Monday, October 12, 2009

Messi, Diego: More about Argentina

These guys can't stop making news. Or prompting columnists and analysts to write and talk about them.

Argentina. Diego Maradona. Lionel Messi.

OK, those are three pretty compelling concepts in the world of soccer.

Argentina's profoundly uneven qualifying campaign comes to a close -- well, at least the South America portion of it -- on Wednesday when the albicelestes play Uruguay just across the River Plate, at Montevideo.

If Argentina wins, it finishes fourth and gains at automatic berth to South Africa 2010. A tie, it almost certainly finishes fourth in the South America standings.

But an Argentina defeat puts Uruguay in the No. 4 slot, and leaves Argentina fifth, and headed for a playoff with the No. 4 team out of Concacaf ... or even sixth, behind Ecuador (if it wins at Chile) -- and out of the World Cup, as of Wednesday night.

Anyway, at this moment, Messi may want to make an appearance in crunch time.

Author Harry Harris has noticed that Messi, FIFA's World Player of the Year for 2007, has gone missing in action. And it might be nice if he showed up for the crucial match with Uruguay.

What Messi's issues might be are open to speculation. The author of the linked piece (above) suggests Messi is "overawed" by the idea of national icon Maradona as coach of the team.

That sounds a bit far-fetched, actually. Messi has played in too many big matches.

More likely? Messi is being used badly ... or is a bit out of form ... or can't actually get excited about playing for a coach who has Argentina to four defeats in its last six matches.

Anyway, we keep coming back to Argentina, don't we?

Mostly, it's about big names and big stakes. Argentina still is at risk of being the biggest name not to get to South Africa. The world will be watching to see if Maradona -- and Messi -- can avoid that indignity.
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Sunday, October 11, 2009

Seven Matches, No New Finalists

Seven more qualifying matches played today for South Africa 2010 ... but no new team secured a berth in next year's big event.

Still stuck on 19 teams ... with 13 still to be determined.

The closest we came to getting to 20 teams was in Africa, where Nigeria scored three minutes into extra time to eke out a 1-0 victory over Mozambique. A Nigeria draw would have clinched Africa Group B for Tunisia, which won 1-0 at home over Kenya.

Biggest African disappointment this quadrennium?

Has to be Nigeria. This is a serious soccer nation, with the biggest population in Africa and lots of oil money, and a squad made up of players from some of Europe's elite leagues. Among its starters today: Midfielder Mikel John Obi (Chelsea), defender Joseph Yobo (Everton), midfielder Seyi Olafinjana (Hull City), midfielder Kalu Uche (Almeira) and his brother Ikechukwu Uche (Real Zaragoza), Taye Taiwo (Marseille). Etc.

Still, Nigeria suffered a scoreless tie at Mozambique, a team of unknowns, back in March, and was unable to make up for that gaffe by defeating Tunisia. Nigeria twice had one-goal leads in a home match with the Tunisians last month, but settled for a 2-2 tie.

Now, Nigeria needs help. It must win at Kenya while Tunisia loses at Mozambique, on Nov. 14. Tunisia hasn't exactly overpowered its opposition, either, but it has come through in pressure situations.

Another interesting match was Algeria's 3-1 home victory over Rwanda, a result that leaves the Algerians on the cusp of South Africa -- and its first World Cup finals since 1986. Algeria leads Egypt by three points in Group C, with the final match scheduled in Cairo on Nov. 14.

Algeria advances with a victory, a draw or even a one-goal loss, because it is plus-7 in goal differential to Egypt's plus-3. Egypt would advance with a 2-0 victory because it that would leave each team at plus-5 in goal-differential, and Egypt would win on the basis of a 3-2 lead in away goals. However, if Algeria scores one goal or more, Egypt would have to win by three goals.

Got all that?

The third match today worth noting was Brazil's 2-1 loss at Bolivia. It would be bigger news if Brazil hadn't already qualified, but it showed up with a representative side (Luisao, Maicon, Julio Cesar, Dani Alves, Ramires, Adriano) ... and still lost. Of course, winning with your best players is difficult, in La Paz, Bolivia, which sits 12,000 feet above sea level.

Another huge day of qualifying coming Wednesday, with 32 matches scheduled. At least four more participants in South Africa 2010 will be identified -- two from Europe, one from South America and one from Concacaf. Also, the 10 participants in home-and-home playoffs for five berths also will be known -- eight runners-up in Europe, the No. 4 team out of Concacaf and the No. 5 team from South America.
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Saturday, October 10, 2009

Eight More Qualify for South Africa

Great day for soccer fans. Matches decided in the final seconds. Clutch victories on the road. Eight more berths in South Africa 2010 assured ... but 13 still unknown with only a (comparative) handful of qualifying matches still to play.

