This already was too intense.
And now?
Things were on the verge of chaos before Egypt and Algeria met in their Africa Group C finale tonight, with a berth in South Africa 2010 at stake.
Three Algerian players were injured when their team bus was pelted by stones on the way from the airport to the hotel. An event that sparked outrage in Algeria and, at first, complete denials in Egypt (and a rather shameful media report that the Algerians had trashed their own bus) ...
That was followed by Fifa warning Egypt to take care of security, the sort of blunt "you better get this right" threat that the world governing body rarely issues. And Egypt giving up its "we didn't do nothin' " stance and promising to provide unprecedented security to the Algerians.
And for more "fun" ... Algerians attacked an Egyptian work camp, in Algeria, and looted their quarters.
Hmm. Soccer War II, anyone?
And now ... with Egypt scoring in the final seconds of the fifth extra-time minute, to win 2-0 in Cairo ... Algeria and Egypt are in an exact tie in the Group C standings, and will have a one-match playoff to determine a place in the 2010 finals ... on Wednesday at Omdurman, Sudan.
Egypt and Algeria, bitter rivals in soccer. Who (outside of north Africa) knew?
The match had generated such strong emotion among fans of the two teams ... that here in Abu Dhabi, all the way across the Arabian Peninsula from Egypt, Egyptian expats were driving up and down the streets honking horns and waving flags two hours after the match was over.
So, yes, they get to play it again.
Sudan is a neutral site, but it is Egypt's preferred neutral site. When Fifa figured out that the teams could end in a absolute tie, it opted for the extra game and asked the combatants (uh, contestants) where they would like to play it. Algeria preferred Tunisia.
And the draw to decide who got their choice was so closely watched that the fifa.com web site posted a series of photos to the process, intended to show that it was on the up and up.
Bizarre.
You almost wonder, now, if the best way to approach the playoff game, on Wednesday, is to close the stadium. Allow the players and media in, but no fans. But show it on television, of course.
Four European teams will play their way into the World Cup on Wednesday, as will one from the Western Hemisphere ... but the single hottest match would appear to be Algeria and Egypt. In the Sudan.
Read more!
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Nigeria (!) and Cameroon Join the 2010 Party
Cameroon took care of business.
Nigeria took care of the upset.
Cameroon put an exclamation mark on its worst-to-first surge in Africa Group A, going to Fez and throttling Morocco 2-0 to clinch its sixth appearance in a World Cup final -- a high for any African nation.
Meanwhile, Nigeria pulled a dramatic switcheroo on the final day of qualifying in Africa Group B, winning a 3-2 goalfest at Kenya while Tunisia was shut down and shut out, 1-0, at Mozambique.
Leaving just one South Africa 2010 berth out there to be won today (probably), Algeria or Egypt out of Africa Group C.
Nigeria was in trouble, before today's action began. It suffered a surprising (at the time) tie at Mozambique, then saw a home victory turn into a 2-2 tie when Tunisia's Oussama Darragi scored in the 89th minute, back in September.
That left Tunisia in control of its destiny, at Mozambique. And then the matches kicked off.
Tunisia didn't score in the first half, but its two-point lead looked secure because Nigeria trailed 1-0 at halftime in Nairobi.
Things turned in a hurry. Nigeria got even in the 62nd minute on a goal by Obafemi Martins and went ahead three minutes late on a goal by Aiyegbeni Yakuba. Kenya got even in the 79th minute, but Martins scored the winner in the 83rd minute.
Meanwhile, Tunisia not only couldn't win, at Maputo, it surrendered a goal to Dario in the 83rd minute ... and a quarter-hour after that Tunisia had failed to qualify for the first time since 1994, and Nigeria was in. Rest assured the change at the top was celebrated in Abuja and Lagos.
Turns out, Mozambique was a tough place to play. The 'biques tied Nigeria at home and won against Kenya and Tunisia, and it is that one point Nigeria got for the tie at Maputo that has it going to South Africa. What looked, a day ago, like a bad result, actually was decisive -- in a good way for Nigeria.
Meanwhile, Cameroon proved it was just too strong for its group, taking care of Morocco with the help of a goal from Samuel Eto'o. The victory was rendered moot when second-standing Gabon couldn't manage to win at Togo, going down 1-0.
That settles Africa's lineup for South Africa 2010 -- South Africa, the host; Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and the winner of the Egypt-Algeria game currently underway. Read more!
Nigeria took care of the upset.
