These four European second-place playoffs sounded more intereresting in theory than in practice. I'm looking at the pairings now and having trouble conjuring victory for the four unseeded teams.
Here they are, with home team in Game 1 listed first:
Ireland vs. France
Portugal vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina
Greece vs. Ukraine
Russia vs. Slovenia
France, Portugal, Greece and Russia are the seeded teams. And which has the best chance of losing? Or at least some chance?
Hmm. I suppose my choice would be ...
France. And, mind, I don't think the French will lose.
Before getting into that, I do now wish the thing had been unseeded. So that there was a chance France could play Russia and Bosnia could play Slovenia, etc. Those would be fairer fights, and the stakes would be just as enormous. But the FIFA/UEFA decision to make the top four (according to FIFA world rankings) unable to play each other ... takes some drama out of this. Though anything can, in theory, happen in a home-and-home playoff.
I can't see Greece losing to Ukraine. The rap on Greece, most of the past decade, is that is struggles to score but it just put up five goals on Latvia, a pretty good side, and so those scoring issues appear to be less acute. And Ukraine isn't a bad side, but it's in the this tournament only because England needed to win at home against Croatia to clinch its group, and did, and then didn't need a result at Ukraine, which defeated the English, and finished second. Ukraine doesn't inspire much enthusiasm -- though it seems to be the unseeded team the seeded quartet feared most.
Nor can I see Portugal losing to Bosnia. The Portuguese are hot, having finished with a rush to secure second in their group. Plus, Bosnia just gave up five goals to a Spanish team that was Just Kicking the Ball Around, having nothing to gain or lose -- after having clinched its group months ago.
And Russia and Slovenia? Don't see the unseeded team winning that one, either. Russia came This Close to defeating the Germans at Moscow, which would have won the group for Mother Russia. Slovenia is tough in defense, but it's a itty-bitty country that can't help but be overawed by Russia.
Ireland and France? Ireland has a chance. A decent one. For two reasons: 1) Irish grit and 2) The Domenech Factor.
Ireland is a hard-headed side that yields goals grudgingly. Scoring them always is the issue for the Irish, who are slow and modestly gifted, technically ... and may, in fact, be the least athletic team ranked in the world's top 40.
Meanwhile, France continues to run out various incarnations of an all-star team that rarely impressed in qualifying. It seems to be about Raymond Domenech, their goofy coach, who somehow has destroyed French elan and turned his First XI (whomever it happens to be just now) into a nervous, fidgity crew.
French talent remains far, far better than that the Irish can call on. Ireland has no one like Thierry Henry, even in his athetic dotage.
Still, this process has the potential to be interesting, especially if the underdogs can get a result in the first match, on Nov. 14.
The return match will be Nov. 18. And at the end of that day, I fully expect the four seeds to be headed for South Africa 2010.
Read more!
Monday, October 19, 2009
Sunday, October 18, 2009
SA2010 Better Off without Maradona?
No question that we prefer to see a World Cup with Argentina in it.
But the bad news here is ... Diego Maradona likely will be in South Africa, too.
Maradona happened to be on the sidelines when Argentina won at Uruguay on Wednesday, clinching a berth in the 2010 World Cup. So, the odds are strong the mercurial (if not goofy, if not barking) coach will be there, too.
That may not be to the good, as the latest controversy surrounding Maradona seems to indicate.
Maradona blasted his critics in the Argentine media, after the 1-0 victory over Uruguay, and at some point was more than a little vulgar, in the process.
A cursory search of the web yields no transcript of Maradona's rant, but it was foul enough that FIFA announced it will investigate his comments.
That's the Maradona we don't really need. The rude and crude and paranoid android who was on display in the interview room Wednesday night.
If only it were possible to Argentina -- without Diego. Alas, it seems as if they are no joined at the hip. And perhaps at the lip. A pity, actually. Read more!
But the bad news here is ... Diego Maradona likely will be in South Africa, too.
