Apparently, South Africa organizers are short of the number of hotel rooms the country needs to handle visitors arriving for the World Cup ...
To the tune of 15,000 rooms.
That's quite a shortfall. That's a lot of tourists roaming the streets, or sleeping in train stations, or ending up in third-rate accommodations.
Anyway, the ever-helpful Sepp Blatter, FIFA president, has suggested cruise ships could help solve the problem.
And yes, cruise ships sometimes do help. They were used to augment hotel rooms at Super Bowl XXXIX in Jacksonville, in 2005; and for the Barcelona Olympics, in 1992.
The biggest drawback for South Africa 2010 is that only two of the 10 World Cup venues -- Durban and Port Elizabeth -- have the sort of docking facilities a cruise ship would need to be of any help to tourists.
So, if you want to see a game in Johannesburg, or Rustenburg, Pretoria, Bloemfontain -- and even Cape Town, apparently -- it doesn't do you much good to be docked in Port Elizabeth or Durban, hundreds of miles away from where you need to be.
It would be rather like docking in San Francisco and planning to see a match in Phoenix later in the day. You'd still have lots of logistics ahead of you.
Read more!
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Monday, July 27, 2009
President Obama and the World Cup
FIFA president Sepp Blatter visited the White House today, and the talk was of World Cups. Both current and future.
(Here is a link to the news story.)
Both the 2010 edition, to which American president Barack Obama has, again, been invited ...
And for the 2018 or 2022 editions, for which Obama did a bit of lobbying for the U.S. as host country.
First, the 2010 WC in South Africa. It is the first World Cup in Africa, and it seems somehow incumbent on the first black U.S. president to make an appearance. We suspect he will, unless some serious international craziness is going down.
Obama's connection to Africa is quite direct. Unlike most African-Americans, whose African heritage includes ancestors who came to the United States, as slaves, 100, 200, even 300 years ago, Obama's father was born in Kenya.
So, yes, he will go to South Africa, if at all possible.
Now, about the 2018 or 2022 World Cup.
2014 is already decided; it is going to Brazil, and South America deserves it. Considering South American sides have won nine of the 18 World Cups played so far, yet haven't hosted one since 1978 (Argentina).
But after that ...
It would make sense for FIFA to bring the event back to the States. The 1994 World Cup was here, and it was an enormous success. It remains the World Cup record-holder for attendance, and by a wide margin, because the U.S. has so many enormous venues. And filled them. Repeatedly. The U.S. also has significant immigrant populations from just about any country you can name, so even if fans don't travel from the other side of the world ... they would have plenty of fans already in the States.
The 1994 World Cup also served as a jumpstart for the American domestic league that has done much to advance the game here.
It's hard to imagine a World Cup here being a bad idea. The infrastructure is pretty much here (though it's hard to travel from one end of the country to the other, unlike a compact Euro country) ... the experience is here ... the communications and technology are here ... and the U.S. remains a quite-not-tapped market. Maybe soccer never catches American football, baseball and basketball as one of the Big Three sports ... but it could get closer, and a World Cup on these shores could go a long way toward making that happen.
We shall see. In theory, it should be time, in 2018, for a return to North America. it will have been 24 years since 1994. But it appears as if FIFA is planning to go back to Europe in 2018, probably to England.
So, 2022. Shall we pencil it into our datebook? Read more!
(Here is a link to the news story.)
Both the 2010 edition, to which American president Barack Obama has, again, been invited ...
And for the 2018 or 2022 editions, for which Obama did a bit of lobbying for the U.S. as host country.
First, the 2010 WC in South Africa. It is the first World Cup in Africa, and it seems somehow incumbent on the first black U.S. president to make an appearance. We suspect he will, unless some serious international craziness is going down.
Obama's connection to Africa is quite direct. Unlike most African-Americans, whose African heritage includes ancestors who came to the United States, as slaves, 100, 200, even 300 years ago, Obama's father was born in Kenya.