Cameroon put an exclamation mark on its worst-to-first surge in Africa Group A, going to Fez and throttling Morocco 2-0 to clinch its sixth appearance in a World Cup final -- a high for any African nation.
Meanwhile, Nigeria pulled a dramatic switcheroo on the final day of qualifying in Africa Group B, winning a 3-2 goalfest at Kenya while Tunisia was shut down and shut out, 1-0, at Mozambique.
Leaving just one South Africa 2010 berth out there to be won today (probably), Algeria or Egypt out of Africa Group C.
Nigeria was in trouble, before today's action began. It suffered a surprising (at the time) tie at Mozambique, then saw a home victory turn into a 2-2 tie when Tunisia's Oussama Darragi scored in the 89th minute, back in September.
That left Tunisia in control of its destiny, at Mozambique. And then the matches kicked off.
Tunisia didn't score in the first half, but its two-point lead looked secure because Nigeria trailed 1-0 at halftime in Nairobi.
Things turned in a hurry. Nigeria got even in the 62nd minute on a goal by Obafemi Martins and went ahead three minutes late on a goal by Aiyegbeni Yakuba. Kenya got even in the 79th minute, but Martins scored the winner in the 83rd minute.
Meanwhile, Tunisia not only couldn't win, at Maputo, it surrendered a goal to Dario in the 83rd minute ... and a quarter-hour after that Tunisia had failed to qualify for the first time since 1994, and Nigeria was in. Rest assured the change at the top was celebrated in Abuja and Lagos.
Turns out, Mozambique was a tough place to play. The 'biques tied Nigeria at home and won against Kenya and Tunisia, and it is that one point Nigeria got for the tie at Maputo that has it going to South Africa. What looked, a day ago, like a bad result, actually was decisive -- in a good way for Nigeria.
Meanwhile, Cameroon proved it was just too strong for its group, taking care of Morocco with the help of a goal from Samuel Eto'o. The victory was rendered moot when second-standing Gabon couldn't manage to win at Togo, going down 1-0.
That settles Africa's lineup for South Africa 2010 -- South Africa, the host; Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and the winner of the Egypt-Algeria game currently underway. Read more!
Kiwis Headed for South Africa 2010
New Zealand defeated Bahrain 1-0 on what looked like a blustery night in Wellington -- which was what the Kiwis were hoping for as a favorable atmosphere for heat-loving Bahrain.
Rory Fallon headed home the only goal, just before halftime, and goalkeeper Mark Paston saved a penalty early in the second half to put New Zealand into South Africa 2010.
It is the first result in today, from the 15 qualifiers on tap. The Saturday night match actually ended before Saturday even dawned in a big chunk of the world.
Here is a link to the story posted by the Post Dominion newspaper in Wellington. The page has a video link that nearly summarizes the match.
Later today I will post a link to one of Bahrain's English-language newspaper for what, no doubt, will be a mournful account of the proceedings.
(I would hate to be Sayed Mohamed Adnan, the man who failed to convert the penalty. He probably instantly became one of the 10 most infamous people in Bahrain.)
The ramifications of this:
--Bahrain's failure means that Gulf Arabs won't have a team at South Africa. If they want to root for fellow Arabs, they will have to settle for the Tunisians or Algerians, if they advance, later today.
--It means Bahrain has come tantalizingly close to its first World Cup for in consecutive quadrenniums. The Bahrainis lost a similar home-and-home, winner-goes-to-the-World Cup vs. another "unfancied" squad (as the English would say) in Trinidad & Tobago before the 2006 World Cup. How do you say "Close but no cigar" in Arabic?
--New Zealand gives Oceania a team in the World Cup. Although Australia also is in. The Aussies, however, shifted into Asia beginning with this qualifying round. Thus, New Zealand had to defeat only sad little sides such as New Caledonia and Fiji to get to the playoff with Bahrain. It is by far -- by far -- the weakest region in the world, and the Kiwis are all but guaranteed a playoff shot ... forever. Or until Australia comes back.
--It is New Zealand's first World Cup appearance since 1982, and second all-time, and there may not be many more -- even with the nearly-straight-to-the-playoffs reality of the current Oceania setup. Not if some of Asia's enormously populated, soccer-mad countries ever get their acts together. (Talking to you, China. And you, India and Indonesia and Malaysia.) That would put a side more formidable than Bahrain into a playoffs with the Oceania champ. (That is, New Zealand.) New Zealand has only 4.3 million people, and soccer is no better than its third-favorite sport, far behind rugby and cricket.
