Concacaf Turns into the Wild, Wild West

Two matches, two victories by teams lying in the middle of the standings, and suddenly the (deep breath) Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (Concacaf) qualifying process is a horse race.

Mexico 2, United States 1 ... Honduras 4, Costa Rica 0 ... and three points separate four teams atop the Concacaf standings, with four matches per team still to play.

Yes, this could go in any direction, and it's quite exciting. Certainly more exciting than, say, Costa Rica and the United States would like it to be, considering those two seemed to have pulled away a bit from the pack. Until Wednesday's matches.

Now it's Costa Rica with 12 points, Honduras and the U.S. with 10 and Mexico with 9, and sorting this out almost certainly will go down to the final day of qualifying, Oct. 14. It should be wild, and a goal here or there will separate first from fourth. And it is very important, indeed, to finish higher than fourth.

Here's why.

The top three finishers in the hexagonal, as it is often known here in the northern half of the Western Hemisphere, go directly to South Africa 2010.

The No. 4 team still has a shot to get to South Africa, but it detours through a home-and-home series with the No. 5 team out of South America. Winner (on aggregate) goes to South Africa, loser waits for 2014.

And that No. 5 South American team could be quite a test.

With four matches, per team, left in the South America qualifying, the No. 5 team is Ecuador. But Argentina is only two points ahead of the Ecuadorans, and Uruguay is only two back and Colombia and Venezuela are only three back. That's five teams in play for No. 5.

So, let's see, finish fourth in Concacaf and you could get ...

Argentina (and almost certain dismissal) ...

Or Ecuador or Colombia, which means serious altitude in Quito (9,300 feet/2,850 meters) or Bogota (8,300/2,650) or Medellin (4,900/1,500) and a road loss of a severity to be determined ...

Or Uruguay, which has won two World Cups, has a deep soccer culture and also a reputation for being the dirtiest team in FIFA ...

Or Venezuela, which would make it a political story for the U.S. or Honduras, each of which have major issues with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.

So, you want to finish in the top three. For sure.

What's ahead for the Concacaf top four? We'll take them in current standings order.

Costa Rica: Like the other three, Costa Rica has two matches left at home and two on the road. The Ticos have a reputation for not being very good outside San Jose, but the reality here is that they have three of the mere six points earned so far, in 18 matches, by road teams in the final round of qualifying (thanks to a victory at Trinidad & Tobago). If Costa Rica can win twice on its home field (vs. Mexico and T&T), that's 18 points and should render road matches at El Salvador and the U.S. moot. Probably the safest bet of the four.

Predicted finish: 19 points, second, on goal differential.

Honduras: The Catrachos actually are second now, thanks to the best goal differential (plus-4) in the group. Honduras gets T&T and the U.S. at home, and that's one easy victory and one tougher one ... and Mexico and El Salvador on the road, which would seem like a certain loss and one winnable match, but ... The El Salvador match is the last on the schedule, and that ought to be a break because the Salvadorans almost certainly will be eliminated by then. Except that these two countries are sports arch-rivals and were the participants in the infamous 1969 "Football War" that began after a World Cup qualifying match and ended after four days of fighting and more than 4,000 fatalities. So, yes, El Salvador will be playing with its First XI and with full-blooded passion, even if all it can hope to gain from the match is mess up Honduras' chances of getting to South Africa. Honduras needs to clinch in its next three matches, that is. It does not want to go to San Salvador needing a point to make the top three, even if it has clearly superior talent.

Predicted finish: 17 points, fourth.

United States: Mexico is famed for its homefield advantage, but the Americans rarely concede a qualifying point at home, which should put the Yankees in good stead when El Salvador and Costa Rica come to visit. A road match at T&T next month could yield a point or three for the Yanks, since T&T is all but out of contention, but the Americans shouldn't count on taking any points out of Honduras. The home match with Costa Rica is the final of the hexagonal, for the Americans, and if Costa Rica has already qualified, the U.S. could be playing against a less-than-full-strength and less-than-motivated Ticos team.

Predicted finish: 19 points, first on goal differential.

Mexico: Los Tricolores looked much sharper in defeating the U.S. 2-1 on Wednesday, but Mexico has become a bad road team of late. Indeed, Mexico has yet to gain a single "away" point in the hexagonal, in three matches, including a loss at El Salvador. It has matches at home against Honduras and El Salvador, and that should be one difficult victory and one easy one. It cannot count on points out of Costa Rica, but it ends at T&T, and the Trinidadians will be out of contention and perhaps ready to roll over for an opponent it harbors no special animus toward.