So, yes, he will go to South Africa, if at all possible.
Now, about the 2018 or 2022 World Cup.
2014 is already decided; it is going to Brazil, and South America deserves it. Considering South American sides have won nine of the 18 World Cups played so far, yet haven't hosted one since 1978 (Argentina).
But after that ...
It would make sense for FIFA to bring the event back to the States. The 1994 World Cup was here, and it was an enormous success. It remains the World Cup record-holder for attendance, and by a wide margin, because the U.S. has so many enormous venues. And filled them. Repeatedly. The U.S. also has significant immigrant populations from just about any country you can name, so even if fans don't travel from the other side of the world ... they would have plenty of fans already in the States.
The 1994 World Cup also served as a jumpstart for the American domestic league that has done much to advance the game here.
It's hard to imagine a World Cup here being a bad idea. The infrastructure is pretty much here (though it's hard to travel from one end of the country to the other, unlike a compact Euro country) ... the experience is here ... the communications and technology are here ... and the U.S. remains a quite-not-tapped market. Maybe soccer never catches American football, baseball and basketball as one of the Big Three sports ... but it could get closer, and a World Cup on these shores could go a long way toward making that happen.
We shall see. In theory, it should be time, in 2018, for a return to North America. it will have been 24 years since 1994. But it appears as if FIFA is planning to go back to Europe in 2018, probably to England.
So, 2022. Shall we pencil it into our datebook? Read more!
Sunday, July 26, 2009
'Slaughter a Cow for the Workers'
OK, this South Africa World Cup is going to be a bit different.
In this story from The Sunday Times, of Johannesburg, we have the country's president, Jacob Zuma, insisting the country is ready for the 2010 World Cup.
He boasts that many world leaders have congratulated him on just how well things are going. Including Barack Obama.
Even though, clearly, several stadiums are not yet complete. Including the one in Durban that Zuma was visiting.
And, at the end, to give you an idea of the culture gap between South Africa and, say, the First World ... Zuma is paraphrased as asking the mayor of the city of Durban to "slaughter a cow for the workers when they finish building the Moses Mabhida stadium."
Hmm. This is not going to be like any World Cup before it. As if we hadn't already figured that out. Read more!
In this story from The Sunday Times, of Johannesburg, we have the country's president, Jacob Zuma, insisting the country is ready for the 2010 World Cup.
He boasts that many world leaders have congratulated him on just how well things are going. Including Barack Obama.
Even though, clearly, several stadiums are not yet complete. Including the one in Durban that Zuma was visiting.
And, at the end, to give you an idea of the culture gap between South Africa and, say, the First World ... Zuma is paraphrased as asking the mayor of the city of Durban to "slaughter a cow for the workers when they finish building the Moses Mabhida stadium."
Hmm. This is not going to be like any World Cup before it. As if we hadn't already figured that out. Read more!
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Upcoming Qualifiers: Marking Your Calendar
We're not far off from another batch of World Cup qualifying matches.
Some dates to circle on your calendar:
Aug. 12, eight matches: Including three in Concacaf, the biggest of which is the United States at Mexico. The U.S. could come very close to clinching a berth in the 2010 World Cup with a victory, but it has never won at Estadio Azteca. Mexico, meanwhile, badly needs a victory over its arch-rival to get moving back into the top three in the Concacaf standings. Also this day, Honduras is home to group leader Costa Rica; the Hondurans pretty much need a victory to nourish hopes of a top-three finish in the group (and a guaranteed spot in South Africa). Also, this day, Germany vs. Azerbaijan in Baku. Germany needs three points against a puny Azeri squad to keep clear of second-place of Russia in Group 4 standings, but winning on the road is always a chore; finishing second in the group means a home-and-home playoff for the World Cup.