--New Zealand now is the darling underdog of South Africa 2010 (assuming the hosts have to play better than they have shown, of late). And they also are officially the team Everyone Wants in Their Group when the 2010 draw is made on Dec. 5.
But just being there ... that's a big deal for New Zealand soccer. Congratulations. Read more!
Rory Fallon headed home the only goal, just before halftime, and goalkeeper Mark Paston saved a penalty early in the second half to put New Zealand into South Africa 2010.
It is the first result in today, from the 15 qualifiers on tap. The Saturday night match actually ended before Saturday even dawned in a big chunk of the world.
Here is a link to the story posted by the Post Dominion newspaper in Wellington. The page has a video link that nearly summarizes the match.
Later today I will post a link to one of Bahrain's English-language newspaper for what, no doubt, will be a mournful account of the proceedings.
(I would hate to be Sayed Mohamed Adnan, the man who failed to convert the penalty. He probably instantly became one of the 10 most infamous people in Bahrain.)
The ramifications of this:
--Bahrain's failure means that Gulf Arabs won't have a team at South Africa. If they want to root for fellow Arabs, they will have to settle for the Tunisians or Algerians, if they advance, later today.
--It means Bahrain has come tantalizingly close to its first World Cup for in consecutive quadrenniums. The Bahrainis lost a similar home-and-home, winner-goes-to-the-World Cup vs. another "unfancied" squad (as the English would say) in Trinidad & Tobago before the 2006 World Cup. How do you say "Close but no cigar" in Arabic?
--New Zealand gives Oceania a team in the World Cup. Although Australia also is in. The Aussies, however, shifted into Asia beginning with this qualifying round. Thus, New Zealand had to defeat only sad little sides such as New Caledonia and Fiji to get to the playoff with Bahrain. It is by far -- by far -- the weakest region in the world, and the Kiwis are all but guaranteed a playoff shot ... forever. Or until Australia comes back.
--It is New Zealand's first World Cup appearance since 1982, and second all-time, and there may not be many more -- even with the nearly-straight-to-the-playoffs reality of the current Oceania setup. Not if some of Asia's enormously populated, soccer-mad countries ever get their acts together. (Talking to you, China. And you, India and Indonesia and Malaysia.) That would put a side more formidable than Bahrain into a playoffs with the Oceania champ. (That is, New Zealand.) New Zealand has only 4.3 million people, and soccer is no better than its third-favorite sport, far behind rugby and cricket.
--New Zealand now is the darling underdog of South Africa 2010 (assuming the hosts have to play better than they have shown, of late). And they also are officially the team Everyone Wants in Their Group when the 2010 draw is made on Dec. 5.
But just being there ... that's a big deal for New Zealand soccer. Congratulations. Read more!
Friday, November 13, 2009
The Eve of the Last Big Qualifying Day
Fifteen matches are scheduled for Saturday. Only six will be left on the qualifying schedule, after tomorrow's action is wrapped up.
Yes, five of those last six will be the second leg of home-and-home playoffs for South Africa 2010 berths. But in terms of numbers of matches, Saturday is the last big hurrah of the long, long qualifying process.
Here is a survey of the Matches That Mean Something, from Saturday's schedule, in order of what we believe to be increasing global interest:
--Uruguay at Costa Rica. This game is of significant interest in the Western Hemisphere ... but not so much around the rest of the world, where it seems to be assumed the Uruguayans, the No. 5 team out of South America, should have little trouble with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf, the one that struggled down the stretch and couldn't hold a 2-0 lead over the U.S. in its final regional qualifier -- thus condemning it to this home-and-home with Uruguay. However, Costa Rica is formidable in San Jose, on the artificial turf of Estadio Saprissa, and a victory by the Ticos (a goal or two by Bryan Ruiz, perhaps) would not surprise anyone who has been to Saprissa. The return match is in Montevideo on Wednesday.
--Cameroon at Morocco. The Indomitable Lions of Cameroon win Africa Group A with a victory over the Moroccans, at Fez. Cameroon is the favorite, given that Morocco hasn't managed a victory yet in Group A play, but a tie wouldn't be out of the question, and that would leave a crack open for Gabon to win the group -- with a victory at Togo. Gabon would be a great story, a World Cup first-timer with a small population and a profoundly anonymous roster. But Cameroon won the two head-to-head matches with Gabon and probably deserves to go. It would be Cameroon's sixth World Cup finals -- an African record.
