midfielder Wilson Palacios, Parma-based midfielder (and free-kick specialist) Julio "Rambo" de Leon, FC Toronto standout Amado Guevara and even Gold Cup revelation George Welcome -- that they should be able to withstand the absence of high-profile striker David Suazo (of Inter Milan), who will miss the match with a leg injury.

Costa Rica, often a more elegant and cohesive side, won at home against Honduras, 2-0, back in February, on a pair of second-half goals from forward Andy Furtado.

But the Ticos are not nearly as formidable away from their home in San Jose, having lost 2-0 at Mexico and winning only 3-2 at bottom-of-the-table Trinidad & Tobago. Also, they rarely win on Honduran soil, and what has been such a promising start to qualifying could founder if they can't pick up another point or three in their three remaining road games -- against Honduras, El Salvador and the United States.

Walter Centeno, captain and midfielder, has been Costa Rica's best player so far. But the Ticos also have gotten lots of offense from playmaking midfielder Celso Borges and forward Bryan Ruiz.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras is considered the best rivalry in Central America. Costa Rica has had slightly the better of it, leading the series 19-14-16 and, more importantly, has reached the World Cup finals three times (1990, 2002, 2006) since Honduras made its one and only appearance, in 1982.

Hondurans have made a greater impact on the international club scene, but the Catrachos keep finding themselves looking up at the Ticos in the standings. They can begin to rectify that issue on Wednesday.

Former Honduras coach Jose de la Paz, who led the 1982 Catrachos to the World Cup finals in Spain, is confident of Honduran victory.

"Honduras are an experienced side and should beat Costa Rica, while they've only beaten us once at home in the last 40 years or so," said De la Paz, according to fifa.com. "I think that we'll win the game because we've got a better team and will have the fans behind us, which has been decisive in the past. If you go through each team one by one, there's no doubt that the Honduran players are better."
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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Qualifier preview: Germany at Azerbaijan

Eight World Cup qualifying matches are scheduled for Aug. 12 -- next Wednesday, that is -- and we are going to take a closer look at four of those matches in our next four entries on this site.

Normally, Germany and Azerbaijan wouldn't be the sort of match that could aspire to have the word "crucial" associated with it. The Germans are 5-0-1 so far in Europe's Group 4, good for 16 points and the group lead. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is 0-4-1, good for 1 point, and is completely out of contention.

But, but ... this is the sort of "trap" game that could cost Germany a precious point -- or three -- as it attempts to outpace Russia atop Group 4 -- and Russia is only one point back, with a 5-1-0 mark, the one defeat coming against Germany, 2-1, at Dortmund last October. Russia gets a return match this October, and the Germans don't want Russia to be able to take the group lead with a home victory.

Remember ...

... only the winners of Europe's nine groups clinch berths in South Africa 2010. The eight best second-place finishers are chucked into a home-and-home pair of matches against another second-place team, and only four will survive that roulette spin to go to the World Cup final.

Thus, the difference between finishing first and finishing second in European qualifying is enormous, and every point is crucial. Especially points accrued in away games -- and this is Germany's last on the road, aside from the trip to Russia.

Why shouldn't Azerbaijan be easy pickings? The Azeris haven't managed so much as a goal in five matches, including a scoreless draw against little Liechtenstein.

But consider:

--The Azeris have conceded a mere five goals in their five matches, and never more than one -- aside from a 2-0 defeat vs. Russia at Moscow, back in March.

--Azerbaijan, which lies on the west coast of the Caspian Sea, is the most distant country in UEFA, aside from neighboring Kazakhstan. It is more than 2,000 air miles from Frankfurt to Baku, and that is a long trip, indeed, for Western European players, and into an environment that is far more like the Middle East or Asia than the tidy and well-ordered Europe that Germany's players know.

--The Azeris are coached by German native Berti Vogts, who led Germany to the 1996 Euro Cup championship in England (and later coached Scotland, Kuwait, Nigeria with less success). Vogts certainly understands German football and German players, and that could make for a tougher time, when the Germans are far from home.

Germany will count on its strike force of Michael Ballack, who is recovering from a toe fracture suffered during Chelsea's preseason tour of the United States; Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski to come up with that one goal that could keep the Germans a step ahead of the Russians.

The Azeris are not well known in the West. Rashad Sadigov, who last season played for an also-ran in Turkey's top league, is perhaps their most dangerous attacking player. Farhad Valiyev was in goal for Azerbaijan in its most recent qualifier, a 1-0 home loss to Wales in June. In that Wales game, commentators noted that the match was very rough. The Germans are no shrinking violets, but if a game gets dirty, odd things are even more likely to happen.