Ten of the most significant results from today ... including all eight of the 2010 clinching matches, from least-rousing to most:

10. Malawi 1, Cote d'Ivoire 1. The least impressive and least surprising clinching performance of the day. Ivory Coast, as it has been known in English, led the weakest group in Africa, Group E, by six points with two matches to play, and needed only a tie today to clinch, and that's what it delivered. But not before trailing minnow Malawi untilthe 67th minute, when international star Didier Drogba scored for the Ivoirians.

9. Mexico 4, El Salvador 1. This one rated a zero on the Surprise Meter. Little El Salvador at Mexico, in Azteca ... the outcome was never in doubt. And neither was Mexico getting one of the three guaranteed Concacaf berths in South Africa 2010. Mexico turned things around back in Games 6, 7 and 8, when it came from behind to win at home against the United States, 2-1; then crushed Costa Rica, 3-0, at San Jose; and when El Tri survived a determined performance by Honduras to win 1-0 on a penalty over Honduras, at Azteca. Oh, and those games coincide with the accession of Javier Aguirre to the coach's job.

8. (tie) Argentina 2, Peru 1; Portugal 3, Hungary 0. Two of the glamour soccer powers at risk of not making the World Cup finals came through and now control their destiny. Martin Palermo can off the bench to score three minutes into stoppage time as Argentina avoided what would have been a humiliating and disastrous tie with bottom-feeder Peru, in Buenos Aires ... and Simao scored twice for Portugal in its romp and jumped into second in Europe Group 1 with only a home match with Malta left. That is, Portugal can begin planning to be in one of the four home-and-home second-place playoffs for a South Africa ticket.

7. Ecuador 1, Uruguay 2. The visitors rallied for a victory, at 9,300 feet above sea level, in Quito, to win on a penalty by Diego Forlan in extra time. Uruguay now gets arch-rival Argentina at home, in Montevideo, on Wednesday, with the fourth (and final) guaranteed berth from South America at stake. If Ecuador recovers to win at Chile, and there is a loser in the Uruguay-Argentina, Ecuador would finish fifth -- and go into the home-and-home playoff with the No. 4 squad out of Concacaf.

6. Serbia 5, Romania 0. Milan Javanovic scored twice as the Serbs clinched Group 7. Serbia goes to the finals for the first time since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.

5. Colombia 2, Chile 4. The Chileans overcame the shock of an early own goal in the thin air of Medellin (5,000 feet) to roll to victory and qualify for their first World Cup finals since 1998. Jorge Valdivia, who plays for Al Ain in the United Arab Emirates, scored the decisive goal in the 72nd minute.

4. Ireland 2, Italy 2. The Azzurri needed only a tie to clinch Europe Group 8, but it didn't look likely when Sean St. Ledger scored for Ireland in the 87th minute. However, Alberto Gilardino scored in the 90th minute to put Italy through to South Africa. Ireland's consolation prize: A berth in the second-place playoffs for one of the last four Euro berths in 2010.

3. Denmark 1, Sweden 0. It took 79 minutes before a goal was scored, but Jakob Poulsen's strike clinched Group 1 for Denmark and all but eliminated the Swedes from future consideration. Sweden now can finish second only if it defeats Albania and Portugal somehow loses at home to Malta. OK, let's just say it: Sweden is dead.

2. Honduras 2, United States 3. Little-known forward Conor Casey scored twice and Landon Donovan got the key third goal on a bending free kick as the U.S. secured one of Concacaf's three assured berths with an unexpected victory at San Pedro Sula. Honduras had been unbeaten and untied in eight previous home matches in this qualifying cycle, outscoring the opposition 12-2 in the final round. The U.S. will appear in its sixth consecutive finals after missing the previous nine.

1. Russia 0, Germany 1. In a match pitting the FIFA world-ranked Nos. 4 (Germany) and 5 (Russia) teams, the superpowers of Europe Group 4, Miroslav Klose scored in the 34th minute and Germany held on for 32-plus tense minutes -- in Moscow -- while playing with only 10 men, following the expulsion of defenseman Jerome Boateng. Russia figures to be a very formidable opponent in the second-place playoffs.
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Friday, October 9, 2009

On the Eve ...

Check here on Saturday for two posts on the day's qualifiers. One from early results, and one from the end of the day, after the Concacaf scores come in.

In between, I probably will be driving around Southern California looking for a place that is broadcasting the closed-circuit (!) United States match from Honduras. Yes, closed-circuit. Meaning it is not on television, live, anywhere. Which is insane. But I'll stop here. If you want to read more fulminating about this, check my other blog, oberjuerge.com Read more!

Russia Seeks Historic Victory vs. Germany

Russia and Germany. You think they would have a long soccer history.

They don't. Something about a couple of world wars, a revolution, etc. They didn't play between 1912 and 1955. Even since then, despite being fairly close, geographically, they have met only sporadically.

Still, there is some history here ... and the bottom line is this:

Russia never has defeated Germany (or West Germany) in an "official" match. "Official" being World Cup, European Cup or Olympic.