--Tunisia at Mozambique. Tunisia is two points clear of Nigeria atop Africa Group B and clinches a berth in South Africa with a victory on the road. Mozambique has been formidable in its two previous home matches, in Maputo, holding Nigeria to a 0-0 draw (which is why Nigeria is trailing Tunisia) and defeating Kenya. So Tunisia shouldn't show up with fat heads, because if the Tunisians stumble and Nigeria wins at enfeebled Kenya, the Super Lions would jump to the top of the group -- either by goal differential (Tunisia tie) or by raw points (Tunisia defeat).
--Slovenia at Russia. One of the four home-and-home playoffs involving European group runners-up, and probably the one in which the underdogs seem most under the gun. The match is at Moscow. Slovenia's goal will be keeping it close and hoping to end ahead after the teams play in Maribor on Wednesday.
--Ukraine at Greece. Another of the Europe runners-up playoffs. Greece struggled to finish second in perhaps the weakest group in European qualifying, Group 2, and their negative tactics (keep it scoreless and hope to poach a goal late) that worked so well at Euro 2004 are getting a bit tired. But, then, Ukraine wouldn't be here if it hadn't gotten a home victory over England after the English already had clinched Group 6; Croatia would be in this playoff, instead. Greece probably needs a victory here because assuming it will get a result out of Donetsk on Wednesday would be foolish. Not when Ukraine boasts a reinvigorated Andrei Shevchenko.
--Portugal at Bosnia-Herzegovina. Cristiano Ronaldo is out for the Portuguese in this two-game Euro runners-up playoff, and BH is keen to nail down its first World Cup finals berth ... and it certainly could. Portugal will need production from the likes of Deco, Simao and Leidson, and probably needs a victory at home, in Lisbon. The return match is at Zenica on Wednesday, and a BH victory there isn't hard to imagine. Portugal is one of the two global powers in mortal danger of not getting to South Africa 2010. And the other is ...
--France at Ireland. Speaking of highly regarded teams seemingly prepared to take a fall ... there is Raymond Domenech's bleus who have never found their pace throughout qualifying. They probably can take a lot of starch out of the Irish with a victory at Dublin, but the Irish say they are unafraid, and we believe them. And the Irish probably were not amused when Domenech said Ireland represented something of an "England B side." Robbie Keane bulks large for Ireland, as does keeper Shay Given. France will bring its usual host of elite club-side stars ... and probably again struggle to score. (1-0 over the Faeroe Islands? Really?) The return match is at the Stade de France on Wednesday, and Irish fans are snapping up tickets. France clearly is the more talented side, but Ireland seems more cohesive and more assured, making this the most interesting of the four Euro playoffs.
--Algeria at Egypt. The Algerians are no slouches, but most analysts figured Egypt would win Africa Group C. The Pharaohs gave away points early in qualifying and find themselves three points in arrears, even after a surge in recent months. But the final qualifying match is in Cairo, where the home crowd can be intimidating, and things could get interesting. Algeria advances to South Africa with a victory or a tie -- or a one-goal defeat. If Egypt wins by three goals, it takes the group. However, if Egypt wins by two goals, the Pharaohs finish in a dead tie with les fennecs ... and a one-game playoff would follow in Sudan on Wednesday. Striker Mohamed Zidan is back for Egypt, and just in time. Lots of permutations possible here, and that makes it fun.
--Bahrain at New Zealand. The Showdown of the Little People. Two sides ranked deep in the Fifa.com poll (61st and 83rd, respectively) meet in chilly, probably soggy Wellington with a berth in South Africa at stake. Bahrain never has played in a finals, and would become the smallest country (770,000 population) to reach one. New Zealand has been to the finals only once, back in 1982. The first half of this home-and-home was a 0-0 grind in steamy Manama a month ago. The Kiwis need to win to advance; a 0-0 score means a penalty shootout. Bahrain goes forward with a victory or a tie in which goals are scored. The atmosphere should be electric, and the winner will be the Official Underdog of the 2010 World Cup. Read more!
Yes, five of those last six will be the second leg of home-and-home playoffs for South Africa 2010 berths. But in terms of numbers of matches, Saturday is the last big hurrah of the long, long qualifying process.