This has the feel of a 1-0 score to it, and the Germans will be looking for that one goal early to try to dampen the enthusiasm of the home crowd. If the game is 0-0 for any length of time, well, the atmosphere could become electric and the Azeris could come to believe they are one lucky strike away from making history by upsetting one of the globe's elite sides and, perhaps, turning the course of qualifying in Group 4.
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Friday, August 7, 2009

Race Remains a Big Issue in South Africa

Even Americans, who generally are intellectually challenged when it comes to international relations, know that South Africa has race issues.

Well, those race issues haven't gone away with the end of the "apartheid" system that kept the minority whites in control of the government from 1948-94. The award of the 2010 World Cup hasn't made things all hunky-dory, either.

Earlier this week, Julius Malema, leader of the African National Congress Youth League, got lots of attention for complaining that the ANC-run government has "too many minorities" in the financial sector.

"Minorities," in South Africa, being non-blacks.

The Johannesburg Sunday Times, my favorite newspaper in South Africa (at least, from evaluating Web sites), did a story about Malema's comments, and days later it remains the "most popular" story on the site.

But the Times put a headline on the story that would not pass political-correctness muster, in the U.S.

"Too many Indians, chief" is the Web headline. Apparently a reference intended to make the paper's English-speaking readers think of American Indians. (And perhaps the old "too many chiefs, not enough Indians" idiom.) When, actually, the Indians involved in the story appear to have ancestral ties to India, the country. And the other minorities appear to be of European origin, just by guessing from their surnames.

The gist of the story:
That the ANC Youth League leader believes South Africa president Jacob Zuma is perpetuating anti-black-African stereotypes by putting non-blacks into positions of authority in the business/finance part of his government. While giving all the security-related government positions to black South Africans.

The upshot: That the black president of South Africa is contributing to the perception that black Africans can handle guns ... but not bank accounts.

What is just as interesting as the finance/security aspect of things ... is that the head of a major ANC political arm can complain about "too many minorities" in the government -- and thatit is considered a fair and proper topic for discussion. Compare that to the U.S., where not much of anyone outside the Ku Klux Klan would complain in a public forum about "too many minorities" in the government. And, note, that it is the South African government that is on the defensive here, not the ANC Youth League boss.

The point of this being, on this blog, that race is a major, major issue in South Africa, and we need to keep that in mind to even begin to understand the nation that will hold the 2010 World Cup.
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Thursday, August 6, 2009

Terror Threats and the 2010 World Cup

Since Munich 1972, organizers of any major sports events have to prepare for this: Terrorist acts that interrupt/ruin/scar forever their event.

Ahead of the 2010 World Cup, South African authorities say they are preparing for terror threats. Even though Al Qaeda, etc., hasn't been known to act on South African territory, the police spokesman spoke about visiting teams/fans that could "import the threat of a terrorism attack" into the country.

To wit: The United States and England ...
which have been military active in the Middle East and have been targeted by terror attacks in the past.

While the idea of a large-scale, 9/11-style attack is sobering ... the story linked (above) concedes that the more real and present danger is generic crime and violence in South Africa. The story notes that 50 people are murdered every day in South Africa, a rate that outstrips the United States -- even though the U.S., famous for its gun violence, has more than six times South Africa's population.

Anyway, yes, there is a need to be prepared. And that means looking for bombs and bombers ... even when the odds of a visiting Brit or Yank being mugged or shot are far higher.
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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

South Africa Q&A with Landon Donovan

Landon Donovan, the U.S. international midfielder, was in South Africa for nearly all of June while playing with the team that finished second, to Brazil, in the Confederations Cup -- a sort of test tournament for the 2010 World Cup.

I was hoping to get some input on this blog from someone who was there, for the Confed Cup, and Landon graciously responded to a set of questions I sent to him.

My queries, and his replies:

Question: What most impressed you about the handling of the Confederations Cup?

Answer: I think a lot of us didn't know what to expect and, given all the rumors we had heard, we were expecting the worst. However, I was completely impressed with the organization of the event and didn't have any complaints.

Q: What is most memorable South African part of the event? That is, something about the host country and not about the matches you and the U.S. played.

A: Going on a Nature Ride was something I will never forget. It's one thing to go to a zoo in America and see these animals, but it's a whole other thing to see them interacting in their natural environment.

Q: The horns, the vuvuzelas. Have an opinion on them?

A: It's part of their soccer culture and we need to accept that. They were a little annoying at first but we got used to them as the tournament went on.

Q: What did you see that the organizers could do better, next summer?

A: I honestly didn't have any complaints. The people were friendly, competent, and helpful.