Maradona happened to be on the sidelines when Argentina won at Uruguay on Wednesday, clinching a berth in the 2010 World Cup. So, the odds are strong the mercurial (if not goofy, if not barking) coach will be there, too.
That may not be to the good, as the latest controversy surrounding Maradona seems to indicate.
Maradona blasted his critics in the Argentine media, after the 1-0 victory over Uruguay, and at some point was more than a little vulgar, in the process.
A cursory search of the web yields no transcript of Maradona's rant, but it was foul enough that FIFA announced it will investigate his comments.
That's the Maradona we don't really need. The rude and crude and paranoid android who was on display in the interview room Wednesday night.
If only it were possible to Argentina -- without Diego. Alas, it seems as if they are no joined at the hip. And perhaps at the lip. A pity, actually. Read more!
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Ghana Wins World Cup ... Under-20 Version
An African team wins a major FIFA competition staged in Africa, defeating Brazil in the final ...
Supporters of African soccer have to hope that what happened today, in Egypt, in the under-20 tournament, can be replicated in South Africa at the Big Boy World Cup in 2010.
Ghana defeated Brazil in a shootout to win the under-20 world championship. Brazil missed its final three attempts shots, and Ghana won 4-3 after six pairs of players walked up to the penalty spot.
African soccer has often been the wild card of global football.
I'm thinking of Senegal and its 1-0 defeat over defending champion France at the 2002 World Cup ... and Nigeria 3-2 over Spain at the 1998 World Cup ... and Cameroon 1-0 over defending champion Argetnina at the 1990 World Cup -- plus Cameroon's advance to the quarterfinals before it lost 3-2 to England in extra time.
African teams, however, rarely have been able to sustain their momentum, and never have been considered serious threats to go deep into the World Cup.
That may change next year and for one obvious reason -- the World Cup will be played in Africa for the first time.
Evidence of a "home continent advange" is extensive. All of the championships won by European sides have been won on the European continent. Argentina and Uruguay each won their two championships in the New World.
South Korea reached the semifinals of the 2002 World Cup, a singular achievement for the country's team, when it was the co-host of the tournament, along with Japan.
So, Africa's time may be coming. Soon.
I am on record, on this blog, as having predicted an African team will make the semifinals at South Africa.
When I wrote that, I might have been thinking of Cote d'Ivoire. Now we may have to include Ghana in our "potential semifinalist" thinking. Playing at "home" is a big advantage, and when you already have a good side ... Read more!
Supporters of African soccer have to hope that what happened today, in Egypt, in the under-20 tournament, can be replicated in South Africa at the Big Boy World Cup in 2010.
Ghana defeated Brazil in a shootout to win the under-20 world championship. Brazil missed its final three attempts shots, and Ghana won 4-3 after six pairs of players walked up to the penalty spot.
African soccer has often been the wild card of global football.
I'm thinking of Senegal and its 1-0 defeat over defending champion France at the 2002 World Cup ... and Nigeria 3-2 over Spain at the 1998 World Cup ... and Cameroon 1-0 over defending champion Argetnina at the 1990 World Cup -- plus Cameroon's advance to the quarterfinals before it lost 3-2 to England in extra time.
African teams, however, rarely have been able to sustain their momentum, and never have been considered serious threats to go deep into the World Cup.
That may change next year and for one obvious reason -- the World Cup will be played in Africa for the first time.
Evidence of a "home continent advange" is extensive. All of the championships won by European sides have been won on the European continent. Argentina and Uruguay each won their two championships in the New World.
South Korea reached the semifinals of the 2002 World Cup, a singular achievement for the country's team, when it was the co-host of the tournament, along with Japan.
So, Africa's time may be coming. Soon.
I am on record, on this blog, as having predicted an African team will make the semifinals at South Africa.