Here is a survey of the Matches That Mean Something, from Saturday's schedule, in order of what we believe to be increasing global interest:
--Uruguay at Costa Rica. This game is of significant interest in the Western Hemisphere ... but not so much around the rest of the world, where it seems to be assumed the Uruguayans, the No. 5 team out of South America, should have little trouble with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf, the one that struggled down the stretch and couldn't hold a 2-0 lead over the U.S. in its final regional qualifier -- thus condemning it to this home-and-home with Uruguay. However, Costa Rica is formidable in San Jose, on the artificial turf of Estadio Saprissa, and a victory by the Ticos (a goal or two by Bryan Ruiz, perhaps) would not surprise anyone who has been to Saprissa. The return match is in Montevideo on Wednesday.
--Cameroon at Morocco. The Indomitable Lions of Cameroon win Africa Group A with a victory over the Moroccans, at Fez. Cameroon is the favorite, given that Morocco hasn't managed a victory yet in Group A play, but a tie wouldn't be out of the question, and that would leave a crack open for Gabon to win the group -- with a victory at Togo. Gabon would be a great story, a World Cup first-timer with a small population and a profoundly anonymous roster. But Cameroon won the two head-to-head matches with Gabon and probably deserves to go. It would be Cameroon's sixth World Cup finals -- an African record.
--Tunisia at Mozambique. Tunisia is two points clear of Nigeria atop Africa Group B and clinches a berth in South Africa with a victory on the road. Mozambique has been formidable in its two previous home matches, in Maputo, holding Nigeria to a 0-0 draw (which is why Nigeria is trailing Tunisia) and defeating Kenya. So Tunisia shouldn't show up with fat heads, because if the Tunisians stumble and Nigeria wins at enfeebled Kenya, the Super Lions would jump to the top of the group -- either by goal differential (Tunisia tie) or by raw points (Tunisia defeat).
--Slovenia at Russia. One of the four home-and-home playoffs involving European group runners-up, and probably the one in which the underdogs seem most under the gun. The match is at Moscow. Slovenia's goal will be keeping it close and hoping to end ahead after the teams play in Maribor on Wednesday.
--Ukraine at Greece. Another of the Europe runners-up playoffs. Greece struggled to finish second in perhaps the weakest group in European qualifying, Group 2, and their negative tactics (keep it scoreless and hope to poach a goal late) that worked so well at Euro 2004 are getting a bit tired. But, then, Ukraine wouldn't be here if it hadn't gotten a home victory over England after the English already had clinched Group 6; Croatia would be in this playoff, instead. Greece probably needs a victory here because assuming it will get a result out of Donetsk on Wednesday would be foolish. Not when Ukraine boasts a reinvigorated Andrei Shevchenko.
--Portugal at Bosnia-Herzegovina. Cristiano Ronaldo is out for the Portuguese in this two-game Euro runners-up playoff, and BH is keen to nail down its first World Cup finals berth ... and it certainly could. Portugal will need production from the likes of Deco, Simao and Leidson, and probably needs a victory at home, in Lisbon. The return match is at Zenica on Wednesday, and a BH victory there isn't hard to imagine. Portugal is one of the two global powers in mortal danger of not getting to South Africa 2010. And the other is ...
--France at Ireland. Speaking of highly regarded teams seemingly prepared to take a fall ... there is Raymond Domenech's bleus who have never found their pace throughout qualifying. They probably can take a lot of starch out of the Irish with a victory at Dublin, but the Irish say they are unafraid, and we believe them. And the Irish probably were not amused when Domenech said Ireland represented something of an "England B side." Robbie Keane bulks large for Ireland, as does keeper Shay Given. France will bring its usual host of elite club-side stars ... and probably again struggle to score. (1-0 over the Faeroe Islands? Really?) The return match is at the Stade de France on Wednesday, and Irish fans are snapping up tickets. France clearly is the more talented side, but Ireland seems more cohesive and more assured, making this the most interesting of the four Euro playoffs.
--Algeria at Egypt. The Algerians are no slouches, but most analysts figured Egypt would win Africa Group C. The Pharaohs gave away points early in qualifying and find themselves three points in arrears, even after a surge in recent months. But the final qualifying match is in Cairo, where the home crowd can be intimidating, and things could get interesting. Algeria advances to South Africa with a victory or a tie -- or a one-goal defeat. If Egypt wins by three goals, it takes the group. However, if Egypt wins by two goals, the Pharaohs finish in a dead tie with les fennecs ... and a one-game playoff would follow in Sudan on Wednesday. Striker Mohamed Zidan is back for Egypt, and just in time. Lots of permutations possible here, and that makes it fun.