Sept. 5, 35 matches: A huge day. Some countries can clinch, many can get close and others will be buried before this day is out. All of South America is playing, as is all of Concacaf's final six, and most of Europe and Africa. Brazil at Argentina is bigger than usual, with Argentina at risk of not qualifying; upstart Gabon is home against Cameroon and can put some distance between itself and its Group A rivals; Mexico at Costa Rica could possibly clinch a World Cup spot for the Ticos; and in Europe, Portugal at Denmark is crucial for both teams, and Greece and Switzerland, as well as Latvia at Israel hold extra meaning. This is the date, too, of the first half of the Saudi Arabia-Bahrain home-and-home for the No. 5 spot in Asia and a playoff with New Zealand for a guaranteed berth. Again, a huge day.
Sept. 6, five matches: The African contenders that didn't play on Sept. 5 are in action. Ghana should pretty much wrap up a berth in a match at home against Sudan; and Nigeria faces a win-or-else match at home against Group D leader Tunisia, which has seven points to Nigeria's 5 with two matches left after this one.
Sept. 8, five matches: South America's 10 contenders go at it again. Argentina at Paraguay is important, as is Chile at Brazil. At the end of the day, only two qualifiers remain for the South American crews.
Sept. 9, 30 matches: More finalists should be determined in another huge day. I'm thinking the U.S. clinches at Trinidad & Tobago, for example. Other big matches: Honduras at Mexico, in a game that may decide the 3-4 spots in Concacaf, 3 being a guaranteed berth, 4 being a playoffs with the No. 5 team out of South America; England home vs. Croatia with a chance to clinch Europe Group 6; Russia at Wales, France at Serbia, with the lead in Group 7 possibly at stake; and Bahrain at Saudi Arabia in the second half of the Asia fifth-place playoffs.
Then we have a month to digest all that before qualifying picks up on Oct. 10. Read more!
Some dates to circle on your calendar:
Aug. 12, eight matches: Including three in Concacaf, the biggest of which is the United States at Mexico. The U.S. could come very close to clinching a berth in the 2010 World Cup with a victory, but it has never won at Estadio Azteca. Mexico, meanwhile, badly needs a victory over its arch-rival to get moving back into the top three in the Concacaf standings. Also this day, Honduras is home to group leader Costa Rica; the Hondurans pretty much need a victory to nourish hopes of a top-three finish in the group (and a guaranteed spot in South Africa). Also, this day, Germany vs. Azerbaijan in Baku. Germany needs three points against a puny Azeri squad to keep clear of second-place of Russia in Group 4 standings, but winning on the road is always a chore; finishing second in the group means a home-and-home playoff for the World Cup.
Sept. 5, 35 matches: A huge day. Some countries can clinch, many can get close and others will be buried before this day is out. All of South America is playing, as is all of Concacaf's final six, and most of Europe and Africa. Brazil at Argentina is bigger than usual, with Argentina at risk of not qualifying; upstart Gabon is home against Cameroon and can put some distance between itself and its Group A rivals; Mexico at Costa Rica could possibly clinch a World Cup spot for the Ticos; and in Europe, Portugal at Denmark is crucial for both teams, and Greece and Switzerland, as well as Latvia at Israel hold extra meaning. This is the date, too, of the first half of the Saudi Arabia-Bahrain home-and-home for the No. 5 spot in Asia and a playoff with New Zealand for a guaranteed berth. Again, a huge day.
Sept. 6, five matches: The African contenders that didn't play on Sept. 5 are in action. Ghana should pretty much wrap up a berth in a match at home against Sudan; and Nigeria faces a win-or-else match at home against Group D leader Tunisia, which has seven points to Nigeria's 5 with two matches left after this one.
Sept. 8, five matches: South America's 10 contenders go at it again. Argentina at Paraguay is important, as is Chile at Brazil. At the end of the day, only two qualifiers remain for the South American crews.
Sept. 9, 30 matches: More finalists should be determined in another huge day. I'm thinking the U.S. clinches at Trinidad & Tobago, for example. Other big matches: Honduras at Mexico, in a game that may decide the 3-4 spots in Concacaf, 3 being a guaranteed berth, 4 being a playoffs with the No. 5 team out of South America; England home vs. Croatia with a chance to clinch Europe Group 6; Russia at Wales, France at Serbia, with the lead in Group 7 possibly at stake; and Bahrain at Saudi Arabia in the second half of the Asia fifth-place playoffs.