When I wrote that, I might have been thinking of Cote d'Ivoire. Now we may have to include Ghana in our "potential semifinalist" thinking. Playing at "home" is a big advantage, and when you already have a good side ... Read more!
Friday, October 16, 2009
France, Russia, Portugal, Greece Seeded
We figured it would be France, Russia, Portugal and Greece ... and it is.
The four playoffs between the eight runners-up in European qualifying will determine the final four Europe sides into South Africa 2010.
News emerged a few weeks ago that the draw would be seeded, and not just four random pairings. Meaning the top four teams will be matched against the lower four. Prompting one Irish player to criticize FIFA and UEFA for not letting everyone know, from the start, how the process worked.
The latest FIFA rankings, released today, were used to choose the four seeded group runners-up teams, and France (9), Portugal (10), Russia (12) and Greece (16) rank ahead of Ukraine (22), Ireland (24), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42) and Slovenia (49).
The draw will be made Monday.
It doesn't seem quite fair that all the participants didn't know how this would work, from Day 1, and FIFA needs to make it clear if UEFA uses this method again, four years hence.
But everything else FIFA does is seeded, including the World Cup draw.
Sure, Ireland would like a chance to play Bosnia or Slovenia, and France has to be pleased it can't possibly be paired with Portugal or Russia. But it isn't as if FIFA hasn't seeded teams before.
And a home-and-home ... anything is possible. A tie on the road, a victory at home, and you're in. Pretty much the formula for success in any international soccer competition.
I'm looking forward to it. I know it's nerve-racking for the teams involved, but it should make for some entertaining matches, next month. Read more!
The four playoffs between the eight runners-up in European qualifying will determine the final four Europe sides into South Africa 2010.
News emerged a few weeks ago that the draw would be seeded, and not just four random pairings. Meaning the top four teams will be matched against the lower four. Prompting one Irish player to criticize FIFA and UEFA for not letting everyone know, from the start, how the process worked.
The latest FIFA rankings, released today, were used to choose the four seeded group runners-up teams, and France (9), Portugal (10), Russia (12) and Greece (16) rank ahead of Ukraine (22), Ireland (24), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42) and Slovenia (49).
The draw will be made Monday.
It doesn't seem quite fair that all the participants didn't know how this would work, from Day 1, and FIFA needs to make it clear if UEFA uses this method again, four years hence.
But everything else FIFA does is seeded, including the World Cup draw.
Sure, Ireland would like a chance to play Bosnia or Slovenia, and France has to be pleased it can't possibly be paired with Portugal or Russia. But it isn't as if FIFA hasn't seeded teams before.
And a home-and-home ... anything is possible. A tie on the road, a victory at home, and you're in. Pretty much the formula for success in any international soccer competition.
I'm looking forward to it. I know it's nerve-racking for the teams involved, but it should make for some entertaining matches, next month. Read more!
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Not Many Big Names Missing the Party
Most of the planet's top teams are on their way to South Africa 2010.
Typically, it seems as if one of the Big Kids doesn't qualify. Maybe England. Or the Netherlands. Somebody pretty good doesn't make it. Someone serious fans will miss.
That is not really the case, so far in the 2010 cycle. For a while, Mexico seemed to be in trouble. And then Argentina was at great risk. But both are in, and ...
So far, the highest-ranked team not to make South Africa, according to the most recent FIFA rankings, is Croatia, at No. 9. Seems a little high, but there they are.
The next-highest nations not going to South Africa are ...
18. Czech Republic. The Czechs seemed to find themselves in the middle of a generational change, and ended up in a tough qualifying group (Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Northern Ireland) and finished third.
19. Bulgaria. Bulgaria is ranked in the top 20? How did that happen? Bulgaria won only three of 10 matches in a group that included Cyprus, Montenegro and Georgia. No great loss to SA2010.
22. Israel. Not bad, but not that good. Never seemed to win the key match in a fairly tough group -- but one that lacked a superpower, unless you count Switzerland and Greece, and I don't.