--Bahrain at New Zealand. The Showdown of the Little People. Two sides ranked deep in the Fifa.com poll (61st and 83rd, respectively) meet in chilly, probably soggy Wellington with a berth in South Africa at stake. Bahrain never has played in a finals, and would become the smallest country (770,000 population) to reach one. New Zealand has been to the finals only once, back in 1982. The first half of this home-and-home was a 0-0 grind in steamy Manama a month ago. The Kiwis need to win to advance; a 0-0 score means a penalty shootout. Bahrain goes forward with a victory or a tie in which goals are scored. The atmosphere should be electric, and the winner will be the Official Underdog of the 2010 World Cup. Read more!
Thursday, November 12, 2009
New Zealand Hopes to Erase/Make History
Maybe the most interesting qualifying match on Saturday is the winner-take-all affair between New Zealand and Bahrain, in Wellington.
These are the two lowest-ranked teams (Bahrain is No. 61, according to Fifa.com; New Zealand is No. 83) still in the running for South Africa 2010.
One, Bahrain, has never been in a World Cup, and if it qualifies ... would instantly become the smallest nation, by population (770,000), ever to play in the greatest event in sports, eclipsing Trinidad & Tobago (1.3 million).
The other, New Zealand, has been in the World Cup finals only once, and that was 28 years ago.
Which is a bit of history the pioneers of 1982 wouldn't mind seeing set aside by a new batch of Kiwis in the Big Event.
The Dominion Post of Wellington has done a story on some of the players from the 1982 New Zealand World Cup team, guys approaching middle age now, and they seem to have one opinion on the big game Saturday -- they want the Kiwis to win and take away their "first and only" appellation.
They would be fine with being the first.
New Zealand probably ought to win this match. It is a sports-crazed country that ranks among the world elite in cricket and rugby, a country that always has an elite runner or two.
It has a population of 4.3 million, too, presumably giving it a bigger talent pool from which to draw.
Bahrain, however, has some naturalized players (Nigeria-born striker Jaycee John, most prominantly) , which levels the pitch more than a little. It also plays tougher competition, in the Asia zone, than New Zealand sees in Oceania -- which no longer has Australia in it.
The first half of this long-distance home-and-home playoff was a 0-0 draw in Manama.
New Zealand advances by winning, or by winning a shootout after a 0-0 draw. Bahrain goes forward with a victory or tie from 1-1 on up (by dint of "away goals").
The Kiwis will have a packed stadium of 35,000-plus, and are hoping for vile weather. They said they "suffered" in the heat of Bahrain last month, and one of their players was pulling for strong wind, sleet and temperatures of 7 or 9 celsius (50 or so Fahrenheit), and see how the Bahrainis like the cold.
This is fun. Whoever advances will be the Official Underdog of the 2010 World Cup. Read more!
These are the two lowest-ranked teams (Bahrain is No. 61, according to Fifa.com; New Zealand is No. 83) still in the running for South Africa 2010.
One, Bahrain, has never been in a World Cup, and if it qualifies ... would instantly become the smallest nation, by population (770,000), ever to play in the greatest event in sports, eclipsing Trinidad & Tobago (1.3 million).
The other, New Zealand, has been in the World Cup finals only once, and that was 28 years ago.
Which is a bit of history the pioneers of 1982 wouldn't mind seeing set aside by a new batch of Kiwis in the Big Event.
The Dominion Post of Wellington has done a story on some of the players from the 1982 New Zealand World Cup team, guys approaching middle age now, and they seem to have one opinion on the big game Saturday -- they want the Kiwis to win and take away their "first and only" appellation.
They would be fine with being the first.
New Zealand probably ought to win this match. It is a sports-crazed country that ranks among the world elite in cricket and rugby, a country that always has an elite runner or two.
It has a population of 4.3 million, too, presumably giving it a bigger talent pool from which to draw.
Bahrain, however, has some naturalized players (Nigeria-born striker Jaycee John, most prominantly) , which levels the pitch more than a little. It also plays tougher competition, in the Asia zone, than New Zealand sees in Oceania -- which no longer has Australia in it.
The first half of this long-distance home-and-home playoff was a 0-0 draw in Manama.
New Zealand advances by winning, or by winning a shootout after a 0-0 draw. Bahrain goes forward with a victory or tie from 1-1 on up (by dint of "away goals").
The Kiwis will have a packed stadium of 35,000-plus, and are hoping for vile weather. They said they "suffered" in the heat of Bahrain last month, and one of their players was pulling for strong wind, sleet and temperatures of 7 or 9 celsius (50 or so Fahrenheit), and see how the Bahrainis like the cold.