Q: Do you feel as if you have a good sense of the country? Did you see any of the poorer parts of the country? Can you compare South Africa to any place on the planet you've been before?

A: South Africa is incomparable to anywhere I've ever been. There were certainly some "poorer" places but the people were very happy and I really enjoyed being there.

Q: Do you have any sense about whether South Africa fans like Americans or the U.S. team?

A: I think we grew on the South African people as we got deeper into the tournament. They seemed to like us from the day we got there and we were very friendly with the people throughout.

Q: If the weather next summer is similar (cool, a little wet), what might that mean for the competition?

A: It will be interesting to have a World Cup in cold weather. The players actually prefer it because it makes the game faster. Hopefully it doesn't snow ...

Q: How much do U.S. players know about South Africa and its history? Was there a sense of anything special going on there ... or was it just another tournament?

A: It's hard to experience their culture and history the way we would like to because we are confined to the hotel and practice fields for most of the time. Hopefully after the World Cup we can spend some time learning more.
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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Becks Goal: Securing a Spot with England?

David Beckham had a very nice free kick goal against Barcelona at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on Saturday, and I wonder if that one play might be enough to get him to the 2010 World Cup.

Could be.

Very few players can do what Beckham did with that ball, driving it from about 25 yards out, outside the circle at the top of the box, and over a half-dozen-man wall ... but with enough overspin that the ball seemed to dive -- while swerving left -- and past Barcelona goalkeeper Jose Manuel Pinto and into the siding of the net.

That sort of deadball threat
-- and execution -- against a team as good as Barcelona certainly will be seen by England coach Fabio Capello and likely will bring Beckham in for the next two England matches in World Cup qualifying ... and maybe into the team for South Africa 2010. (England is close to clinching first place in its group.) I mean, even if the guy can't do much of anything else (defend, score in the run of play, etc.), that sort of active dead-ball threat is huge.

Organizers must hope Becks shows up in South Africa. Considering his name-recognition, etc. (Even if England in any competition means a fair chance of their loutish fans showing up and wrecking a town or three.)

Anyway, yeah. Socoring that goal, against Barcelona, with 93,000 fans watching ... that's the kind of pressure execution that might get a guy a berth in the World Cup. And that was the first thought that popped into my head as the ball settled into the back of the next.

Barcelona ultimately won the club friendly over Beckham and his temporary club team, the Los Angeles Galaxy, 2-1.
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Monday, August 3, 2009

World Cup Favorites, 310 Days Out

About six weeks ago, Brazil midfielder Kaka happened to drop the name of "England" into a discussion about favorites to win the 2010 World Cup, and of course the English media spotted it immediately.

The self-styled Masters of the Game always fancy themselves favorites to win the Big Event -- sometimes right up to the moment when they don't even qualify for it, as in 1994, 1978 and 1974.

Anyway, Kaka has his list of favorites, 310 days out.

But we also have our own. We will pick five, in the order of likelihood of winning. (The odds are our own, and not how the gambling public will place its bets.)

1. Brazil, 2-1 (When the World Cup is played outside Europe, Brazil has to be the favorite.)

2. Spain, 5-2 (Yeah, winning the Euro 2008 title was nice, and Spain has been rolling for several years now -- that Confederations Cup loss to the United States, notwithstanding -- but Espana has a long history of collapsing in World Cups, so we can't consider it "most likely" to win in South Africa.)

3. Germany 4-1 (Always rises to the occasion for the big tournaments. Always mentally tough and in marvelous physical condition.)

4. Italy, 6-1 (Defending champs looked old and shaky in the Confederations Cup, but no one is more cynically brilliant at milking results out of World Cup than the Azzurri.)

5. Netherlands, 10-1 (Already has qualified, and the usual collection of great attacking players could be ready to win their first World Cup.)

Darkhorses:

6. Argentina, 12-1. (First, that dope Diego Maradona has to get Argentina into the tournament. Maybe the country can find a real coach, and if it does, these odds will go down, because if Brazil doesn't win it, and the Euros freak out at playing in Africa, Argentina is the logical choice to take it all.

7. France, 12-1. (Again, they have to qualify first, but this is a side that has played with confidence and skill for most of the past decade and change -- aside from that meltdown in 2002.)

8. Ivory Coast, 15-1. (We suspect at least one African team is going to make a deep run into the tournament, and this is our choice.)

And what of England?

Any side that can't seem to find a competent second forward to pair with Wayne Rooney (and no, Peter "The Stork" Crouch doesn't count) and apparently will start creaky ol' David Beckham at right mid ... well, that's not a real contender.
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