Then we have a month to digest all that before qualifying picks up on Oct. 10. Read more!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Fears of Illegal Immigrant Wave for World Cup
Part of the writing process, on this blog, will be getting familiar with South Africa on a sort of daily basis. And to do that I have begun looking at the Web sites of some of its leading newspapers.
It was from that poking around that I found the item on this blog, below, about the search for World Cup volunteers.
And here is something else that seems to be a big issue. And we can relate to it. Illegal immigration, and South African fears that illegal immigration will rise during the World Cup, as illustrated in this Johannesburg Times news story.
To Americans, South Africa seems a poor and sick country. And, well, it is. South Africa has an annual per capita income of $10,000 -- compared to the U.S. figure of $47,000 (according to the CIA's 2008 statistics). South Africa also has an extremely high rate of HIV and AIDS cases, with one site suggesting as many as one-in-five South African adults has HIV.
But a per capita income of $10,000 is serious money, in Africa; enough to make would-be immigrants ignore those AIDS/HIV statistics.
The only sub-Saharan nations on the African continent with higher per capita incomes than South Africa are tiny, oil-soaked Equatorial Guinea ($31,400), Gabon ($14,400) and Botswana ($13,300).
As the Times story indicates, South Africa already has as many as 5 million illegal immigrants in a population of 47 million, and there has been violence directed at the foreigners by native South Africans who believe the newcomers are taking jobs and depressing the wage scale. (Sound familiar?) Africa is home to 15 of the 16 poorest nations on Earth, and two of them (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) have long borders with South Africa.
South Africa is, apparently, easy to sneak into under any conditions, but it is feared it will be particularly open before and during the World Cup, and that poor/desperate/starving Africans will slip into South Africa, in even greater numbers than usual, looking for work and hoping to take advantage of the economic stimulus of a World Cup.
Which could make for more violence and destabilize the government and the economy.
An event as big as the World Cup ... it highlights deep and complex issues we might not normally consider. And has ramifications we can guess at but not predict with accuracy. Read more!
It was from that poking around that I found the item on this blog, below, about the search for World Cup volunteers.
And here is something else that seems to be a big issue. And we can relate to it. Illegal immigration, and South African fears that illegal immigration will rise during the World Cup, as illustrated in this Johannesburg Times news story.
To Americans, South Africa seems a poor and sick country. And, well, it is. South Africa has an annual per capita income of $10,000 -- compared to the U.S. figure of $47,000 (according to the CIA's 2008 statistics). South Africa also has an extremely high rate of HIV and AIDS cases, with one site suggesting as many as one-in-five South African adults has HIV.
But a per capita income of $10,000 is serious money, in Africa; enough to make would-be immigrants ignore those AIDS/HIV statistics.
The only sub-Saharan nations on the African continent with higher per capita incomes than South Africa are tiny, oil-soaked Equatorial Guinea ($31,400), Gabon ($14,400) and Botswana ($13,300).
As the Times story indicates, South Africa already has as many as 5 million illegal immigrants in a population of 47 million, and there has been violence directed at the foreigners by native South Africans who believe the newcomers are taking jobs and depressing the wage scale. (Sound familiar?) Africa is home to 15 of the 16 poorest nations on Earth, and two of them (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) have long borders with South Africa.
South Africa is, apparently, easy to sneak into under any conditions, but it is feared it will be particularly open before and during the World Cup, and that poor/desperate/starving Africans will slip into South Africa, in even greater numbers than usual, looking for work and hoping to take advantage of the economic stimulus of a World Cup.
Which could make for more violence and destabilize the government and the economy.
An event as big as the World Cup ... it highlights deep and complex issues we might not normally consider. And has ramifications we can guess at but not predict with accuracy. Read more!