This is fun. Whoever advances will be the Official Underdog of the 2010 World Cup. Read more!
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Another Batch of World Rankings
The idea of world rankings in soccer always has struck me as something of a fool's errand.
Especially when it is statistically driven ... by anything more sophisticated than who beat whom and where in the last year or so.
Certain sports lend themselves to statistical analysis ... because the numbers they generate are so enormous that, eventually, you have a sort of "truth" revealed by close study.
Baseball is the prime example of this, with 162 games in the major leagues, and 600-plus plate appearances for position players and 180-plus innings for starting pitcher. A bad player is not going to compile good numbers over that large a sample.
Basketball isn't far behind. Especially the NBA. Again, lots of games, lots of numbers.
Soccer? I am convinced that any dozen reasonably well-informed fans from anywhere on the planet are as likely to pick out the quarterfinalists of the upcoming World Cup as is the numbers-heavy system espn.com unveiled today.
The U.S.-based sports network commissioned Nate Silver, best-known now as a left-leaning but numbers-driven political analyst and blogger and, previously, as a mover in the "Baseball Prospectus" brands.
He has compiled a top-100 ranking of the world's soccer rankings for espn.com, which indicates the self-proclaimed "world-wide leader" finally is sitting up and taking notice of the sport.
I am a proponent of statistical analysis, and I give credence to the conclusions in many cases -- particularly in the two sports named above.
Soccer, however, is different. I am sure of it.
Not enough matches. Not enough matches against comparable competition. Not enough matches by the key players.
And, also, soccer is a famously fluky sport. In a goal-scarce universe, one lucky shot can lead a bad team over a good one, or a middling team over a great one.
But at the end of the World Cup, we almost all know who is going to be hanging around. And we don't need statistical analysis to tell us. We don't need a million numbers crunched.
Right this minute, I will give you six teams that will be in the quarterfinals at South Africa 2010: Brazil, Spain, England, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.
I did that without adding up goals and comparing scores and giving points for a country's players who do well in club competition. We already know that.
What Nate Silver is doing for espn.com is interesting. It's fun. It stimulates discussion. But it doesn't tell us anything we don't already know.
There is the global elite, most of which can be depended on to go deep into the World Cup. There is the second tier of 10 or 12 nations that have a reasonably good shot of getting to the knockout phase. And there are the next 20 or so who might be in the current World Cup, but have little or no chance of surviving group play.
We all know this. Without studying statistics.
Bringing on a Big Brain like Nate Silver is an interesting concept. But I believe he has little or nothing new to tell us about the World Cup, and how it will sort out. The game resists statistical predictions much more specific than "never bet against Brazil." Read more!
Especially when it is statistically driven ... by anything more sophisticated than who beat whom and where in the last year or so.
Certain sports lend themselves to statistical analysis ... because the numbers they generate are so enormous that, eventually, you have a sort of "truth" revealed by close study.
Baseball is the prime example of this, with 162 games in the major leagues, and 600-plus plate appearances for position players and 180-plus innings for starting pitcher. A bad player is not going to compile good numbers over that large a sample.
Basketball isn't far behind. Especially the NBA. Again, lots of games, lots of numbers.
Soccer? I am convinced that any dozen reasonably well-informed fans from anywhere on the planet are as likely to pick out the quarterfinalists of the upcoming World Cup as is the numbers-heavy system espn.com unveiled today.
The U.S.-based sports network commissioned Nate Silver, best-known now as a left-leaning but numbers-driven political analyst and blogger and, previously, as a mover in the "Baseball Prospectus" brands.
He has compiled a top-100 ranking of the world's soccer rankings for espn.com, which indicates the self-proclaimed "world-wide leader" finally is sitting up and taking notice of the sport.
I am a proponent of statistical analysis, and I give credence to the conclusions in many cases -- particularly in the two sports named above.
Soccer, however, is different. I am sure of it.
Not enough matches. Not enough matches against comparable competition. Not enough matches by the key players.
And, also, soccer is a famously fluky sport. In a goal-scarce universe, one lucky shot can lead a bad team over a good one, or a middling team over a great one.
But at the end of the World Cup, we almost all know who is going to be hanging around. And we don't need statistical analysis to tell us. We don't need a million numbers crunched.
Right this minute, I will give you six teams that will be in the quarterfinals at South Africa 2010: Brazil, Spain, England, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.