Predicted finish: 18 points, third. Read more!

A "Shoot to Kill" Attitude

We interrupt our stream of football-related posts to bring you more news on the nature of South African society. Which seems depressingly familiar to someone from the United States.

To wit: A story from the Johannesburg Sunday Times relating a rash of violent mall robberies and the strong (very strong) language used by police as to how best they can fight back against the criminals. The Times describes it as a "shoot to kill" frame of mind.

The crime and violence is centered in the province of Gauteng, the economic heart of South Africa -- and also home to the cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria -- and three of the 10 stadiums that will play host to 2010 World Cup matches. So, yes, these are issues that potential visitors to the World Cup might want to pay attention to.

The peg for this story, as we say in journalism, was the robbery of an armored car Tuesday and the shooting of two guards, both in the head, one fatally.

It seems to have provoked the local authorities into recognizing there is a problem crying for attention, and prompted this strong language from the provincial police chief, Khabisi Mosunkutu:

“[The police] must make sure they do not allow criminals the split second to aim their weapons at policemen and policewomen. I urge the members in blue to shoot if they feel threatened, and they must not miss.

“They must hit the target [so that] when the dust settles there should be no doubt as to who is in charge.”

Wow. Must be interesting to live in a country where cops can still talk like that and keep their jobs. Imagine a police chief of a major U.S. city (never mind a major European city) encouraging police to shoot sooner than later and "not miss." How long would that police chief keep his/her job?

Mosunkutu also is concerned that police are given "heavy-caliber automatic weapons" that will "match and outmatch the firepower of criminals." (Now that sounds more familiar, in the U.S.)

South Africa isn't the only dangerous country in the world, when it comes to what ought to be banal activities, like going to the mall. I live a few miles from South-Central Los Angeles, where violence seems endemic. And Long Beach isn't exactly as pacific as the nearby ocean.

But the U.S. has a worldwide reputation for violence. To a lot of us (say, sports fans), who haven't paid close attention to the daily life in South Africa, some of this may come as a surprise. In short, South Africa has at least as much violence (and apparently more) than the U.S.

Soccer fans who plan on visiting should know this before they decide to travel to the 2010 World Cup. "Forewarned is forearmed," and all.
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Mexico, Norway Win, Improve SA 2010 Chances

Two countries with significant World Cup history took steps toward a trip to South Africa 2010 today. Mexico came from behind to defeat its regional arch-rival, the United States, 2-1; and Norway thrashed Scotland in Europe Group 9 to reintroduce itself to contention for second place -- and potential advancement.

Other qualifiers already in, and what they mean:

Germany 2 at Azerbaijan 0: Germany stays atop Group 4 and keeps up the pressure on Russia, which is four points back with a game in hand. The group winner probably will be decided when Germany plays in Moscow on Oct. 10.

Croatia 3 at Belarus 1: Ivica Olic scored twice as Croatia kept alive its slim hopes of catching England atop Group 6, put some pressure on Ukraine in the battle for second and essentially eliminated Belarus.

France 1 at Faroe Islands 0: Andre-Pierre Gignac scored in the 42nd minute as France was anything but convincing against the Group 7 minnow and moved within five points of group leader Serbia -- with four matches to play vs. Serbia's three. France also shored up its grip on second place over Lithuania.

At least one fairly significant match remains to be played today -- Costa Rica at Honduras.

In Oslo, Norway revived its campaign with a Group 9 rout of the Scots, who had hoped to move into the clear in second place behind already qualified Holland. Scotland has seven points, as does Macedonia, and Norway is now in it with six points. Each of those three has three matches left, and if one of them can get to, say, 12 points, it has a shot of getting into the four home-and-home playoffs of the eight best European group runnersup.

The biggest game was the one played in Mexico City, where Mexico conceded a ninth-minute goal by Charlie Davies (after an exquisite pass from Landon Donovan). It gave the U.S. a lead on Mexico soil for the first time, but it was not to stand up.

Los Tricolores steadily applied pressure on the visitors thereafter, who seemed content to surrender about 75 percent of the field, and Mexico picked up a pair of goals to improve to 23-0-1 at home, all-time (and 19-0-1 at Azteca), against the norte americanos.

Mexico's confidence and resolve was rewarded by a nice goal from 25 yards by Israel Castro in the 19th minute, a well-struck ball that glanced off the underside of the crossbar and bounced down into the goal. The winner came in the 82nd minute, when Efrain Juarez ran past Donovan in the box and turned the corner before knocking a pass back to recent sub Miguel Sabah, who was unmarked as he popped the ball into the goal from about 7 yards.

