Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Qualifier preview: USA at Mexico

With apologies to Germany and Croatia and Honduras and Belarus and the other 10 sides playing, this is the biggest World Cup qualifying match of the eight being played on Wednesday.

The United States vs. Mexico at Estadio Azteca.

Not only is it critical to the course of World Cup qualifying in Concacaf, this game matches the two greatest rivals in the region. Whenever they play, even if it were in a "friendly" in an empty stadium, it is sure to be a match of high energy and high emotion.

Among the story lines for this one ...

--Mexico's panic. El Tri, as Mexicans refer to their team, is in trouble in Concacaf qualifying, and everyone in the country knows it would be a scandal if its team doesn't advance to South Africa. Mexico stands fourth in Concacaf qualifying standings; the top three in the group are assured berths in the 2010 World Cup; No. 4 goes into a home-and-home series with the No. 5 out of South America, which will be the hard way to get to South Africa. Mexico cannot (in its fans' minds) finish behind Costa Rica and Honduras as well as the hated Yanqis.

--America's drought. The U.S. has not won a match in Mexico in 23 tries and is 0-18-1 at Azteca. All it has to show for all those matches is a scoreless tie in 1997. American players very much want to erase that zero from the 0-22-1 south-of-the-border record.

--American revenge. Mexico just annihilated the U.S. 5-0 in the championship of the Gold Cup, the hemispheric championship. Granted, neither team was at full strength (the U.S. fielded a second team from front to back), but that sort of overwhelming result rankled in the States, and the Yanks will be keen to expunge the memory.

--American goals. The U.S. stands on 12 points halfway through qualifying. A road victory would be an enormous boost in the push to South Africa. In fact, were the Yanks to vault to 15 points, with Mexico stuck at 6, it would create a situation in which it would be difficult to envision the Americans not qualifying, even with four matches still to play.

--The Azteca Factor. Mexico City's big stadium is one of the most difficult venues in the world. (Mexico has lost a World Cup qualifier in Azteca only once, to Costa Rica in 2001.) Visitors must deal with altitude (7,200 feet, or 2,200 meters), severe air pollution, highly partisan crowds of 100,000-plus and, of course, a Mexico team that is convinced it cannot lose. Also, Mexican federation officials have added one more bit of gamesmanship to this one, scheduling kickoff for 3 p.m. (11 p.m. GMT), on a weekday, which can only be a hope that temperatures will be uncomfortably high for the oxygen-deprived visitors.

--Who is No. 1? Mexican fans are hard-wired to believe that El Tri is the elite team in the region. Even though the U.S. is 13-8-8 vs. Mexico since 1990. Even though the U.S. eliminated Mexico from the 2002 World Cup. Mexican fans -- and players -- need that Azteca victory fix to keep on believing. "They're a rival to be respected, but we know how they play," Mexico keeper Guillermo Ochoa said of the Americans. "Furthermore we're physically fitter and better players."

--International relations. The U.S. and Mexico have a long and complicated relationship, and for the most part the Yanqis have dominated Mexico economically and militarily, and that leads to antipathy south of the Rio Grande River, where the citizenry is convinced that America exploits and abuses Mexican immigrants (illegal or otherwise) to the States. That sort of collective animus is never far from the surface of the relationship.

The U.S., naturally, has recalled its best players. That includes Everton goalkeeper Tim Howard, Fulham midfielder Clint Dempsey, AC Milan defender Oguchi Onyewu and Landon Donovan, top scorer in U.S. soccer history and the most accomplished American in Major League Soccer, with the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Mexico also will be close to full strength. Gifted young forwards Giovani dos Santos (Tottenham) and Carlos Vela (Arsenal) lead the expanding list of Mexicans who are succeeding overseas, which also includes defenders Ricardo Osorio (Stuttgart) and Rafael Marquez (Barcelona), though the latter is out with an injury. Cuauhtemoc Blanco has been called in, too, and the Chicago Fire midfielder often gives the Yanqis fits.