I did that without adding up goals and comparing scores and giving points for a country's players who do well in club competition. We already know that.
What Nate Silver is doing for espn.com is interesting. It's fun. It stimulates discussion. But it doesn't tell us anything we don't already know.
There is the global elite, most of which can be depended on to go deep into the World Cup. There is the second tier of 10 or 12 nations that have a reasonably good shot of getting to the knockout phase. And there are the next 20 or so who might be in the current World Cup, but have little or no chance of surviving group play.
We all know this. Without studying statistics.
Bringing on a Big Brain like Nate Silver is an interesting concept. But I believe he has little or nothing new to tell us about the World Cup, and how it will sort out. The game resists statistical predictions much more specific than "never bet against Brazil." Read more!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Ronaldo Out of Bosnia-Herzegovina Playoffs
Some of us have been quietly rooting for Portugal to make the World Cup because we want the world's best players to be at South Africa 2010. Just as we were pulling for Lionel Messi and Argentina, despite the Argentines being coached by that loutish boor (yes, that's redundant, but he's worthy of it) Diego Maradona.
Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal, current Fifa player of the year. Messi, previous player of the year. Just nice to have them around, let them do their thing, on the biggest of stages. While in their prime.
Ronaldo, however, will not be in South Africa -- unless his Portuguese teammates get him there.
Ronaldo has been ruled out of the home-and-home playoff between Portugal and a very solid Bosnia-Herzegovina side. This is one of the four second-place playoffs going on among European teams, and will generate four World Cup participants.
Not having CR9 can't help Portugal's chances. Portugal isn't a one-man team, but the current squad isn't widely considered to be the equal of the Golden Generation that came through about a decade ago, the one led by Luis Figo that won a Euro Cup.
But, there's nothing to be done about it. Ronaldo has had a bad ankle for more than a month now, and he aggravated it in a Portugal match back on Oct. 10, and it hasn't gotten better -- despite the best efforts of his club team, Real Madrid.
Earlier, it seemed as if this might be one off those club-vs.-country things, but it now seems fairly clear Ronaldo just can't play. Unless this represents an absolute cave-in by Portugal and coach Carlos Quieroz.
Portugal rallied sharply to finish second in its European group, and perhaps that momentum can take it past Bosnia.
The Portuguese talent cupboard isn't bare. Quieroz still can call on the likes of Simao, naturalized Brazilians attackers Deco and Liedson, and Duda and Bosingwa. And Nani, the 22-year-old from Cape Verde, probably will take over on the right wing for Ronaldo ... and Nani is good enough to play for Manchester United.
Still, you'd prefer to have the player of the year lining up for you with the World Cup on the line, but Portugal won't have that luxury Saturday, in Lisboa, and Nov. 18 in BH. Read more!
Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal, current Fifa player of the year. Messi, previous player of the year. Just nice to have them around, let them do their thing, on the biggest of stages. While in their prime.
Ronaldo, however, will not be in South Africa -- unless his Portuguese teammates get him there.
Ronaldo has been ruled out of the home-and-home playoff between Portugal and a very solid Bosnia-Herzegovina side. This is one of the four second-place playoffs going on among European teams, and will generate four World Cup participants.
Not having CR9 can't help Portugal's chances. Portugal isn't a one-man team, but the current squad isn't widely considered to be the equal of the Golden Generation that came through about a decade ago, the one led by Luis Figo that won a Euro Cup.
But, there's nothing to be done about it. Ronaldo has had a bad ankle for more than a month now, and he aggravated it in a Portugal match back on Oct. 10, and it hasn't gotten better -- despite the best efforts of his club team, Real Madrid.
Earlier, it seemed as if this might be one off those club-vs.-country things, but it now seems fairly clear Ronaldo just can't play. Unless this represents an absolute cave-in by Portugal and coach Carlos Quieroz.
Portugal rallied sharply to finish second in its European group, and perhaps that momentum can take it past Bosnia.
The Portuguese talent cupboard isn't bare. Quieroz still can call on the likes of Simao, naturalized Brazilians attackers Deco and Liedson, and Duda and Bosingwa. And Nani, the 22-year-old from Cape Verde, probably will take over on the right wing for Ronaldo ... and Nani is good enough to play for Manchester United.
Still, you'd prefer to have the player of the year lining up for you with the World Cup on the line, but Portugal won't have that luxury Saturday, in Lisboa, and Nov. 18 in BH. Read more!
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