26. Romania. Finished fifth in Group 7, behind Austria and Lithuania, ahead of only the Faroe Islands. So, no loss.
And please note: Romania, at 26? That means of the 25 highest-ranked teams in the world, 21 already have qualified for South Africa 2o1o.
Yes, it would be nice to have a few long-shot teams in the World Cup. And there are ... a few.
Japan is No. 40. Honduras is 42. Slovakia is 45, South Korea 49, North Korea 90. Those four are in.
And they will be joined by either Bahrain (64) or New Zealand (100), who are in a playoff. Slovenia (54) is in a playoff, too.
But the real long shot at South Africa ... could be South Africa. Ranked only No. 73.
The host nation could, by itself, be enough of a lovable underdog story to fill the 2010 quota for lovable underdog stories. Its matches will get plenty of attention, and if it can win a time or two? A big deal.
Meanwhile, most of the rest of us would just as soon watch the global elite. Which are queuing up quite nicely for the 2010 World Cup. Read more!
Typically, it seems as if one of the Big Kids doesn't qualify. Maybe England. Or the Netherlands. Somebody pretty good doesn't make it. Someone serious fans will miss.
That is not really the case, so far in the 2010 cycle. For a while, Mexico seemed to be in trouble. And then Argentina was at great risk. But both are in, and ...
So far, the highest-ranked team not to make South Africa, according to the most recent FIFA rankings, is Croatia, at No. 9. Seems a little high, but there they are.
The next-highest nations not going to South Africa are ...
18. Czech Republic. The Czechs seemed to find themselves in the middle of a generational change, and ended up in a tough qualifying group (Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Northern Ireland) and finished third.
19. Bulgaria. Bulgaria is ranked in the top 20? How did that happen? Bulgaria won only three of 10 matches in a group that included Cyprus, Montenegro and Georgia. No great loss to SA2010.
22. Israel. Not bad, but not that good. Never seemed to win the key match in a fairly tough group -- but one that lacked a superpower, unless you count Switzerland and Greece, and I don't.
26. Romania. Finished fifth in Group 7, behind Austria and Lithuania, ahead of only the Faroe Islands. So, no loss.
And please note: Romania, at 26? That means of the 25 highest-ranked teams in the world, 21 already have qualified for South Africa 2o1o.
Yes, it would be nice to have a few long-shot teams in the World Cup. And there are ... a few.
Japan is No. 40. Honduras is 42. Slovakia is 45, South Korea 49, North Korea 90. Those four are in.
And they will be joined by either Bahrain (64) or New Zealand (100), who are in a playoff. Slovenia (54) is in a playoff, too.
But the real long shot at South Africa ... could be South Africa. Ranked only No. 73.
The host nation could, by itself, be enough of a lovable underdog story to fill the 2010 quota for lovable underdog stories. Its matches will get plenty of attention, and if it can win a time or two? A big deal.
Meanwhile, most of the rest of us would just as soon watch the global elite. Which are queuing up quite nicely for the 2010 World Cup. Read more!
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Argentina, Honduras among Four Going to SA2010
Argentina will be in the World Cup finals, as per usual.
Honduras will, as well. But there is nothing "usual" about that.
In the last huge (32 matches) day of South Africa 2010 qualifying, Argentina did what it was supposed to do, thanks to (or in spite of) the leadership of coach Diego Maradona.
Not that it wasn't a touch-and-go thing, for Diego Maradona & Co. They needed a goal in the 84th minute to defeat Uruguay, 1-0, in the showdown for the fourth and final guaranteed South America berth for South Africa 2010.
And they needed perhaps the most anonymous player on a team of international stars -- reserve midfielder Mario Bolatti -- to score it.
But, after months of sturm und drang, Diego and the Argentines are headed for their 10th consecutive World Cup finals.
Honduras had, by far, the most dramatic route to South Africa of the other three qualifiers today.