Mexico almost had to win, and now that it has it remains very much in the mix for one of Concacaf's three automatic berths and, worst-case, seems positioned to get the No. 4 spot -- which means a home-and-home with the No. 5 out of South America.

The United States remains stuck at 10 points, only one ahead of Mexico. Four matches remain for each.

The next big day in World Cup qualifying: Sept. 5. Read more!

Landon Donovan Q&A on USA's Mexico Match

Landon Donovan of the U.S. national team is in Mexico City, resting up for a qualifying match tomorrow vs. archrival Mexico at Azteca Stadium.

Donovan is making his third appearance in Azteca, more than any other player on the U.S. squad.

We asked him several questions about the difficulties of playing Mexico in Mexico, where the U.S. national team has never won in 23 tries, and at Azteca, where the Yankees are 0-18-1.

Here are my questions and his answers:

Question: Everyone is better at home. Why is Mexico massively better at home?

Answer: Mexico uses all the outside influences to their advantage and let's not forget that they are a top team in the world.

Q: What aspect of the Azteca experience is most difficult for you?

A: The altitude is the hardest part to deal with. Usually with altitude, you get past it after 15-20 minutes, but I was never able to catch my breath last time we played here.

Q: Did Mexico gain confidence from the 5-0 victory over the U.S.'s second XI in the Gold Cup final?

A: Mexico certainly gained confidence from the GC Final, no question.

Q: What's up with the 3 p.m. (Mexico time) kickoff on a weekday? Is that some sort of gamesmanship?

A: They want it to be as hot as possible when the game starts and I'm positive they made it at 3:00 PM on purpose.

Q: You once told me that Mexico is one of your two favorite sides to beat, along with Germany. What are your feelings about El Tri now?

A: Mexico are a very good team that find themselves in a difficult position right now in qualifying. I still believe they will qualify but it'll be very difficult if we beat them tomorrow.

Q: A victory would put the U.S. very close to qualifying. But would finally winning at Azteca and/or messing with Mexico's World Cup aspirations be almost as sweet?

A: Qualifying is the No. 1 goal but it would incredible to do something that no U.S. team has ever done and that only one team has done in the last 50 years.

Q: Have you seen much of Giovani dos Santos, the 20-year-old Mexico forward, and do you have an opinion on him?

A: Giovani is a player with a ton of talent and is starting to produce for the National Team. If he plays, we will certainly have our hands full.

Read more!

Qualifier preview: USA at Mexico

With apologies to Germany and Croatia and Honduras and Belarus and the other 10 sides playing, this is the biggest World Cup qualifying match of the eight being played on Wednesday.

The United States vs. Mexico at Estadio Azteca.

Not only is it critical to the course of World Cup qualifying in Concacaf, this game matches the two greatest rivals in the region. Whenever they play, even if it were in a "friendly" in an empty stadium, it is sure to be a match of high energy and high emotion.

Among the story lines for this one ...

--Mexico's panic. El Tri, as Mexicans refer to their team, is in trouble in Concacaf qualifying, and everyone in the country knows it would be a scandal if its team doesn't advance to South Africa. Mexico stands fourth in Concacaf qualifying standings; the top three in the group are assured berths in the 2010 World Cup; No. 4 goes into a home-and-home series with the No. 5 out of South America, which will be the hard way to get to South Africa. Mexico cannot (in its fans' minds) finish behind Costa Rica and Honduras as well as the hated Yanqis.

--America's drought. The U.S. has not won a match in Mexico in 23 tries and is 0-18-1 at Azteca. All it has to show for all those matches is a scoreless tie in 1997. American players very much want to erase that zero from the 0-22-1 south-of-the-border record.

--American revenge. Mexico just annihilated the U.S. 5-0 in the championship of the Gold Cup, the hemispheric championship. Granted, neither team was at full strength (the U.S. fielded a second team from front to back), but that sort of overwhelming result rankled in the States, and the Yanks will be keen to expunge the memory.

--American goals. The U.S. stands on 12 points halfway through qualifying. A road victory would be an enormous boost in the push to South Africa. In fact, were the Yanks to vault to 15 points, with Mexico stuck at 6, it would create a situation in which it would be difficult to envision the Americans not qualifying, even with four matches still to play.

--The Azteca Factor. Mexico City's big stadium is one of the most difficult venues in the world. (Mexico has lost a World Cup qualifier in Azteca only once, to Costa Rica in 2001.) Visitors must deal with altitude (7,200 feet, or 2,200 meters), severe air pollution, highly partisan crowds of 100,000-plus and, of course, a Mexico team that is convinced it cannot lose. Also, Mexican federation officials have added one more bit of gamesmanship to this one, scheduling kickoff for 3 p.m. (11 p.m. GMT), on a weekday, which can only be a hope that temperatures will be uncomfortably high for the oxygen-deprived visitors.