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Want to Be a Volunteer at the 2010 World Cup?
Here is your chance, if you want to be part of it all.
According to the Johannesburg Times, organizers are looking for 15,000 volunteers.
You don't have to be from South Africa. Actually, the only right-up-front requirement we see here is fluency in English, which you've already got if you're reading this. That is, you are qualified right now! How exciting. Oh, wait. You have to be at least 18 years old, too. Can't imagine many kids read me ...
A lot of these probably are semi-drudge jobs. (I wonder if any will be like those poor saps I saw at the Beijing Olympics ... whose every-day-for-three-weeks job was to be restroom attendants in the media center.) And I doubt there is much pay, if any. So be prepared to go over on your own dime, and work for free. Or maybe they will give you a ticket to this or that lesser match, or let you stand in the back. Maybe.
Deadline for getting in your application is Aug. 31.
Anyway, it apparently is an option, and we thought you ought to know. Read more!
According to the Johannesburg Times, organizers are looking for 15,000 volunteers.
You don't have to be from South Africa. Actually, the only right-up-front requirement we see here is fluency in English, which you've already got if you're reading this. That is, you are qualified right now! How exciting. Oh, wait. You have to be at least 18 years old, too. Can't imagine many kids read me ...
A lot of these probably are semi-drudge jobs. (I wonder if any will be like those poor saps I saw at the Beijing Olympics ... whose every-day-for-three-weeks job was to be restroom attendants in the media center.) And I doubt there is much pay, if any. So be prepared to go over on your own dime, and work for free. Or maybe they will give you a ticket to this or that lesser match, or let you stand in the back. Maybe.
Deadline for getting in your application is Aug. 31.
Anyway, it apparently is an option, and we thought you ought to know. Read more!
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
If I Got to Choose the World Cup Teams, Part 2
The final half (or 13/32nds, to get the fraction correct) of my look at the nations likely to make the 2010 World Cup, and those I prefer actually did make it.
Yesterday we handled the whole world, aside from Europe.
Today, we take on Europe. The home of soccer and of its most successful professional leagues.
EUROPE (13 places, 53 countries)
Qualified: Netherlands.
Likely qualifiers: Denmark, Greece, Slovakia, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy, France, Russia, Hungary, Croatia.
Preferred qualifiers: Denmark, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Serbia, Turkey.
Comments: This is a very fluid situation because Europe is qualifying 13 nations from nine groups. How does that work, you ask. (Here are the standings, if you care to look.) The nine group winners get in, and the best eight of the nine second-place teams conduct four home-and-home playoffs to win the final four slots. The "best eight" are determined by points earned in group qualifying. ... So, for "likely qualifiers," above, we went with the eight group leaders (Netherlands has clinched Group 9) and the four teams that have the best prospects for 1) finishing second and 2) winning a home-and-home. ... For starters, no World Cup seems complete without these six: England, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. They have the history, or the great professional leagues, or both, and soccer fans would miss any of them. Luckily, Netherlands is in, England and Spain are in great shape to win their groups, and Germany and Italy lead their groups, albeit narrowly. France trails Serbia in its group, 18-12, and even with two games in hand against the Faroe Islands, France seems unlikely to finish ahead of the Serbs, and will need to win that home-and-home with whomever. Hope they do, because the French are fun to have around thinking their deep soccer thoughts. ... After those six, we go for teams that are fun or represent interesting socio-political situations. Denmark leads its group and gives the World Cup one Scandinavian team. Always need one Scandinavian team, if for nothing else than shots of the blonde girls in the stands. ... Ireland isn't really very good, but it is so much