Honduras began the day sitting fourth in the Concacaf standings, and fourth is good only for a nerve-racking home-and-home playoff with the Conmebol No.5 team. Getting up to third is critical, because Concacaf has three guaranteed berths.
Honduras played at arch-rival El Salvador, and needed a victory -- combined with something less than a victory by Costa Rica, which was playing the United States at Washington D.C.
It looked very grim for the Catrachos, as Honduras's team is known, when Costa Rica striker Bryan Ruiz put in goals in the 21st and 24th minute. Actually, we were working on this blog post, and already had Honduras playing the home-and-home with Uruguay, No. 5 in the final Conmebol standings. Then it began to turn.
Carlos Pavon scored for Honduras in the 64th minute. Michael Bradley scored for the U.S. in the 72nd.
Costa Rica, fighting off repeated U.S. attacks, appeared as if it would hold on, especially when U.S. defender Oguchi Onyewu went down with an injury in the 84th minute, leaving the Americans playing with 10 -- because they had used their three substitutes.
Then the match got weird. Referee Benito Archundia of Mexico sent off Costa Rica coach Rene Simoes for stalling during a substitution, and his assistant soon followed him to the locker room.
Five minutes of extra time were added on, and with about 30 seconds left the U.S. got a corner kick from Landon Donovan who lofted a nice ball to defender Jonathan Bornstein -- who headed it in basically as the match ended.
Suddenly, Honduras had three points today, Costa Rica had only one (for the 2-2 tie), and they were level on points, at 16, but Honduras won the goal-differential tiebreaker -- and is headed for South Africa. It is only the second time Honduras has qualified for the World Cup final and, rest assured, the country is one huge party all night tonight.
Other teams who punched their tickets to South Africa:
--Switzerland. The Swiss made it more nerve-racking than it needed to be, but holding Israel to a 0-0 tie was enough to give them the championship of Europe Group 2, one point ahead of Greece.
--Slovakia. The Slovaks are still looking for their scoring punch, but an own goal by Poland's Seweryn Gancarczyk -- in the third minute -- led to a 1-0 victory by Slovakia and clinched its first appearance in the World Cup finals as an indepedent nation. Slovakia lost 2-0 at home in its previous game to put itself at risk, but its suspension-weakened squad managed to keep Poland from scoring, and now it is headed to South Africa.
The other big development today was the finalizing of the eight-team lineup for Europe's home-and-home playoffs for the continent's final four berths in South Africa.
The octet: France, Portugal, Russia, Greece, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Ukraine. And look for the first four to be seeded against the second four when the draw for the playoffs is made on Monday.
So, we now have 23 teams with reservations for South Africa. With four still to come from Europe, three from Africa and one each from the Costa Rica-Uruguay and Bahrain-New Zealand playoffs.
Read more!
Honduras will, as well. But there is nothing "usual" about that.
In the last huge (32 matches) day of South Africa 2010 qualifying, Argentina did what it was supposed to do, thanks to (or in spite of) the leadership of coach Diego Maradona.
Not that it wasn't a touch-and-go thing, for Diego Maradona & Co. They needed a goal in the 84th minute to defeat Uruguay, 1-0, in the showdown for the fourth and final guaranteed South America berth for South Africa 2010.
And they needed perhaps the most anonymous player on a team of international stars -- reserve midfielder Mario Bolatti -- to score it.
But, after months of sturm und drang, Diego and the Argentines are headed for their 10th consecutive World Cup finals.
Honduras had, by far, the most dramatic route to South Africa of the other three qualifiers today.
Honduras began the day sitting fourth in the Concacaf standings, and fourth is good only for a nerve-racking home-and-home playoff with the Conmebol No.5 team. Getting up to third is critical, because Concacaf has three guaranteed berths.
Honduras played at arch-rival El Salvador, and needed a victory -- combined with something less than a victory by Costa Rica, which was playing the United States at Washington D.C.