--Who is No. 1? Mexican fans are hard-wired to believe that El Tri is the elite team in the region. Even though the U.S. is 13-8-8 vs. Mexico since 1990. Even though the U.S. eliminated Mexico from the 2002 World Cup. Mexican fans -- and players -- need that Azteca victory fix to keep on believing. "They're a rival to be respected, but we know how they play," Mexico keeper Guillermo Ochoa said of the Americans. "Furthermore we're physically fitter and better players."

--International relations. The U.S. and Mexico have a long and complicated relationship, and for the most part the Yanqis have dominated Mexico economically and militarily, and that leads to antipathy south of the Rio Grande River, where the citizenry is convinced that America exploits and abuses Mexican immigrants (illegal or otherwise) to the States. That sort of collective animus is never far from the surface of the relationship.

The U.S., naturally, has recalled its best players. That includes Everton goalkeeper Tim Howard, Fulham midfielder Clint Dempsey, AC Milan defender Oguchi Onyewu and Landon Donovan, top scorer in U.S. soccer history and the most accomplished American in Major League Soccer, with the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Mexico also will be close to full strength. Gifted young forwards Giovani dos Santos (Tottenham) and Carlos Vela (Arsenal) lead the expanding list of Mexicans who are succeeding overseas, which also includes defenders Ricardo Osorio (Stuttgart) and Rafael Marquez (Barcelona), though the latter is out with an injury. Cuauhtemoc Blanco has been called in, too, and the Chicago Fire midfielder often gives the Yanqis fits.

Mexico prefers to believe that it is back on track now that native son Javier Aguirre is back at coach, replacing the Swede Sven-Goran Ericksson.

Matches in this rivalry tend to look rather alike, especially over the past few decades, with Mexico pressing from kickoff and the U.S. looking to counterattack.

And the way these matches tend to finish is, if Mexico scores early, it can pull the Americans out of their defensive posture and win by a score as big as, say, 5-0. However, if the Americans score first, Mexico tends to overreact, loses its composure and rarely catches up.

The conflict of styles makes for interesting football, and the qualities of the players are at odds, as well. Mexico's players tend to have significantly greater skill on the ball, prefer to play it on the ground, have a quicker first step and tend to score in the run of play. The American side inevitably is bigger and might be faster in a long dash, enjoys playing in the air and is likely to score on restarts.

Almost always, it makes for great drama. It is unlikely to be matched by any other qualifier being contested on Wednesday. Read more!

Qualifier preview: Croatia at Belarus

Croatia and Belarus? This game matters?

Croatia has appeared in three consecutive World Cups, famously finishing third in France 1998, losing only to France in the semifinals.

Meanwhile, Belarus has never played in any major tournament, and not many people think it will any time soon, either.

Yet the Belarussians have their fate largely in their hands. They are lying fourth in Europe's Group 6 standings, and, yes, have no chance to catch top-of-the-table England. But Belarus has nine points from five matches, and trails Croatia and Ukraine (each of which have played six matches) by two points for second place -- and second place means a home-and-home playoff with another second-place finisher for a berth in South Africa 2010.

The match Wednesday in Minsk is crucial. Belarus almost has to win to energize its campaign, while Croatia could nearly eliminate one of its key competitors for second place if it can win on the road.

Factors to consider include ...

--Belarus gets Croatia in back-to-back matches (Wednesday, and Sept. 5 at Zagreb). A victory and a draw would vault Belarus past Croatia and startle the football world.

--Belarus also has a home match vs. Ukraine, on Sept. 9, and a victory in that one could leave it alone in second.

--Belarus ends its qualifying run against England, in London, on Oct.14, and England has been rampant in qualifying so far. However, England will have clinched first place (and a qualifying berth) a month before, and may not field its First XI.

--Belarus doesn't yet have a signature victory in Group 6 qualifying; its nine points come from a pair of victories over little Andorra and one over hapless Kazakhstan. Its defeats were 1-0 at Ukraine and 3-1 at home vs. England.

--Croatia needs a result in Minsk not just to dishearten the Belarussians, it needs a point (or three) to keep Ukraine at bay; the Ukrainians have two matches with Andorra among its final four, and that is an automatic six points -- as well as opportunities to push its goal differential (the first tiebreakter) farther north.