fun to have tens of thousands hard-partying Ireland fans following around their team and drunkenly slurring the words to "Danny Boy," or whatever, in the stands, so we want them to get in, too, as a second-place team (unless Ireland beats out Italy, which is unlikely). ... Israel would be fun because we are looking for provocative story lines, and Israel always is one of those. Israel has been in only one World Cup, in 1970, and is considered a "European" side because its Arab neighbors (in the Asia group, where Israel belongs, really) won't play the Israelis. They probably are not going to make it; they sit fourth in Group 2 with four matches left, but they have a shot: Three of their final four matches are in Israel; two matches are quite winnable (home vs. Moldova and Luxembourg); and the other two are against nations just ahead of them in the standings (Latvia, at Switzerland). Since I have neither Greece of Switzerland listed among my "preferred," that means Israel needs to win the group. Weirder things have happened. ... I want Portugal to make it, though its chances are slim, as well, because the Portuguese can play quite entertaining soccer and because they have Cristiano Ronaldo, probably the best player in the world at the moment. What's a World Cup without the world's best player? However, Portugal has to make up four points, in four matches, to catch second-place Hungary, so don't hold your breath. ... Russia? Want them just because the once (and future?) Evil Empire is a good story, too, and actually a pretty solid soccer nation. Russia could win Group 4, actually, by defeating Germany at home, Oct. 14. Vladimir Putin would be proud. ... We "want" Serbia only barely, because Serbia leads its group, so what the heck, and because the Balkans has at least three pretty good soccer sides (Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina being the others), and one of them needs to get in -- even if the other Balkans folks absolutely will not root for them. ... Turkey makes our list because of that generic "bring a shaky nation to the World Cup" thing. It is teetering with religious fundamentalism again, and a secular global success would be good for the secularists. Also, Turkey can play, and has a nice domestic league. Turkey trails Bosnia-Herzegovina by four points with four matches, but has a shot of catching BH because it gets them head to head (in BH) and because BH still has to play Spain, while the Turks are finished with the Spaniards. (And have been, since Lepanto. Random historical reference.) Besides, if the Turks can't get up to second, that puts BH in one of the four home-and-home playoffs for a slot, and if they and Serbia get in, that's one too many Balkan teams.
Finally: European teams will be top-seeded in at least five of the eight World Cup groups and as many as seven, if Argentina doesn't qualify and France does. What will be supremely interesting to see is how well the Euros do in South Africa. Keep in mind this remarkable World Cup stat: No Euro side has won the World Cup when it was played outside Europe. None. Europe is 9-for-10 in European-staged World Cups, but 0-for-8, outside Europe. That's four in South America, two in Mexico, one in the U.S. and one in Japan/South Korea. ... Will Africa prove any more hospitable to the Euros? The time difference isn't as pronounced; there's that. Only an hour or two. It will be mid-winter in South Africa, and a cool and rainy climate should remind the Euros of home. But South Africa is a big country, and moving around will seem like a big deal for the Euros, who usually can take a train or a bus to all their club matches. And Africa is going to seem particularly exotic to the Euros. Moreso than the teams from Asia or the Americas, I think. ... I am going to predict, now, that even with the benefit of all those seeded teams, Europe isn't going to win this non-Euro World Cup, either. Read more!
Yesterday we handled the whole world, aside from Europe.
Today, we take on Europe. The home of soccer and of its most successful professional leagues.
EUROPE (13 places, 53 countries)
Qualified: Netherlands.
Likely qualifiers: Denmark, Greece, Slovakia, Germany, Spain, England, Serbia, Italy, France, Russia, Hungary, Croatia.
Preferred qualifiers: Denmark, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Serbia, Turkey.