It looked very grim for the Catrachos, as Honduras's team is known, when Costa Rica striker Bryan Ruiz put in goals in the 21st and 24th minute. Actually, we were working on this blog post, and already had Honduras playing the home-and-home with Uruguay, No. 5 in the final Conmebol standings. Then it began to turn.
Carlos Pavon scored for Honduras in the 64th minute. Michael Bradley scored for the U.S. in the 72nd.
Costa Rica, fighting off repeated U.S. attacks, appeared as if it would hold on, especially when U.S. defender Oguchi Onyewu went down with an injury in the 84th minute, leaving the Americans playing with 10 -- because they had used their three substitutes.
Then the match got weird. Referee Benito Archundia of Mexico sent off Costa Rica coach Rene Simoes for stalling during a substitution, and his assistant soon followed him to the locker room.
Five minutes of extra time were added on, and with about 30 seconds left the U.S. got a corner kick from Landon Donovan who lofted a nice ball to defender Jonathan Bornstein -- who headed it in basically as the match ended.
Suddenly, Honduras had three points today, Costa Rica had only one (for the 2-2 tie), and they were level on points, at 16, but Honduras won the goal-differential tiebreaker -- and is headed for South Africa. It is only the second time Honduras has qualified for the World Cup final and, rest assured, the country is one huge party all night tonight.
Other teams who punched their tickets to South Africa:
--Switzerland. The Swiss made it more nerve-racking than it needed to be, but holding Israel to a 0-0 tie was enough to give them the championship of Europe Group 2, one point ahead of Greece.
--Slovakia. The Slovaks are still looking for their scoring punch, but an own goal by Poland's Seweryn Gancarczyk -- in the third minute -- led to a 1-0 victory by Slovakia and clinched its first appearance in the World Cup finals as an indepedent nation. Slovakia lost 2-0 at home in its previous game to put itself at risk, but its suspension-weakened squad managed to keep Poland from scoring, and now it is headed to South Africa.
The other big development today was the finalizing of the eight-team lineup for Europe's home-and-home playoffs for the continent's final four berths in South Africa.
The octet: France, Portugal, Russia, Greece, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Ukraine. And look for the first four to be seeded against the second four when the draw for the playoffs is made on Monday.
So, we now have 23 teams with reservations for South Africa. With four still to come from Europe, three from Africa and one each from the Costa Rica-Uruguay and Bahrain-New Zealand playoffs.
Read more!
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Wednesday: Looking at the Big Matches
Thirty-two South Africa 2010 qualifying matches on Wednesday. The last hugely busy day on the World Cup qualifying schedule.
Three sorts of matches on tap.
1. The plurality that have no realistic bearing on South Africa 2010. Matches in which kids will get their first cap and not even the most rabid of fans will have much emotion invested.
2. The chunk that involve one team with finals aspirations ... and one team without any. The fascinating matches that leave everyone wondering if the teams with nothing to play for ... play as if they do have something to play for.
3. The minority of matches that matter to both teams.
Let's look at those from categories 2 and 3, in ascending order of intrigue.
--Ukraine at Andorra. The Ukrainians sneak into second place in Europe Group 6 with a victory over puny Andorra. Ukraine got a scheduling break; England clinched at home against Croatia, then lost 1-0 at Ukraine in a match that didn't really matter to the English. Flip those matches on the schedule and it would be Croatia playing to clinch second, at Kazakhstan. Now, Croatia needs a victory and an Andorran miracle. Good luck with that.
--Slovenia at San Marino. Slovenia finishes no worse than second in Europe Group 3 if it can defeat the feeblest team in UEFA. San Marino has been outscored 44-1 in nine matches. Slovenia will be looking for a big score to make sure it wins a goal-differential battle with Slovakia if the latter loses at Poland -- a result that would make Slovenia champions of the group, avoiding the second-place playoffs.