Mexico prefers to believe that it is back on track now that native son Javier Aguirre is back at coach, replacing the Swede Sven-Goran Ericksson.

Matches in this rivalry tend to look rather alike, especially over the past few decades, with Mexico pressing from kickoff and the U.S. looking to counterattack.

And the way these matches tend to finish is, if Mexico scores early, it can pull the Americans out of their defensive posture and win by a score as big as, say, 5-0. However, if the Americans score first, Mexico tends to overreact, loses its composure and rarely catches up.

The conflict of styles makes for interesting football, and the qualities of the players are at odds, as well. Mexico's players tend to have significantly greater skill on the ball, prefer to play it on the ground, have a quicker first step and tend to score in the run of play. The American side inevitably is bigger and might be faster in a long dash, enjoys playing in the air and is likely to score on restarts.

Almost always, it makes for great drama. It is unlikely to be matched by any other qualifier being contested on Wednesday.
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Monday, August 10, 2009

Qualifier preview: Croatia at Belarus

Croatia and Belarus? This game matters?

Croatia has appeared in three consecutive World Cups, famously finishing third in France 1998, losing only to France in the semifinals.

Meanwhile, Belarus has never played in any major tournament, and not many people think it will any time soon, either.

Yet the Belarussians have their fate largely in their hands. They are lying fourth in Europe's Group 6 standings, and, yes, have no chance to catch top-of-the-table England. But Belarus has nine points from five matches, and trails Croatia and Ukraine (each of which have played six matches) by two points for second place -- and second place means a home-and-home playoff with another second-place finisher for a berth in South Africa 2010.

The match Wednesday in Minsk is crucial. Belarus almost has to win to energize its campaign, while Croatia could nearly eliminate one of its key competitors for second place if it can win on the road.

Factors to consider include ...

--Belarus gets Croatia in back-to-back matches (Wednesday, and Sept. 5 at Zagreb). A victory and a draw would vault Belarus past Croatia and startle the football world.

--Belarus also has a home match vs. Ukraine, on Sept. 9, and a victory in that one could leave it alone in second.

--Belarus ends its qualifying run against England, in London, on Oct.14, and England has been rampant in qualifying so far. However, England will have clinched first place (and a qualifying berth) a month before, and may not field its First XI.

--Belarus doesn't yet have a signature victory in Group 6 qualifying; its nine points come from a pair of victories over little Andorra and one over hapless Kazakhstan. Its defeats were 1-0 at Ukraine and 3-1 at home vs. England.

--Croatia needs a result in Minsk not just to dishearten the Belarussians, it needs a point (or three) to keep Ukraine at bay; the Ukrainians have two matches with Andorra among its final four, and that is an automatic six points -- as well as opportunities to push its goal differential (the first tiebreakter) farther north.

Belarus hopes center on attacking midfielder Aleksandr Hleb, who is on loan to VfB Stuttgart from Barcelona. Hleb, nicknamed The Sorceror's Apprentice during an earlier stay in Stuttgart, is widely considered the best player in the history of Belarus football. He will need to be on his game for the underdogs to have their day.

Timofei Kalachev, a Belarus-based midfielder, has three goals in qualifying, top on the Belarus side. Other stalwarts include Seria A Bari-based forward Vitaly Kutuzov, defender Dimitry Verkhovtsov and goalkeeper Yuri Zhevnov, who plays for FC Moscow.

Croatia's side is better known in the West because of that big run in the 1998 World Cup ... and because Croatia knocked England out of Euro 2008 with a pair of victories in qualifying.

Croatia also has more players in top European leagues. The biggest name is midfielder Luka Modric, who plays at Tottenham. Modric scored a late goal that enabled Croatia to salvage a 2-2 tie at home vs. Ukraine.

Other important players include Bayern Munich forward Ivica Olic, Tottenham-based defender Vedran Corluka, Spartak Moscow goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa and Australia-born central defender Josip Simunic, who plays for Bundesliga upstart Hoffenheim.