Comments: This is a very fluid situation because Europe is qualifying 13 nations from nine groups. How does that work, you ask. (Here are the standings, if you care to look.) The nine group winners get in, and the best eight of the nine second-place teams conduct four home-and-home playoffs to win the final four slots. The "best eight" are determined by points earned in group qualifying. ... So, for "likely qualifiers," above, we went with the eight group leaders (Netherlands has clinched Group 9) and the four teams that have the best prospects for 1) finishing second and 2) winning a home-and-home. ... For starters, no World Cup seems complete without these six: England, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. They have the history, or the great professional leagues, or both, and soccer fans would miss any of them. Luckily, Netherlands is in, England and Spain are in great shape to win their groups, and Germany and Italy lead their groups, albeit narrowly. France trails Serbia in its group, 18-12, and even with two games in hand against the Faroe Islands, France seems unlikely to finish ahead of the Serbs, and will need to win that home-and-home with whomever. Hope they do, because the French are fun to have around thinking their deep soccer thoughts. ... After those six, we go for teams that are fun or represent interesting socio-political situations. Denmark leads its group and gives the World Cup one Scandinavian team. Always need one Scandinavian team, if for nothing else than shots of the blonde girls in the stands. ... Ireland isn't really very good, but it is so much fun to have tens of thousands hard-partying Ireland fans following around their team and drunkenly slurring the words to "Danny Boy," or whatever, in the stands, so we want them to get in, too, as a second-place team (unless Ireland beats out Italy, which is unlikely). ... Israel would be fun because we are looking for provocative story lines, and Israel always is one of those. Israel has been in only one World Cup, in 1970, and is considered a "European" side because its Arab neighbors (in the Asia group, where Israel belongs, really) won't play the Israelis. They probably are not going to make it; they sit fourth in Group 2 with four matches left, but they have a shot: Three of their final four matches are in Israel; two matches are quite winnable (home vs. Moldova and Luxembourg); and the other two are against nations just ahead of them in the standings (Latvia, at Switzerland). Since I have neither Greece of Switzerland listed among my "preferred," that means Israel needs to win the group. Weirder things have happened. ... I want Portugal to make it, though its chances are slim, as well, because the Portuguese can play quite entertaining soccer and because they have Cristiano Ronaldo, probably the best player in the world at the moment. What's a World Cup without the world's best player? However, Portugal has to make up four points, in four matches, to catch second-place Hungary, so don't hold your breath. ... Russia? Want them just because the once (and future?) Evil Empire is a good story, too, and actually a pretty solid soccer nation. Russia could win Group 4, actually, by defeating Germany at home, Oct. 14. Vladimir Putin would be proud. ... We "want" Serbia only barely, because Serbia leads its group, so what the heck, and because the Balkans has at least three pretty good soccer sides (Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina being the others), and one of them needs to get in -- even if the other Balkans folks absolutely will not root for them. ... Turkey makes our list because of that generic "bring a shaky nation to the World Cup" thing. It is teetering with religious fundamentalism again, and a secular global success would be good for the secularists. Also, Turkey can play, and has a nice domestic league. Turkey trails Bosnia-Herzegovina by four points with four matches, but has a shot of catching BH because it gets them head to head (in BH) and because BH still has to play Spain, while the Turks are finished with the Spaniards. (And have been, since Lepanto. Random historical reference.) Besides, if the Turks can't get up to second, that puts BH in one of the four home-and-home playoffs for a slot, and if they and Serbia get in, that's one too many Balkan teams.
Finally: European teams will be top-seeded in at least five of the eight World Cup groups and as many as seven, if Argentina doesn't qualify and France does. What will be supremely interesting to see is how well the Euros do in South Africa. Keep in mind this remarkable World Cup stat: No Euro side has won the World Cup when it was played outside Europe. None. Europe is 9-for-10 in European-staged World Cups, but 0-for-8, outside Europe. That's four in South America, two in Mexico, one in the U.S. and one in Japan/South Korea. ... Will Africa prove any more hospitable to the Euros? The time difference isn't as pronounced; there's that. Only an hour or two. It will be mid-winter in South Africa, and a cool and rainy climate should remind the Euros of home. But South Africa is a big country, and moving around will seem like a big deal for the Euros, who usually can take a train or a bus to all their club matches. And Africa is going to seem particularly exotic to the Euros. Moreso than the teams from Asia or the Americas, I think. ... I am going to predict, now, that even with the benefit of all those seeded teams, Europe isn't going to win this non-Euro World Cup, either. Read more!
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