Which is germane to this moment, because Germany plays Russia in Moscow on Saturday with the lead in Europe Group 4 at stake. The winner almost certainly will finish first in the group and gain entry to South Africa 2010. The loser will fall into one of the four second-place playoffs -- with a berth at stake for the survivors.

This preview doesn't mention Russia's unfortunate soccer history vs. Germany, but in other material we had seen references to German dominance.

So we looked it up. The results:

Germany: Four victories, one tie, zero defeats. This is from a very handy English language history of every Russia international match. Going back to 1912.

That 4-0-1 German record includes a 1966 World Cup match (2-1), a 1972 Euro Cup meeting (3-0), a 1992 Euro Cup match (1-1), a 1996 Euro Cup match (3-0) and a Germany victory last year in this round of qualifying (2-1).

Germany has pretty much dominated the series, even when we include friendlies (but not matches between the Soviets and East Germany or the "United" German team at the 1956 Olympics).

In those other matches, Germany or West Germany is 13-2-3 vs. Russia.

Russia's last victory over Germany or West Germany? A friendly in 1956, 2-1.

So, Russia will be looking to make history -- as well as all but lock up its World Cup berth.

(And, yes, let's discuss the relevance of a tie, though we will deal with it in paranthetical matter. Ties are boring, but they often are strategically significant, and a tie ... clearly benefits Germany significantly. A tie with Russia, Germany remains a point ahead of Russia and then needs only to win, at home, against Finland, to be sure of finishing first. Finland is a competent side but will be playing for nothing, besides messing with the Germans, which I don't believe is a major issue in Finland at the moment. While Russia goes down to Azerbaijan for an almost certain victory. So Germany may just settle for 0-0, if it's that way in the second half, and hope it can defeat the Finns, which it probably can ... But back to thinking someone will win!)

This game also matches teams ranked Nos. 4 (Germany) and 6 (Russia) in the FIFA world rankings. Meaning it is rivaled only by last month's Brazil-Argentina match (pitting No. 1 vs. No. 8) for the highest-ranked teams meeting in the qualifying rounds.

Lots going on, in this one.
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Thursday, October 8, 2009

England, Jack Warner and the 2018 Bid

We have noted before, on this site, that the wrangling over who will host the World Cup in 2018 and 2022 ... sometimes seems to eclipse the run-up to the 2010 World Cup.

It seems a bit crazy, to be so agitated about tournaments nine and 13 years away, involving players who may not even be professionals yet ... but there it is. The would-be host countries are thinking about this. A lot. Even with a rash of crucial qualifiers coming up this weekend.

One of those countries is England, which wants to host either Cup, and generally is connected to the 2018 Cup -- because it will have been in the Americas in 2014, and away from Europe since 2006.

However, the highly influential (and controversial) Jack Warner, FIFA executive member and president of Concacaf, made lots of news in England this week by criticizing the English bid.

First, in this story, in which Warner said England's bid was creeping along when it ought to be galloping.

Then, in this more recent story, in which Warner said England needed to inject some energy into its bid by including, oh, David Beckham as one of its primary salesmen.

Warner is considered something of a boogieman in England, where he generally is considered to be hopelessly corrupt. But he is feared because he appears to wield so much power over the Concacaf voting bloc. And, by extension, over Sepp Blatter himself.

Blatter's accession to the FIFA presidency, remember, came via the parts of the world that were not Europe. Including Concacaf -- the Caribbean, North American and Central American confederation. (Warner is from Trinidad & Tobago.) Europe almost unanimously supported the Swede Lennart Johansson over Blatter, a Swiss.

Anyway, follow the links if you want to see a batch of England-oriented hand-wringing over their bid, and Jack Warner's criticism of it.
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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Irish Keeper Slams 'Seeding' in Europe Playoffs

It was one of those announcements that didn't get all that much attention, when it went down.

Last week, FIFA announced that the eight second-place European qualifying group finishers headed to the four home-and-home playoffs in November for berths in South Africa 2010 ... would be seeded.

That is, don't look for two traditionally powerful soccer nations to be randomly matched in the struggle for the final four Europe berths in the World Cup finals.

And a key player for one of the "lesser" potential group runners-up is not happy about this. At all. In fact, Shay Given, Ireland's keeper, was quoted in this story as calling it a "disgusting" situation.

Given does have a fair complaint: European clubs were not told, before qualifying began, that the second-place teams would be seeded.

As he notes, it seems only fair that all the procedures for getting to the 2010 World Cup should be clear and established even before the process began.

As the story notes, seeding would eliminate potential playoff matches such as France and Germany, who could each finish second in their groups.

If the standings remain as they are, now, when qualifying group play is completed next Wednesday, the seeded second-place nations would be Croatia, France, Greece and Russia. And they would be drawn against either Bosnia, Ireland, Slovenia or Sweden.

Thus, Ireland and Given would have to fight past a genuine soccer power, in the playoff, rather than have a chance to go up against historically lesser sides such as Slovenia and Bosnia.

Next time around, FIFA should make this clear. Let everyone know what the rules are. From Day 1.
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