If past form means anything, battle-tested Croatia shows up in Minsk, paddles the never-been-anywhere Belarussians, and then turns its attention to staying ahead of the Ukraine.

But the reality of Belarus controlling its own destiny, and getting its two most important matches at home, could propel the former Soviet republic to heights never before associated with its national team.
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Sunday, August 9, 2009

Qualifier preview: Costa Rica at Honduras

This is Game 2 of our four-part series of previews leading up to Wednesday, the day when eight World Cup qualifying matches are played.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras, in the steamy port city of San Pedro Sula.

This is a sort of Zero Hour for the Hondurans, who stand third in the Concacaf table midway through the qualifying process. To keep their slight lead over fourth-place Mexico, Honduras needs to win at home against the group-leading Ticos.

The top three finishers in the Concacaf tournament go to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup.

The No. 4 finisher goes into a home-and-home playoff with the No. 5 team out of South America, and Honduras will be an underdog to advance over whomever that No. 5 team is.

So, yes, the Hondurans want to stay ahead of Mexico -- and could even move into second place if the U.S. loses to Mexico earlier Wednesday, and would then trail table-leading Costa Rica by only two points.

But a defeat, at home ...

A defeat, at home ... could be ruinous for the Hondurans, who must still play at Mexico and El Salvador. While a road victory by the Ticos would all but put them into the 2010 World Cup.

To watch the two squads warm up is to like the Catrachos, as the Hondurans are known. They clearly are the bigger and more physical side, and they appear to have an edge in speed, too.

They have quality attacking players in enough depth -- Carlos Costly, Carlos Pavon, Tottenham-based midfielder Wilson Palacios, Parma-based midfielder (and free-kick specialist) Julio "Rambo" de Leon, FC Toronto standout Amado Guevara and even Gold Cup revelation George Welcome -- that they should be able to withstand the absence of high-profile striker David Suazo (of Inter Milan), who will miss the match with a leg injury.

Costa Rica, often a more elegant and cohesive side, won at home against Honduras, 2-0, back in February, on a pair of second-half goals from forward Andy Furtado.

But the Ticos are not nearly as formidable away from their home in San Jose, having lost 2-0 at Mexico and winning only 3-2 at bottom-of-the-table Trinidad & Tobago. Also, they rarely win on Honduran soil, and what has been such a promising start to qualifying could founder if they can't pick up another point or three in their three remaining road games -- against Honduras, El Salvador and the United States.

Walter Centeno, captain and midfielder, has been Costa Rica's best player so far. But the Ticos also have gotten lots of offense from playmaking midfielder Celso Borges and forward Bryan Ruiz.

Costa Rica vs. Honduras is considered the best rivalry in Central America. Costa Rica has had slightly the better of it, leading the series 19-14-16 and, more importantly, has reached the World Cup finals three times (1990, 2002, 2006) since Honduras made its one and only appearance, in 1982.

Hondurans have made a greater impact on the international club scene, but the Catrachos keep finding themselves looking up at the Ticos in the standings. They can begin to rectify that issue on Wednesday.

Former Honduras coach Jose de la Paz, who led the 1982 Catrachos to the World Cup finals in Spain, is confident of Honduran victory.

"Honduras are an experienced side and should beat Costa Rica, while they've only beaten us once at home in the last 40 years or so," said De la Paz, according to fifa.com. "I think that we'll win the game because we've got a better team and will have the fans behind us, which has been decisive in the past. If you go through each team one by one, there's no doubt that the Honduran players are better."
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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Qualifier preview: Germany at Azerbaijan

Eight World Cup qualifying matches are scheduled for Aug. 12 -- next Wednesday, that is -- and we are going to take a closer look at four of those matches in our next four entries on this site.

Normally, Germany and Azerbaijan wouldn't be the sort of match that could aspire to have the word "crucial" associated with it. The Germans are 5-0-1 so far in Europe's Group 4, good for 16 points and the group lead. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is 0-4-1, good for 1 point, and is completely out of contention.