--Portugal at Malta. The Portuguese can complete their charge into second place in Europe Group 1 with a victory over the Maltese -- who have been outscored 22-0 in qualifying. Even without the injured Cristian Ronaldo, Portugal should have this wrapped up in a matter of minutes, and then gets ready for the home-and-home with some other second-place Euro squad for a South Africa berth. Note: Portugal had six points from its first five qualifying matches but is in position to claim 13 points from its second five.
--Luxembourg at Greece. Another match that shouldn't be close, but ... Greece does no worse than second in Europe Group 2 with a victory, and could finish first via goal differential if Switzerland loses to Israel. Greece won 3-0 at Luxembourg 13 months ago. But if the Greeks somehow to contrive to tie the Grand Duchy guys, Israel could jump them for second by beating the Swiss.
--Honduras at El Salvador. Honduras needs a victory -- and a Costa Rica defeat at the United States -- to secure the third and final automatic Concacaf berth in South Africa. Los Catrachos may have a harder time than the hexagonal standings would indicate because 1) they are coming off a devastating home loss to the Yankees and 2) El Salvador is their historic rival. (See: The Soccer War of 1969.)
--Costa Rica at United States. A more meaningful match than the one above because the Ticos control their fate; they return to the finals if they can win a qualifier in the States for the first time in 24 years. Luckily, for Costa Rica, the U.S. already has clinched and may be distracted by the automobile accident today that badly injured forward Charlie Davies. However, U.S. coach Bob Bradley insists his team will play hard, with its best XI, because it wants to finish atop the Concacaf standings, which it currently leads.
--Ecuador at Chile. Ecuador sits sixth in the South America table, and sixth brings you nothing, but the Ecuadorans can jump up to No. 5 -- and the home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf -- if it can win against the already-qualified Chileans (and the Argentina-Uruguay match has a loser). How much does Chile care? And can Ecuador recover from its critical home defeat vs. Uruguay last Saturday?
--Slovakia at Poland. The Slovaks are looking for their first World Cup finals as an independent nation, having just missed a chance to clinch Europe Group 3 when they lost 2-0 at home to Slovenia. Poland has disappointed, and is out of contention, but if the Poles care enough, and the Slovaks are too tight (and miss their four suspended players too much) ... Slovakia could find itself in the second-place playoffs.
--Israel at Switzerland. One of the two matches in which both sides have something to play for. Switzerland clinches Europe Group 2 with a victory or tie. Israel can slip into second -- and a spot in the second-place playoffs -- with a victory combined with a Greece tie or loss at home to Luxembourg. Greece not beating Luxembourg is unlikely, but weirder things have happened.
--Argentina at Uruguay. The Match of the Day. The winner finishes fourth in the Conmebol standings and gets the region's final automatic berth at South Africa 2010. Argentina finishes fourth with a tie -- unless Ecuador wins by five goals at Chile. Uruguay has been the steadier side, especially since Diego Maradona took over Argentina, a year ago. But if we compare sheer talent, the Argentines must rate as favorites, even on the road ... and even though Maradona is winless in three road qualifying matches as coach. If Argentina loses and Ecuador wins, Ecuador finishes fifth and gains the home-and-home playoffs with the No. 4 side out of Concacaf for a berth. And Argentina is done. Lots of tension here.
Read more!
Three sorts of matches on tap.
1. The plurality that have no realistic bearing on South Africa 2010. Matches in which kids will get their first cap and not even the most rabid of fans will have much emotion invested.
2. The chunk that involve one team with finals aspirations ... and one team without any. The fascinating matches that leave everyone wondering if the teams with nothing to play for ... play as if they do have something to play for.
3. The minority of matches that matter to both teams.
Let's look at those from categories 2 and 3, in ascending order of intrigue.