Belarus hopes center on attacking midfielder Aleksandr Hleb, who is on loan to VfB Stuttgart from Barcelona. Hleb, nicknamed The Sorceror's Apprentice during an earlier stay in Stuttgart, is widely considered the best player in the history of Belarus football. He will need to be on his game for the underdogs to have their day.

Timofei Kalachev, a Belarus-based midfielder, has three goals in qualifying, top on the Belarus side. Other stalwarts include Seria A Bari-based forward Vitaly Kutuzov, defender Dimitry Verkhovtsov and goalkeeper Yuri Zhevnov, who plays for FC Moscow.

Croatia's side is better known in the West because of that big run in the 1998 World Cup ... and because Croatia knocked England out of Euro 2008 with a pair of victories in qualifying.

Croatia also has more players in top European leagues. The biggest name is midfielder Luka Modric, who plays at Tottenham. Modric scored a late goal that enabled Croatia to salvage a 2-2 tie at home vs. Ukraine.

Other important players include Bayern Munich forward Ivica Olic, Tottenham-based defender Vedran Corluka, Spartak Moscow goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa and Australia-born central defender Josip Simunic, who plays for Bundesliga upstart Hoffenheim.

If past form means anything, battle-tested Croatia shows up in Minsk, paddles the never-been-anywhere Belarussians, and then turns its attention to staying ahead of the Ukraine.

But the reality of Belarus controlling its own destiny, and getting its two most important matches at home, could propel the former Soviet republic to heights never before associated with its national team. Read more!

Qualifier preview: Costa Rica at Honduras

This is Game 2 of our four-part series of previews leading up to Wednesday, the day when eight World Cup qualifying matches are played.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras, in the steamy port city of San Pedro Sula.

This is a sort of Zero Hour for the Hondurans, who stand third in the Concacaf table midway through the qualifying process. To keep their slight lead over fourth-place Mexico, Honduras needs to win at home against the group-leading Ticos.

The top three finishers in the Concacaf tournament go to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup.

The No. 4 finisher goes into a home-and-home playoff with the No. 5 team out of South America, and Honduras will be an underdog to advance over whomever that No. 5 team is.

So, yes, the Hondurans want to stay ahead of Mexico -- and could even move into second place if the U.S. loses to Mexico earlier Wednesday, and would then trail table-leading Costa Rica by only two points.

But a defeat, at home ...

A defeat, at home ... could be ruinous for the Hondurans, who must still play at Mexico and El Salvador. While a road victory by the Ticos would all but put them into the 2010 World Cup.

To watch the two squads warm up is to like the Catrachos, as the Hondurans are known. They clearly are the bigger and more physical side, and they appear to have an edge in speed, too.

They have quality attacking players in enough depth -- Carlos Costly, Carlos Pavon, Tottenham-based midfielder Wilson Palacios, Parma-based midfielder (and free-kick specialist) Julio "Rambo" de Leon, FC Toronto standout Amado Guevara and even Gold Cup revelation George Welcome -- that they should be able to withstand the absence of high-profile striker David Suazo (of Inter Milan), who will miss the match with a leg injury.

Costa Rica, often a more elegant and cohesive side, won at home against Honduras, 2-0, back in February, on a pair of second-half goals from forward Andy Furtado.

But the Ticos are not nearly as formidable away from their home in San Jose, having lost 2-0 at Mexico and winning only 3-2 at bottom-of-the-table Trinidad & Tobago. Also, they rarely win on Honduran soil, and what has been such a promising start to qualifying could founder if they can't pick up another point or three in their three remaining road games -- against Honduras, El Salvador and the United States.

Walter Centeno, captain and midfielder, has been Costa Rica's best player so far. But the Ticos also have gotten lots of offense from playmaking midfielder Celso Borges and forward Bryan Ruiz.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras is considered the best rivalry in Central America. Costa Rica has had slightly the better of it, leading the series 19-14-16 and, more importantly, has reached the World Cup finals three times (1990, 2002, 2006) since Honduras made its one and only appearance, in 1982.

Hondurans have made a greater impact on the international club scene, but the Catrachos keep finding themselves looking up at the Ticos in the standings. They can begin to rectify that issue on Wednesday.

Former Honduras coach Jose de la Paz, who led the 1982 Catrachos to the World Cup finals in Spain, is confident of Honduran victory.

"Honduras are an experienced side and should beat Costa Rica, while they've only beaten us once at home in the last 40 years or so," said De la Paz, according to fifa.com. "I think that we'll win the game because we've got a better team and will have the fans behind us, which has been decisive in the past. If you go through each team one by one, there's no doubt that the Honduran players are better."
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