But, but ... this is the sort of "trap" game that could cost Germany a precious point -- or three -- as it attempts to outpace Russia atop Group 4 -- and Russia is only one point back, with a 5-1-0 mark, the one defeat coming against Germany, 2-1, at Dortmund last October. Russia gets a return match this October, and the Germans don't want Russia to be able to take the group lead with a home victory.

Remember ...

... only the winners of Europe's nine groups clinch berths in South Africa 2010. The eight best second-place finishers are chucked into a home-and-home pair of matches against another second-place team, and only four will survive that roulette spin to go to the World Cup final.

Thus, the difference between finishing first and finishing second in European qualifying is enormous, and every point is crucial. Especially points accrued in away games -- and this is Germany's last on the road, aside from the trip to Russia.

Why shouldn't Azerbaijan be easy pickings? The Azeris haven't managed so much as a goal in five matches, including a scoreless draw against little Liechtenstein.

But consider:

--The Azeris have conceded a mere five goals in their five matches, and never more than one -- aside from a 2-0 defeat vs. Russia at Moscow, back in March.

--Azerbaijan, which lies on the west coast of the Caspian Sea, is the most distant country in UEFA, aside from neighboring Kazakhstan. It is more than 2,000 air miles from Frankfurt to Baku, and that is a long trip, indeed, for Western European players, and into an environment that is far more like the Middle East or Asia than the tidy and well-ordered Europe that Germany's players know.

--The Azeris are coached by German native Berti Vogts, who led Germany to the 1996 Euro Cup championship in England (and later coached Scotland, Kuwait, Nigeria with less success). Vogts certainly understands German football and German players, and that could make for a tougher time, when the Germans are far from home.

Germany will count on its strike force of Michael Ballack, who is recovering from a toe fracture suffered during Chelsea's preseason tour of the United States; Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski to come up with that one goal that could keep the Germans a step ahead of the Russians.

The Azeris are not well known in the West. Rashad Sadigov, who last season played for an also-ran in Turkey's top league, is perhaps their most dangerous attacking player. Farhad Valiyev was in goal for Azerbaijan in its most recent qualifier, a 1-0 home loss to Wales in June. In that Wales game, commentators noted that the match was very rough. The Germans are no shrinking violets, but if a game gets dirty, odd things are even more likely to happen.

This has the feel of a 1-0 score to it, and the Germans will be looking for that one goal early to try to dampen the enthusiasm of the home crowd. If the game is 0-0 for any length of time, well, the atmosphere could become electric and the Azeris could come to believe they are one lucky strike away from making history by upsetting one of the globe's elite sides and, perhaps, turning the course of qualifying in Group 4.
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Friday, August 7, 2009

Race Remains a Big Issue in South Africa

Even Americans, who generally are intellectually challenged when it comes to international relations, know that South Africa has race issues.

Well, those race issues haven't gone away with the end of the "apartheid" system that kept the minority whites in control of the government from 1948-94. The award of the 2010 World Cup hasn't made things all hunky-dory, either.

Earlier this week, Julius Malema, leader of the African National Congress Youth League, got lots of attention for complaining that the ANC-run government has "too many minorities" in the financial sector.

"Minorities," in South Africa, being non-blacks.

The Johannesburg Sunday Times, my favorite newspaper in South Africa (at least, from evaluating Web sites), did a story about Malema's comments, and days later it remains the "most popular" story on the site.

But the Times put a headline on the story that would not pass political-correctness muster, in the U.S.

"Too many Indians, chief" is the Web headline. Apparently a reference intended to make the paper's English-speaking readers think of American Indians. (And perhaps the old "too many chiefs, not enough Indians" idiom.) When, actually, the Indians involved in the story appear to have ancestral ties to India, the country. And the other minorities appear to be of European origin, just by guessing from their surnames.

The gist of the story:
That the ANC Youth League leader believes South Africa president Jacob Zuma is perpetuating anti-black-African stereotypes by putting non-blacks into positions of authority in the business/finance part of his government. While giving all the security-related government positions to black South Africans.