--Ukraine at Andorra. The Ukrainians sneak into second place in Europe Group 6 with a victory over puny Andorra. Ukraine got a scheduling break; England clinched at home against Croatia, then lost 1-0 at Ukraine in a match that didn't really matter to the English. Flip those matches on the schedule and it would be Croatia playing to clinch second, at Kazakhstan. Now, Croatia needs a victory and an Andorran miracle. Good luck with that.
--Slovenia at San Marino. Slovenia finishes no worse than second in Europe Group 3 if it can defeat the feeblest team in UEFA. San Marino has been outscored 44-1 in nine matches. Slovenia will be looking for a big score to make sure it wins a goal-differential battle with Slovakia if the latter loses at Poland -- a result that would make Slovenia champions of the group, avoiding the second-place playoffs.
--Portugal at Malta. The Portuguese can complete their charge into second place in Europe Group 1 with a victory over the Maltese -- who have been outscored 22-0 in qualifying. Even without the injured Cristian Ronaldo, Portugal should have this wrapped up in a matter of minutes, and then gets ready for the home-and-home with some other second-place Euro squad for a South Africa berth. Note: Portugal had six points from its first five qualifying matches but is in position to claim 13 points from its second five.
--Luxembourg at Greece. Another match that shouldn't be close, but ... Greece does no worse than second in Europe Group 2 with a victory, and could finish first via goal differential if Switzerland loses to Israel. Greece won 3-0 at Luxembourg 13 months ago. But if the Greeks somehow to contrive to tie the Grand Duchy guys, Israel could jump them for second by beating the Swiss.
--Honduras at El Salvador. Honduras needs a victory -- and a Costa Rica defeat at the United States -- to secure the third and final automatic Concacaf berth in South Africa. Los Catrachos may have a harder time than the hexagonal standings would indicate because 1) they are coming off a devastating home loss to the Yankees and 2) El Salvador is their historic rival. (See: The Soccer War of 1969.)
--Costa Rica at United States. A more meaningful match than the one above because the Ticos control their fate; they return to the finals if they can win a qualifier in the States for the first time in 24 years. Luckily, for Costa Rica, the U.S. already has clinched and may be distracted by the automobile accident today that badly injured forward Charlie Davies. However, U.S. coach Bob Bradley insists his team will play hard, with its best XI, because it wants to finish atop the Concacaf standings, which it currently leads.
--Ecuador at Chile. Ecuador sits sixth in the South America table, and sixth brings you nothing, but the Ecuadorans can jump up to No. 5 -- and the home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf -- if it can win against the already-qualified Chileans (and the Argentina-Uruguay match has a loser). How much does Chile care? And can Ecuador recover from its critical home defeat vs. Uruguay last Saturday?
--Slovakia at Poland. The Slovaks are looking for their first World Cup finals as an independent nation, having just missed a chance to clinch Europe Group 3 when they lost 2-0 at home to Slovenia. Poland has disappointed, and is out of contention, but if the Poles care enough, and the Slovaks are too tight (and miss their four suspended players too much) ... Slovakia could find itself in the second-place playoffs.
--Israel at Switzerland. One of the two matches in which both sides have something to play for. Switzerland clinches Europe Group 2 with a victory or tie. Israel can slip into second -- and a spot in the second-place playoffs -- with a victory combined with a Greece tie or loss at home to Luxembourg. Greece not beating Luxembourg is unlikely, but weirder things have happened.
--Argentina at Uruguay. The Match of the Day. The winner finishes fourth in the Conmebol standings and gets the region's final automatic berth at South Africa 2010. Argentina finishes fourth with a tie -- unless Ecuador wins by five goals at Chile. Uruguay has been the steadier side, especially since Diego Maradona took over Argentina, a year ago. But if we compare sheer talent, the Argentines must rate as favorites, even on the road ... and even though Maradona is winless in three road qualifying matches as coach. If Argentina loses and Ecuador wins, Ecuador finishes fifth and gains the home-and-home playoffs with the No. 4 side out of Concacaf for a berth. And Argentina is done. Lots of tension here.
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