The upshot: That the black president of South Africa is contributing to the perception that black Africans can handle guns ... but not bank accounts.

What is just as interesting as the finance/security aspect of things ... is that the head of a major ANC political arm can complain about "too many minorities" in the government -- and thatit is considered a fair and proper topic for discussion. Compare that to the U.S., where not much of anyone outside the Ku Klux Klan would complain in a public forum about "too many minorities" in the government. And, note, that it is the South African government that is on the defensive here, not the ANC Youth League boss.

The point of this being, on this blog, that race is a major, major issue in South Africa, and we need to keep that in mind to even begin to understand the nation that will hold the 2010 World Cup.
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Thursday, August 6, 2009

Terror Threats and the 2010 World Cup

Since Munich 1972, organizers of any major sports events have to prepare for this: Terrorist acts that interrupt/ruin/scar forever their event.

Ahead of the 2010 World Cup, South African authorities say they are preparing for terror threats. Even though Al Qaeda, etc., hasn't been known to act on South African territory, the police spokesman spoke about visiting teams/fans that could "import the threat of a terrorism attack" into the country.

To wit: The United States and England ...
which have been military active in the Middle East and have been targeted by terror attacks in the past.

While the idea of a large-scale, 9/11-style attack is sobering ... the story linked (above) concedes that the more real and present danger is generic crime and violence in South Africa. The story notes that 50 people are murdered every day in South Africa, a rate that outstrips the United States -- even though the U.S., famous for its gun violence, has more than six times South Africa's population.

Anyway, yes, there is a need to be prepared. And that means looking for bombs and bombers ... even when the odds of a visiting Brit or Yank being mugged or shot are far higher.
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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

South Africa Q&A with Landon Donovan

Landon Donovan, the U.S. international midfielder, was in South Africa for nearly all of June while playing with the team that finished second, to Brazil, in the Confederations Cup -- a sort of test tournament for the 2010 World Cup.

I was hoping to get some input on this blog from someone who was there, for the Confed Cup, and Landon graciously responded to a set of questions I sent to him.

My queries, and his replies:

Question: What most impressed you about the handling of the Confederations Cup?

Answer: I think a lot of us didn't know what to expect and, given all the rumors we had heard, we were expecting the worst. However, I was completely impressed with the organization of the event and didn't have any complaints.

Q: What is most memorable South African part of the event? That is, something about the host country and not about the matches you and the U.S. played.

A: Going on a Nature Ride was something I will never forget. It's one thing to go to a zoo in America and see these animals, but it's a whole other thing to see them interacting in their natural environment.

Q: The horns, the vuvuzelas. Have an opinion on them?

A: It's part of their soccer culture and we need to accept that. They were a little annoying at first but we got used to them as the tournament went on.

Q: What did you see that the organizers could do better, next summer?

A: I honestly didn't have any complaints. The people were friendly, competent, and helpful.

Q: Do you feel as if you have a good sense of the country? Did you see any of the poorer parts of the country? Can you compare South Africa to any place on the planet you've been before?

A: South Africa is incomparable to anywhere I've ever been. There were certainly some "poorer" places but the people were very happy and I really enjoyed being there.

Q: Do you have any sense about whether South Africa fans like Americans or the U.S. team?

A: I think we grew on the South African people as we got deeper into the tournament. They seemed to like us from the day we got there and we were very friendly with the people throughout.

Q: If the weather next summer is similar (cool, a little wet), what might that mean for the competition?

A: It will be interesting to have a World Cup in cold weather. The players actually prefer it because it makes the game faster. Hopefully it doesn't snow ...

Q: How much do U.S. players know about South Africa and its history? Was there a sense of anything special going on there ... or was it just another tournament?

A: It's hard to experience their culture and history the way we would like to because we are confined to the hotel and practice fields for most of the time. Hopefully after the World Cup we can spend some time learning more.
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